Red Sox expectations: Let's get "greedy" for the rest of 2024
BOSTON -- OK, Boston Red Sox. Apologies all around for having little faith in you the last three-plus months. It won't happen for the next three months.
While the majority of people around baseball expected the Red Sox to finish in the basement of the AL East once again, Alex Cora's club has had other plans for 2024. They have navigated some treacherous injury waters and surprised the baseball world with a 53-42 record in the first half. Boston is not just in the playoff picture by occupying the third AL Wild Card spot, but the Sox sit a shocking 4.5 games back of first place in the division.
Rafael Devers is putting together a career year. Jarren Duran was on fire before the break and will have loads of confidence after winning All-Star Game MVP. Ceddanne Rafaela continues to get better every day. Tanner Houck looks like an ace, and closer Kenley Jansen continues to add to his Hall of Fame resume.
All of that (and much more) has the Red Sox right back in the postseason mix. Baseball Reference is giving Boston a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs, while other sites have them at 50-50 to play October baseball. Given their strong first half and the attitude (and momentum) they possess heading into the second half of the season, just making it to the playoffs doesn't feel like enough for this team.
Cora said he wants to "get greedy" and aim for more than the third Wild Card, so we're here to follow the skipper's lead. Here are some slightly greedy -- but also reasonable -- expectations for the Boston baseball team the rest of the way.
The Red Sox should add a pitcher at the deadline
And we're not talking about bare minimum kind of moves. Let's see some real moves by Craig Breslow at his first trade deadline.
The Red Sox were in a pretty good spot at this time in each of the last two seasons, but then completely collapsed over the final months of the season. Chaim Bloom's inactivity -- or in the case of two years ago, his trying to play both sides -- at the deadline sent the wrong message to the team and they mailed it in the rest of the way.
That shouldn't happen this season. Not only does this team feel different, but they've proven that they're worth investing in right now. They've earned the support of ownership and the front office, and those two sides apparently agree.
Breslow has reportedly picked a lane and will be taking the "buyers" highway to the trade deadline. He sees that these Red Sox can continue to make noise, but that they also need help if they're going to make a real push for -- and in -- the playoffs.
Houck and Kutter Crawford have been excellent at the front of the rotation, but adding another starter would take an incredible amount of pressure off their shoulders. Houck has already set a new career mark for innings pitched, and Crawford will get there in a few weeks. Adding another arm to the rotation will go a long way in preserving their shoulders for the rest of the season, and could potentially help Brayan Bello get on track.
If the Rangers fall out of contention and make Nathan Eovaldi available, the Red Sox need to call and not hang up until a deal is done (within reason, of course). He would be the perfect deadline addition, a guy that we know can pitch in Boston with a pair of rings that show that he can pitch in the postseason. But even just adding another starter for the middle or backend of the rotation would be big for Boston, with Tampa's Zach Eflin, Oakland's JP Sears, and Detroit's Jack Flaherty potential options.
Outside of Houck and Crawford, no Sox starter has a sub-4.00 ERA. And not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but adding an arm to the rotation could let Cora send Nick Pivetta to the bullpen for the postseason, where he could potentially thrive in the rover position -- ala Eovaldi back in 2018.
Boston has the farm system to land just about anyone they want via trade this summer. But they shouldn't have to deal away top prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel to add some help to the rotation. (Yes, we are being extremely greedy here.)
And while Breslow is at it, he should look for another arm to solidify the bullpen given Chris Martin and Justin Slaten sidelined with injuries. Tthe rotation should be the priority, but you can never be too greedy when it comes to adding arms for a playoff run.
The Red Sox should add a bat at the deadline, too
This isn't being greedy either -- Boston needs a bat with some more pop in the lineup, especially one that can hit left-handed pitching. The Red Sox are very lefty-heavy in the lineup, and they've struggled against southpaws all season. The only time the team has really had any hiccups as of late is when they've faced a lefty.
One intriguing option is a reunion with Justin Turner, who wanted to return to Boston in the offseason but never received an offer from the team. He instead signed with the Blue Jays, who are spiraling this season and will be looking to offload talent. Turner is hitting just .231 for the year, but he's slashing .295/.353/.459 with an .812 OPS against lefties. He's also got postseason experience -- and a ring -- from his time with the Dodgers.
Angels infielder Luis Rengifo is another potential target for Boston, and he can play all over the infield with experience at second, third, and short. He's also slashing .380/.415/.540 with a .955 OPS in his 50 at-bats against lefties this season. The 27-year-old is a career .279 hitter against left-handers, to a .243 career hitter against righties. The Red Sox probably like that Rengifo would be under team control until 2025, too.
Oakland DH/outfielder Brent Rooker has been mentioned as a possible target, but the Sox have no room in the outfield and Rooker is hitting just .258 against lefties this season. But his 21 homers at the break would be a nice addition to the lineup if the Sox can find room for him.
The good news is that it doesn't sound like Breslow is going to consider the injury return of Triston Casas as a deadline acquisition. And making moves at the deadline won't just help the club in the present, but it could be Boston's best pitch to retain Cora at the end of the season.
How many wins will the Red Sox end up with this season?
The outlook did not look promising for the Red Sox just one month ago. They were playing better baseball but sat at 35-35 on June 14 and trailed the first-place Yankees by 14 games. They were three games back of the final AL Wild Card.
But the Red Sox started this surge in late May and it hasn't slowed. Boston has gone an MLB-best 31-18 since May 19, and has won 12 of its last 13 series. The Red Sox won five of their last seven games and 10 of their last 13 ahead of the All-Star break.
It won't be easy to keep up that pace, especially with a difficult schedule in the second half. (Fangraphs has it as the most difficult in baseball.) The Red Sox start with three against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, and after what should be an easy field trip to Colorado for three against the lowly Rockies, they return home for three-game sets against the Yankees and the Mariners.
That stretch will take the team to the trade deadline, and the tests will keep coming from there. Boston has a three-game series in Kansas City against the Royals and a home and an away series against the Astros. They have seven games against the Orioles (who are 5-1 against Boston this season), including three at Fenway in early September. That series is followed by a big four-game series in New York against the Yankees. The Minnesota Twins (currently half-a-game up on Boston for the second Wild Card) also come to Fenway Park for three games from Sept. 20-22.
That's not an easy road ahead, but there are some gimmies in there too. The Sox will play seven games against the Blue Jays. They get to see the basement-dwelling White Sox for three games at Fenway Park in early September. And if the Yankees' season continues to go down the drain, maybe we can throw them in this category too.
Some projections are putting the Red Sox around 86 wins for the season, predicting they'll be a .500 team the rest of the way. We can get a lot greedier than that in Boston.
Can the Red Sox realistically win 60 percent of their remaining games and go 40-27? It won't be easy with that schedule, but if the team keeps playing the way it did before the break and Breslow makes the right additions at the deadline, it's certainly possible.
That should be enough for a playoff spot in the end. But at the very least we'll be treated to meaningful baseball through September, which we haven't seen in Boston since 2021.
The Red Sox should not only make the playoffs -- but win a round
A Wild Card team beat a Wild Card team in the World Series last year. That my be dreaming a bit too big, but the Red Sox have the athleticism and the speed to make some real noise in the postseason.
If the playoffs started today, the 6-seeded Red Sox would square off with the 3-seeded Mariners in the Wild Card round. Cora wants to shoot much higher than the 6-seed though, hence his "greedy" comment.
If Boston takes care of business in their games against the Twins and their two series against the Yankees the rest of the way (they've won four of six from their AL East rivals thus far), the Red Sox could pass at least one of them in the Wild Card standings and potentially both. An AL East crown may be asking for a lot, but Boston is within striking distance of Baltimore.
If the Red Sox make the playoffs, they'll likely find themselves as underdogs against whichever foe they match up with. But they're a team that loves to be doubted and given a chance to prove everyone wrong.
Making the playoffs was not the expectation when the season began. But now that we've seen what this team is capable of, it's time to get greedy and expect a series win in the postseason.
A return to October baseball will absolutely be welcomed and applauded. But now the Red Sox and their fans want much, much more in 2024.
