What To Watch For As Patriots Host Jets With First Place On The Line
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- An underrated storyline this week has been the fact that the winner of Sunday afternoon's game at Gillette Stadium will be in first place in the AFC East.
Naturally, that means that despite the great start to the season, there's a chance the Patriots enter Week 8 looking up at the Jets in the standings.
Now, it would be quite the feat for the Jets to upset the Patriots, but these two teams typically play each other quite tight. Even last year, when the Patriots were on their way to winning a Super Bowl and the Jets were in the midst of a four-win season, the Patriots only eked out a two-point win at home and a one-point victory in New Jersey.
This time around, the Jets are an improved team, and just like any game in the NFL, anything can happen. And if the Patriots want to emerge with their undefeated record intact and their first-place standing in place, they'll need to be a bit sharper than they were last week in Indianapolis.
Here's what to look for when the Patriots and Jets take the field Sunday at Gillette.
The Turnover Battle
Nothing is more important to Bill Belichick-coached football teams than protecting the football. That message has no doubt been driven home all week at practice, because the Jets have thrived on stealing the ball from opponents this season.
The Jets have 15 takeaways in their five games, just two fewer than Denver and one fewer than Philadelphia, both of which have played one more game than New York. That impressive work in forcing turnovers (eight interceptions, seven fumble recoveries) has counteracted the team's own issues with ball security (Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 7 INTs, and Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have combined to lose three fumbles), and as a result, the Jets' plus-5 turnover ratio has them just one behind the league leader.
In the Jets' lone loss of the year, they turned the ball over four times while forcing just one. In the team's other four games, they've got a plus-8 ratio.
The Patriots, meanwhile, lead the league with just three giveaways.
Clearly, something's gotta give, and whichever team secures the ball will likely end up as the victor.
The Jets Can Score
The Jets would probably be seen as a more legitimate contender if their quarterback was not Ryan Fitzpatrick. The 11th-year pro is the perfect picture of NFL quarterbacking mediocrity, with his 60.3 percent completion rate, 132 touchdowns and 108 interceptions to go with his 37-56-1 record as a starter.
He's been perfectly average this season, throwing for 235.4 yards per game while completing nine touchdowns and throwing seven interceptions.
In his career against the Patriots, though, he's been much worse than average. In seven games, he's impressively averaged 291.3 yards per contest, but he's also thrown 13 touchdowns and 17 interceptions while losing six of the seven matchups. And he's much worse on the road, where he has a career 1-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, compared to at home, where that ratio jumps to 1.49-to-1.
Despite Fitzpatrick's shortcomings, the Jets can move the ball. They rank seventh in points per game and eighth in yards per game.
That is a credit to the work of Chris Ivory, whose 5.5 yards per carry rank him fourth in the NFL, just 0.2 yards behind Todd Gurley. Ivory's been able to make his way into the end zone four times this year, which ties him for the third-most rushing touchdowns in the league.
Though Brandon Marshall has put up some numbers (37-511-4) and Eric Decker remains dangerous (18-239-4), the key to New York's offense will be Ivory. If the Patriots can contain the running back, then the pressure will shift to Fitzpatrick's shoulders. That's likely the best-case scenario for New England.
But stopping Ivory is easier said than done. He's rushed for 312 yards in the past two games. New England's 30th-ranked-ranked rushing defense (in terms of yards per attempt) is going to be put to the test.
The Patriots Can Score, Too
Of course, the Patriots have themselves a decent little offense, too.
Tom Brady ranks second in the league with 340 passing yards per game, and his 14-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio remains best in the NFL. He'll also likely get Brandon LaFell back into the mix this week.
Though the run game hasn't been asked to carry the offense, it has performed when needed in the red zone, as the Patriots are tied for fourth with seven rushing touchdowns on the season.
Now, the Jets rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed by a wide margin, allowing 269.2 yards per game. Denver ranks second with 281.3. And the Jets also rank first in the NFL in points allowed, averaging just 15 points for the opponent thus far.
That's impressive, without a doubt ... but, they have faced Cleveland, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Miami and Washington, teams that rank 10th, 19th, 14th, 24th and 25th in offense, respectively. In terms of scoring offense, those teams rank 12th, 23rd, 10th, 24th and 28th. Aside from Andrew Luck, the quarterback gauntlet of Johnny Manziel, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins was not exactly a murderer's row.
So the Jets have not faced any tests quite as difficult as the Tom Brady-led Patriots. At the same time, the Patriots have faced the 23rd, 17th, 19th, 12th and 29th-ranked defenses in terms of yards allowed, and the fifth, 16th, 30th, 23rd and 18th-ranked defenses in terms of points allowed. So the same criticism might stick.
In any case, each unit -- the Patriots' offense, the Jets' defense -- will serve as the other's biggest test of the season. It's a strength vs. strength, and it ought to be quite the struggle to watch.
The Revis Factor
While Patriots fans may have basked in the glory of having Darrelle Revis on the team last year, there's no doubt that football fans in general lost. An all-time great quarterback and an all-time great cornerback being on the same team is just kind of wasteful. The historically great Nintendo game "Jordan Vs. Bird" doesn't exist if they're passing to each other on the same team, you know?
So finally, we're back to getting to watch Brady vs. Revis twice a year.
We haven't seen the showdown since Week 3 of the 2013 season, but considering Revis was coming back from his knee injury and was misused by Bucs coach Greg Schiano, that one hardly counts. So prior to that, we haven't seen the Brady-Revis showdown since Week 10 of 2011. That's a long time ago.
So the latest Brady-Revis matchup should be an intriguing one. They're both older and much wiser, having gotten to know each other's tendencies in intimate detail last year on the practice field. Who will Revis cover? And without a Randy Moss to run a few deep routes, does Brady even bother testing Revis?
It may be just a minor subplot to the game overall, but if there is indeed a cat-and-mouse situation at play, it'll be awfully captivating.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
