Rapid Fire
A tough pattern is taking shape. Consequently, it'll be tricky to provide the exact timing of the multiple chance of showers throughout the weekend.
The precipitation chances through Friday are starting to come to a concensus. The EURO and GFSx show a dry but mainly cloudy day on Wednesday followed by another dry but a brighter day for Thursday. Friday shows a chance of scat'd showers, mainly through midday. Then, there is the part where we need to forecast the high temperatures. This is another very tricky part of the forecast since wind direction is crucial during this time of the year when water temperatures are still cool. The NAM is now reaching out towards the tail end of the week hinting at a warming trend from Thursday into Friday. Highs should hover in the 60s on Thursday and possibly as warm as the lower to middle 70s+ on Friday, depending on where a frontal boundary sets up shop. If the front pushes northward and we end up in the warm sector, a few showers may accompany the warm front/stationary front during the day on Friday. The EURO is the only model that is not sold on the warm solution on Friday.
The first weekend of May has a chance of being rather unsettled if the GFSx solution verifies but quieter if the EURO solution comes to fruition. The GFSx has a chance of showers all weekend starting on Friday...then again a spot shower late-day Saturday...and the chance of a few showers would linger into early next week with an upper level low/trough affecting us. The EURO, which has proven to be more accurate for long-term forecasting so far this season, shows a chance of showers during the middle part of the day on Friday followed by a drier solution this weekend. Then, the EURO shows rain moving in late-day Monday through early Tuesday. The different solutions have to do with a different upper level set-up. The EURO is depicting an upper level ridging late this weekend, while the GFSx is dropping an upper level low and trough into the region. The EURO solution would bring about cooler high temps on Saturday with midler air returning Sunday and Monday. The GFSx is showing highs around the upper 60s on Saturday with cooler temps near 60F on Sunday. As you can see, we will have a lot of fine-tuning and tweaking to contend with throughout the extended forecast. This is a taxing Accuweather 7-Day forecast.
Stay Dry!
~Melissa
