Saying Goodbye to Summer This Labor Day Weekend
Is this it? Really? There has to be more summer weather..right? Well Unfortunately, I can say with a straight face that I do not see any more warmth in the pattern through September 20th at least. Sure there will be plenty of nice days to enjoy...but will there be any more beach days like this in the mid-upper 80's? I don't think so. So this labor Day weekend...if you find yourself complaining about the heat and humidity...please just for one day...give it a rest. For these kind of days are not for long this world...so get outside and make the best of this summer weather as this brief window lasts!
Morning stratus and low level fog is making for a hazy morning across the region...with more clouds west and southeast. Any Morning clouds will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. SW winds with warm air aloft, along with hazy sun will allow temps to climb to the mid-upper 80's inland, mid 80's coast with 70's on the Cape.
An upper level trough is digging into the Great lakes with a slow moving cold front which will stay west of New England today. There is a chance a few of these showers or storms may break off out ahead of this front as a pre-frontal trough, but this line of scattered storms will likely remain far enough N & West that much of New England will remain dry, warm and humid. A great day for the pool and beaches.
Overnight clouds will beging to gather with patchy fog and muggy conditions. Even on Labor day the cold front will still lie west of New England...so much of the daylight hours will remain dry in Eastern MA. The Upper flow is from SSW to NNE...so it will be a very slow progression of the showers/storms eastward. Most of the activity will be confined to the NW in the afternoon, with increasing cloudiness/ some hazy sun for most of us with cooler highs in the Lwr 80's
More widespread rainfall is likely Monday night into Tuesday as the remnants from Tropical Storm Lee will be directed up the east coast thanks to SW winds aloft up this slow moving front as it crosses the region Tuesday. This will mean periodic heavy downpours in this tropical airmass with the potential for 1-2+" as the rain winds down Tuesday.
As the front pushes off the coast it will become a stationary front which means more of the remnants of Lee will be able to ride along and provide the risk for more showers for the south coast through Wednesday. With a front stalled off the south coast, winds out of the east and watertemps in the Lwr-mid 60's, along with abundant cloud cover near the proximity of the front...temps will only be in the 60's and lwr 70's. Temps will have a tough time recovering in this onshore wind through the mid week.
Some drier weather with increasing sun and warmer temps should arrive by Friday-Saturday in the 70's. There is plenty of uncertaintly in the long range forecast because of the development of now Hurricane Katia with 75 mph winds. Moving to the NW at 12 mph...it will continue on this path over open waters for the next several days and gain strength and intensity. It will become a Category 2 or even a low end Cat 3 as it will approach the outer backs of NC by Friday. The placement of where this storm is not favorable for this to become a land falling hurricane on the US coast. An upper level trough will likely be pushing this storm back out to sea and away from the US coast after it tracks west of Bermuda and possibly makes a close approach to the outer banks...it may even graze Nantucket, if there is any more trending further west. Some of these models may be too quick to just kick this storm out of here right now...so I would like to see a few more model runs & updates from the NHC before completely writing Katia off. I have a feeling she may have a few tricks up her sleeve. She will definitely bring some rough surf with her...which I know all the surfers love to hear.
Once this trough moves in...it will become a broadscale trough which will very likely last the rest of September. So just as August struggled to warm up...so will September with a trough in the east suppressing any ridging, heat or humidity. Looks like some pretty nice September weather if you ask me! Hate to see summer go. Thank God for Football!
