Quiet Weekend...Sloppy Mix for Tuesday
Morning Lows
- -12 Orange
- -14 Springfield
- -4 Bedford
- -2 Norwood
- -10 N. Adams
- -11 Keene
- -8 Concord, NH
The coldest air we have seen since last January is in place this morning. High pressure is providing plentiful sunshine with high clouds streaming eastward in advance of a weak upper level disturbance which will provide light snow & snow showers to the region tonight. High temps will rebound into the mid 20's for most by this afternoon...with the Cape & Islands able to climb into the lwr 30's with a light SW wind.
A weak clipper from the Great Lakes will introduce light snow into western New England by late afternoon and overspread the rest if the region for the evening hours. Any available moisture will be squeezed out by the cold air in the form of light snow and scattered snow showers...which will mostly be winding down by midnight. A coating to an 1" of snow is possible where the snow comes down a bit heavier. The best chance of any accumulation exceeding an inch...to possibly 2-3" would be in the mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire. Flakes will struggle to hold together over the Worcester Hills...but I do expect a brief burst of snow into Boston shortly after 9 PM...and then off the coast....lingering snow is possible in southeast MA a little bit later into the evening.
The sunshine will return Sunday in full with temps still mostly holding in the 20's and Lwr 30's. An Arctic front will slide through Sunday night. High pressure form the Ohio Valley will provide a reinforcing shot of much colder air Monday where highs will only be around 18-25 degrees. Though it does cool down, the heart of the cold stays in Canada. A trough with SW wind aloft will establish itself along the east coast and warmer air will begin to stream Northeastward for Tuesday. There will be plenty of stubborn cold air in place which will be slow to retreat. This will set the table for our next storm.
A low from the Great Lakes and a Low from the Gulf up the East coast will be the main players for this Tuesday event. This promises to be pretty sloppy...but the overall thermal profile still is a bit up in the air depending upon track and intensity. It appears the northern and southern streams do not merge, with the subtropical jet being the main player providing ample moisture up the east coast with a low which will track close to New England....but the exact is still up for grabs. QPF amounts are showing .50-2" of moisture falling from this system. Very juicy considering all that is at stake. Most importantly it will bring warmth which will allow for a changeover from Snow to rain. The concern is where the cold may hold on a bit longer at the ground...where there could be ice!
It looks like snow all snow Tuesday morning with the potential for a few quick inches at the start. Snow will start to change to rain with ESE winds warming the boundary layer. Minor accumulations as we will likely see the snow rain line push up to Boston and Cape Ann by midday with a change to rain at the coast. The combination of rain and the recent heavy snow will mean additional weight to rooftops and the potential for street flooding in areas with blocked storm drains.
Outside of 495...Mainly from Worcester westward...the cold will hold on long enough for the potential for 3-6" of snow...before a change over to sleet and freezing rain starts by the afternoon...and eventually a complete change over to rain for southern New England. The Farther north you go, away from the coast...the more significant the wintry mix of snow and Ice will be.. This is very complex and pure speculation this far out. We will have to keep a close eye on the thermal profiles of many communities as we approach the event. Cold air damming will be a problem with this storm ..especially in the Pioneer Valley, Berkshires, Blackstone Valleys.
The timing of how quickly this gets out of here is in question as well with the GFS showing lingering showers into Wednesday. I am leaning towards a faster solution with skies becoming partly sunny Wednesday. We start out Wednesday near 40...but look for cooler air to follow in to end the week.
More energy and mositure could be coming out of the Gulf and up the east coast by the end of the week. Another coastal storm? Quite possibly. Friday will be cold enough for mostly snow. Hard to say with any confidence how strong that will be...but it is another storm we will have to watch closely this week. This could all start to add up to bigger problems if these storms all pan out. Brutally cold air will follow in behind this storm for next weekend. 850 temps are down to -20. This could be as cold as we get all winter as highs next weekend will likely not get out of the teens. Subzero mornings are likely....Colder than this morning's lows.
