Is this destined to be another dud winter for snow in Massachusetts?
BOSTON - The weather across Massachusetts still looks quiet for New Year's Day with no major storms, snow or cold in sight.
Is it me or is it starting to feel a lot like spring around here? These gray, rainy days remind me more of March or April than January. For Boston, this was the third warmest December on record.
Perhaps even more dramatic has been the lack of snow and snow cover to this point. I cannot remember the last time the snow cover map looked like this so late in the year.
This is NOT a mistake, there is literally NO snowpack anywhere in New England outside of the highest mountain peaks and ski areas (where the snow is largely man-made).
Boston has had only 0.2" of snow this season, good for fourth least on record through the end of the December. That is about 8 inches below the average to date for Boston. Worcester is running more than a foot of snow below the average.
Taking a wider view, just about all of the major climate cities in New England are going to finish December 2023 in the top 10 least snowy winters thus far.
Assuming we don't get any surprise snow in the next few days here is a sample of where some of the cities will rank
Least Snowy To Date (as of Dec 31)
- Boston 7th 0.2"
- Providence 1st trace
- Hartford 1st trace
- Worcester 10th 3.0"
- Concord, NH 10th 4.1"
- Portland, ME 2nd 0.7"
- Caribou, ME 5th 18.0"
This begs the question, and believe me, I have heard it more than a few times this week, is this destined to be another dud winter for snow?
Well, if you simply take the 10 least snowy winters through December 31 and look at how they finished the snow season, there is NO disputing the obvious conclusion. Check out these numbers.
Ten Least Snowy Winters Through Dec 31 and their final seasonal snow totals (Boston average is 48.7")
- 1999 24.4"
- 1973 36.9"
- 1953 23.6"
- 1891 46.8"
- 1957: 44.7"
- 1989: 39.2"
- 2023: ?
- 2018: 27.4"
- 1941: 23.9"
- 1943: 27.7"
They ALL finished with below average seasonal snowfall.
But you could also look at this another way - none of them were complete duds either. They all had between 23 inches and 47 inches - about 2-to-4 feet of snow!
So, are you a glass half empty or half full person?
Actually, this IS basically our WBZ-TV winter forecast. We predicted a warm and slow start to winter in December followed by things "kicking into gear" around and after Martin Luther King, Jr. day in January, with snow totals a bit less than average in the end. So far, so good.
At this point, there is no reason to change that outlook. There are still reasons to believe that January and February will deliver some appreciable snow and cold. This would follow the typical El Nino playbook as well.
So, we wait. I will leave all you snow lovers with a reason for optimism.
Just two years ago, we finished December 2021 with just 0.4" of total snowfall. That was followed up by the fourth snowiest January on record (36.2") and more than a foot in February (15.3") which helped to bring our final season snow total to 54 inches, which was 5.3" ABOVE AVERAGE!
If I have learned anything forecasting New England winters for nearly three decades, it is to NEVER count them out. It is truly a marathon, not a sprint, and Heartbreak Hill could be just around the corner.
