Stepping Back From The Ledge...Storm Should Stay South
It turns out the northern trend from the models from this morning has been put to bed and put to an immediate halt! The 12 Z midday afternoon runs have moved back to a more southern solution with a track keeping most of the moisture from this coming storm offshore! Great news for those weary from the snow. Now it appears that our greatest risk is for some increasing clouds on Monday with the chance of a few flurries or scattered snow showers. The heavy wet slushy snow will be reserved for the mid-Atlantic states like PA, VA, MD from the primary low moving into the Ohio Valley. As the secondary low develops off the southern New Jersey coast, it will wrap in colder air and make for a few heavy bands of snow which should move through DC and Baltimore...well south of us! Could it be we finally miss a storm? It just doesn't seem possible...but this time we may be in luck. Many solutions are showing a weaker primary low, further south...and a strong little coastal storm far enough off the coast to spare us anything but fringe effects.
It is important to note that it will only take a slight jog to the north for this storm to provide some accumulating snow to SNE. It really is that close at this point! Granted, the snow will have to come down hard to accumulate. At this point, if it were to snow...the precip looks too light for much to get going with more of a wet mix. If this track jogs again north, The area most likely to get any accumulation would be south of the Pike. I still expect just fringe effects from this storm with cloudy cool, damp raw, breezy conditions as this storm tracks just south of us. But at this point, it may be wise to keep our options open just in case there are any more shifts in track.
As the storm ramps up off the coast, some gusty NE winds may settle in late Monday-Monday Night at the coast. The rest of the week will feature dry NW winds with building high pressure. with still just enough of a trough across the Northeast to keep a cyclonic flow aloft which will promote building cumulus clouds during the day with the cool air aloft. Temps will begin to moderate nearing 50 by the middle to end of this week. This is a sign of things to come. Our coldest days are well behind us, and we just might get through the rest of this winter unscathed. Somehow, I doubt it though. Already we are seeing signs of storm development somewhere around April 1st. How appropriate. Models are all over the places as usual...but it is still an active pattern. It is hard to shake the feeling that this winter will go down to the bitter end. But by this point...our best chance of accumulating snow would have to come heavy and come at night if it has a chance to stick. More limiting factors.
The Arctic Oscillation has bottomed out and is on the rise plus the NAO remains slightly negative. These two will help to keep the cool trough in place through early april, but then once the pattern shifts...and it will...it will be suddenly summer and all of this winter talk will be a long distant memory. Definitely light at the end of the tunnel...and it keeps getting brighter!
