'Rapid-Fire' Pattern Continues
If it isn't an 'Alberta Clipper' heading our way, it's a moisture-laden 'Panhandle Hook' on its way from the South. Today will be the latter half of a 2-day reprieve from any precipitation. The sunshine and temperatures in the lower 30s will allow for some snow melt, which we are hoping happens in a very slow fashion at this point.
Watch Melissa's forecast:
Saturday's Storm: We are about 24 hours out from the coastal storm taking shape in the Deep South, and models are still not in complete agreement with its future track. The NAM and EURO show a decent amount of warm air advection allowing any initial snow to transition to rain by Saturday afternoon and early evening. They both show the rain switching back to snow Saturday night for a quick burst of snow with a potent 500mb vort. On the other hand, the GFS depicts a more easterly track which would provide colder air and would support more snow. However, this track would also lessen the amount of moisture that would reach the northwest suburbs lessening overall snowfall totals. I am sticking with the NAM since it's typically the most accurate for near-term forecasting.
The precipitation should begin by midday and last thru early AM Sunday. The onset will mainly be snow before the rain/snow line pushes northward towards the North Shore/Boston/Worcester (maybe even a little farther north) during the afternoon and early evening. Some of these areas may received rain/sleet/frz. rain/snow in a short period of time. Northern Middlesex/Worcester counties along with southern NH should maintain snow status for this event. Overall, snowfall totals will range between 3-6" for areas north (isolated 7-8" pockets possible)...1-3" from the North Shore/Boston/Worcester...little to no accum near the Cape Cod Canal to the Cape and the Islands.
Monday's Outlook: This looks rather minor compared to the majority of storms we have endured thus far this winter. This appears to be a fast-mover from Monday afternoon thru Tuesday morning. The Alberta Clipper tries to link up with some energy driving northward along the coast, but it doesn't manage to do so until it is off the Coast and north of Southern New England. So, the current track doesn't look ominous. It looks like a light snow interior along with a light mix/rain for SE Massachusetts. Of course, this track has plenty of time to change. If the Clipper collaborates with the coastal energy nearby, this could turn out to be something more. We're watching!
Next Thursday: It's looking interesting. Models are showing another large coastal storm. The GFSx shows a major snowstorm while the EURO takes a westerly track providing a plethora of precipitation. We shall see...
Have a great weekend!
Melissa :)
