Robb: Can The Celtics Sustain Their Hot Start On Offense?
BOSTON (CBS)-- Most fans expected the Boston Celtics offense to be a bit better in year two of the Brad Stevens era.
The prospect of offensive growth appeared promising in training camp, with the return of a healthy Rajon Rondo, the growth of youngsters like Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk, as well as the addition of scoring weapons in Evan Turner and Marcus Thornton.
While noting that the Celtics finished 27th in offensive rating (a formula that measures a team's scoring efficiency by factoring in pace of play) last season, a modest jump for the Celtics to a middle-of-the-road scoring team would have satisfied the hopes of the fan base from an offensive standpoint. No big names like Kevin Love were added to the mix, so a major improvement appeared to be a reach, for this season anyway.
Through 10 games this season, Stevens' new-look offense has blown those modest expectations out of the water. To date, the Celtics are averaging 106.8 points per game, the highest mark in the Eastern Conference. That mark has shot up the Celtics in the league's overall offensive rating to seventh this year, despite facing formidable defenses like the Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls in the month of November.
With more than 10 percent of the season in the books, many fans are wondering whether the Celtics can keep up this kind of offensive output for the entire season? I took a look at some of the early season numbers to find out whether the hot start was sustainable or just a flash in the pan.
THE POSITIVE SIGNS
Consistency. The Celtics have scored over 100 points in eight of their 10 games this season. That kind of output is a good sign in the sense that the Celtics already have a track record of showing up offensively every night. The same can also be said for the players throughout the team's rotation. All five starters are averaging at least 10 points per game, while all five players that see regular minutes off the bench are averaging six-plus points per contest. Production like that has made the Celtics very tough to defend, since they have different players stepping up every night on the offensive end. That trend should continue moving forward.
Pace. Fast offense creates easy opportunities and the Celtics are taking Brad Stevens' instructions to push the ball to heart thus far, since it's lead to plenty of easy scores in transition. The team ranks third in the NBA in pace of play, averaging 97.5 possessions per game. That fast paced mentality plus some outstanding offensive rebounding from Sullinger, among others, has helped Boston average more field goal attempts (87.3) per game than any other team. It's easy to score when you have countless opportunities and that's exactly what this offense has been doing right now.
THE WORRISOME SIGNS
Boston's perimeter shooting remains suspect. The Celtics were firing up the 3-point shot at a historic rate in the preseason and that has slowed down a bit in the regular season, for good reason. Boston currently ranks 28th overall in the NBA in 3-point shooting accuracy, hitting a paltry 30.5 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc. In order to sustain a good offense, solid 3-point shooting is generally a must, so the Celtics need to boost up their averages in this department.
Boston's inability to get to the free throw line could become an issue. Boston has feasted on scoring points in the paint this year, but a lack of shot creators on the roster has limited their trips to the charity stripe all season long. The team ranks almost dead last in free throw attempts per game. The inability to draw fouls may continue to hurt the Celtics late in games, once defenses tighten up and slow the green down in transition. Easy points often come in waves at the free throw line and the Celtics need to find a way to get there more regularly.
BOTTOM LINE
The pros outweigh the cons throughout the first few weeks of the season for the Celtics offense. Boston should get better with their outside shooting, while their positives traits on offense (pace, consistency) have shown no signs of slowing down. A top-10 offense is attainable for this team, and with it perhaps, a shot at a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.
Brian Robb covers the Celtics for CBS Boston and contributes to NBA.com, among other media outlets. You can follow him on Twitter @CelticsHub.
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