Scattered PM Storms Usher In the Dry Air
The early morning rain may have had you down for a bit, but the sunshine has returned in full and temps are responding to the sunshine and light NW winds. Highs will be climbing to near 80-85 for most locations this afternoon...quite a bit different than the mid 90's! Temps will remain in the 70's at the beaches, where there are a few lingering clouds.
One area of low pressure has pulled off the coast early this morning with drier air filling in on the back side of it's departure. Dewpoints are still in the mid 60's at the coast, so a warm muggy feel to the day with the sunshine will have many of us again looking for the pools and beaches.
A potent shortwave will be pushing through New England this afternoon along with a cold front currently sitting over upstate NY. This will provide the needed lift to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. There is sufficient instability that a few of these thunderstorms may become strong or even severe. The best timing for these storms to form will be between 2 -6 PM. The best chance of any severe storms will be in S NH, Merrimack Valley, Worcester county...some of these storms will try to hold together as they approach the coast between 4-7 PM. Storms will contain briefly heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds along with frequent lightning.
Once the front is off the coast, I expect skies to be rapidly clearing tonight with dewpoints and humidity levels falling during the overnight hours. A much more comfortable night for sleeping. High pressure will follow in for Sunday with bright sunshine and high temps ranging from 80-85. Comfortably warm with dewpoints in the 50's. High clouds will increase late ahead of our next front. A vigorous cold front will approach Monday with periodic showers and embedded thunderstorms. It looks like this could be an all day event with rain starting during the morning and continuing until sunset Monday. Rain cooled air will drop temps down into the Lwr 70's. A nice cool beneficial rain...After a great weekend...a rainy Monday can make getting back to work a little bitter sweet. About .50-1" of rain may fall from this frontal passage.
An upper low from Hudson bay will swing right into a trough shifting into the northeast. This will provide cool air aloft for instability and a seasonably cool airmass thru the midweek. The Euro model lifts the trough out a little sooner, making for drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. The GFS has the trough/upper low holding onto New England a bit longer. Either way, this is the kind of pattern which will feature morning sun, with building PM clouds and a risk of a pop up afternoon shower or thunderstorm pretty much every day this week. Once the trough lifts by Friday, upper level ridging will be developing with warmer air arriving heading into next weekend.
The tropics are getting active this weekend. The National Hurricane Center has a 90% chance that a low will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. This will likely become Tropical storm and maybe even Hurricane Debby depending on it's over all path which is still up in the air. The Euro & GFS are polar opposites with Debby's eventual track. The GFS has the storm getting caught by the trough on the east coast and steered into Florida and then out into the Atlantic. The Euro has the trough lifting out, leaving the storm behind to intensify and tracking westward towards the Texas coastline. Very much up in the air at this point...but would lean towards the western track.
As always, plenty of weather to watch...but at least the real high heat from the heat wave is gone...as fun as it was for some of us...that kind of weather can be tough to take. Enjoy the weekend!
