Weekend Storm Appearing More Likely
Many folks woke up to a fresh 1-3" snowfall this morning in western and central MA this morning, this is just part one of a two part-weekend snow event. The snow band will continue to move east and weaken Saturday and for most of the midday and afternoon there wont be much going on in Southern New England. Most roads and pavements will remain wet so traveling will not be an issue today. These morning bands of snow are part of an Arctic front which is breaking down the unseasonal warmth from Friday. Once this front pushes off the coast, we will wait for round #2 to come up the coast. How far this front pushes off shore could help to determine the how close this next storm will track to New England.
This evening, a significant ocean storm will start to form off of the Mid Atlantic, and later tonight snow will start to redevelop across southeastern MA. Unfortunately, The ultimate track of this ocean storm still remains a bit of a mystery...a shift of 50 miles in one direction will mean the difference between several inches and a more significant snow storm or very little. As of now, we continue to play it down the middle...but the trend is leaning towards the stormier solution.
It looks like the steady snow from part 2 will start just before midnight. It will last through Sunday morning and begin to taper off Sunday afternoon, the last to see the snow end would be the coast which could see snow last through late afternoon.
From looking at the satellite this morning and our morning/midday runs, I would have to lean closer towards the heavier amounts....and these amounts may still be underdone. Our Euro model has come in more robust and closer to the coast. The GFS remains still has the stormiest scenario with 6-8" Boston and closer 12" in SE MA to the Cape. So we could very well be looking at a much heavier snowfall across Eastern MA with heavier amounts exceeding 8" as you head into Plymouth, Bristol and Banstable County and onto the Cape. The trend is concerning and IMO starting to look a bit more likely.
It should pretty stormy for a while on Sunday morning into the afternoon. In fact there is the potential for near blizzard conditions at the coast with all the blowing and heavy snow...winds along the Coast will be Gusty all a day as this storm bombs out heading into the maritimes later Sunday. Winds could gust up to 40-60 on the Cape. Widespread gusts over 40 are possible across most of eastern MA.
In the next 24 hours will continue to fill you in on any updates...just a small change in storm track will shift the expected snow amounts higher or lower by several inches. It is still a tough call the over all track this will eventually take....but it is certainly looking more ominous at here at 11:30 AM Saturday. The GFS has been so consistent. The cold front is stalling. The models taking this far out to seas seem out to lunch.
One thing is certain, this storm will push into the Maritimes and become a much stronger storm. It will continue to wrap in strong NW winds and usher in a shot of Arctic air which will drop temps into the 20's on Sunday with wind chills in the single digits and teens. Breezy NW winds will continue Monday with building high pressure. Sunshine with highs rebounding back into the Lwr 30's
On Tuesday an approaching cold front will give us a chance of a few rain showers and temps will warm into the lwr 40's with SW winds ahead of the front. Best chance of showers will come lat Tuesday and Tuesday night, even a few snow showers will fall across the north. Cooler dry air will follow in behind the front for the middle to end of the week. We will be tracking a low riding south of New England later Friday through the Mid-Atlantic states d which could clip SNE with some snowfall heading into next weekend.
