The real shame of Patriots' dismal season? AFC is wide open

BOSTON -- Did you stay up late to catch the end of the Broncos-Bills game on Monday night? If you did, then you witnessed an inexplicable mistake that cost the Bills the game, dropping Buffalo to a mediocre 5-5 on the season.

In years past, such a moment would be cause for celebration in New England, where the Patriots would normally be mapping out their path to a first-round bye en route to playing for a Super Bowl.

This year, though, as everybody knows, that's not happening. The Patriots traveled halfway around the world just to score six points in a loss to a rookie head coach and a backup quarterback with a 10-19 record as a starter. New rock bottoms are written every week, from the 38-3 drubbing in Dallas, to the 34-0 embarrassment to the Saints a week later, to losing to Josh McDaniels just weeks before his firing, to losing consecutive games to middling teams like the Commanders and Colts, Bill Belichick's team has spent the bulk of the year rewriting what is possible for a team that appeared in four out of five Super Bowls not too long ago.

As a result, New England fans are looking ahead to the draft, and they're hyper-focused on the draft order. Many will be rooting for as many losses as possible between now and Jan. 7, as the short-term pain of losing to some sub-mediocre teams could produce a franchise-altering draft pick. It's uncharted territory, sure, but people seem to be adapting rather quickly.

Yet when zooming out the focus from the Patriots, there is the larger picture of the American Football Conference. And that's where the real shame of the Patriots having a non-competitive season can be found.

With Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, and to a lesser extent Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, the AFC began this season loaded with quarterback talent. Even if everything worked out perfectly for the Patriots, they didn't look capable of competing for a conference championship, given that level of quarterback talent.

The thing is, despite all of those elite quarterbacks, a true alpha team has yet to emerge in the conference. It remains anyone's guess which team will actually be able to put together three or four consecutive weeks of strong play in order to get to and/or win a Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are atop the conference at 7-2, but this is a far cry from the Chiefs teams we've come to know over the past six years. The Chiefs rank eighth in yards and 13th in scoring this season, topping 30 points in a game just twice thus far. Their defense has been the strength, ranking fourth in yards allowed and second in points allowed. Even still, the team has lost twice at home -- to the Lions in Week 1, to the Broncos in Week 8. They may still represent the class of the AFC, but they hardly carry the air of invincibility that they've had since Mahomes ascended to perennial MVP status.

The Ravens are the only other seven-win team in the conference, and they've looked like a juggernaut at times, beating the Lions 38-6 and whooping the Seahawks 37-3. But they also just blew a large lead to the Browns, losing at home 33-31 after leading 24-9 in the third quarter and 31-17 in the fourth quarter. With a home overtime loss to the Colts and a loss in Pittsburgh on their record, complete consistency isn't fully there for Baltimore this season. The Ravens seem to be in line for a big playoff win or two, but they could just as easily have a bad week in January, ending the entire campaign.

Mike McDaniel's Dolphins would probably slot in next on the power rankings in the conference, owing to their 6-3 record. But that record is massively inflated by beating bad teams; the Dolphins' .263 strength of victory almost looks like it has to be a typo. Yet it's not, as beating the Chargers, Patriots (twice), Broncos, Giants, and Panthers will give you that number. When facing good teams -- the Bills, the Eagles, the Chiefs -- the Dolphins have lost ... and by a large margin. They lost by 28 points in Buffalo, by 14 points in Philadelphia, and by a touchdown in Kansas City. As it stands right now, anyone in the football world looking to throw around the "fraud" word may feel free to do so, until or if the Dolphins prove they can beat good teams.

After that? Have at it. The Jaguars, Steelers, Browns and Texans make up the rest of the AFC teams occupying playoff spots. The Bengals and Bills are currently on the outside of the playoff picture. The Chargers, Titans and Broncos are all sub-.500.

From a New England perpective, it feels somewhat reminsicent of the 2011 season. That year, the Patriots had an explosive offense but a horrible defense. Despite the 13-3 record, that Patriots team would surely rank as the worst of any of New England's nine Super Bowl squads in the Belichick era. Still -- obviously -- that team made the Super Bowl, emerging from an AFC where nobody was all that good. And they still came within one drive of winning the whole thing, because the NFC-champion Giants weren't all that good, either.

This year feels like a similar scenario. And yet, one of those AFC teams will win the conference and play for a championship in the Super Bowl. We don't know which team it will be, because of the inconsistency and unpredictability across the board. It could be one of those mid-tier teams that nobody expected to be in the mix at all.

But we do know one thing: It won't be the Patriots. 

The reasons for that are numerous. Ignoring the importance of the wide receiver position may be the main driver, though a crumbling offensive line, a sharply regressing third-year quarterback, a residual effect from a catastrophic coaching staff decision a year ago, injuries to the two best defensive players, numerous poor draft decisions and some free-agent misfires could and should all make the list. Climbing out of this hole won't be easy, and as the free-agent spree of 2021 showed, money alone can't elevate a team to the top of the league.

That part of it, though, will have to get sorted out in the upcoming offseason. For now, the Patriots are set to trudge through their final seven games after the bye with no clear direction or intent. Some fans will be dreaming of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye while potentially watching Will Grier face Tommy DeVito in a real, live NFL football game.

It's all a shame, really. But the fact that AFC will eventually be won by a flawed, beatable team should make this season feel like even more of a lost opportunity in New England.

You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.