Patriots-Dolphins What To Watch For: Will either offense score in Week 5?
FOXBORO -- The Patriots have lost three straight, but they actually head into Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium as slight favorites. New England is favored by as much as one whole point in some sports books.
Home teams usually get about three points simply for being the home team, so it's tough to really consider New England favorites this weekend. But believe it or not, the Dolphins may be a worse football team than the Patriots at the moment.
After losing Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion in Week 2, Miami is now on its fourth quarterback in Tyler Huntley. Jacoby Brissett hasn't been able to do much of anything so far, but New England's QB situation may be slightly better than Miami's on Sunday.
Unfortunately, everything else with the New England offense is a mess. But the Dolphins are a mess too, with Raheem Mostert missing the last three games and trade rumors rumbling around star receiver Tyreek Hill.
Don't expect many points from either team come Sunday afternoon. The Patriots are 31st in the NFL, averaging 13 points per game. The Dolphins are even worse, ranking last at 11.3 points per game. Miami has yet to hold a lead so far this season, winning on an overtime field goal in Week 1.
Is anyone going to score any offensive points this weekend? With these two teams, it feels like all the points are going to come from kickers or the on defense. There's a good chance we see a safety or two.
At least the weather looks spectacular in Foxboro. Here's what we'll be watching for on Sunday as the Patriots try to win their first home game since last October.
New England's offensive line without David Andrews
On the list of players the Patriots couldn't afford to lose, David Andrews was right near the top. With Andrews likely done for the year with a shoulder injury, Nick Leverett -- a converted guard -- is set to take over as New England's starting center.
Oh, Leverett is also banged up, limited Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury. That left practice squad center Bryan Hudson to take all the first-team reps in practice, according to OC Alex Van Pelt.
And that's just at center. Left tackle Vederian Lowe has been limited with a knee injury, and rookie Caedan Wallace didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday with an ankle injury. The Patriots had Demontrey Jacobs at left tackle last week in San Francisco.
At least both Lowe and guard Michael Jordan ramped things up in practice on Thursday. But that doesn't change the fact that the Patriots are counting on guys like Vederian Lowe and Michael Jordan to save the offensive line.
The game of musical chairs along the line has led to zero continuity with the group, and Brissett taking an absolute beating every week. He's up to 40 QB hits on the season, and you have to wonder how much more he can take.
The Dolphins just lost star edge rusher Jaelan Phillips to a season-ending knee injury, who had a sack and two QB hits over four games this season. So that's one guy the New England offensive line won't have to contend with. But Calais Campbell (two sacks, three QB hits) will be out there and will pose a lot of problems for an O-line that hasn't had any luck protecting its quarterback this season.
Rhamondre's Reduced Role?
It sounds like the Patriots will be starting a different running back behind their offensive line this weekend. After fumbling in each of the first four games this season -- and losing one in each of the last two games -- Rhamomdre Stevenson is being put in a time out by Jerod Mayo and company.
Mayo said that the team is giving strong consideration to giving Antonio Gibson more reps than Stevenson on Wednesday morning. In voicing that to the media, he all but confirmed that will be the case come Sunday. Don't expect it to be a full game punishment though; the Patriots don't have enough firepower on offense to completely sit Stevenson. But a message needs to be sent.
The Patriots barely score as it is, so they are not a team that can be giving away possessions. Especially when those giveaways set the opposition up with some primo field position, like Stevenson's fumble last weekend that set the 49ers up at the New England 30. Because the New England D remains a pretty decent unit, the 49ers were held to a field goal.
Gibson is a capable playmaker and could be in line for a breakout game on Sunday. Miami has given up at least 100 rushing yards in all four games, with teams averaging at least 4.2 yards per carry in three of those four games. The Titans only averaged 3.6 yards per carry last Sunday against the Dolphins, but they racked up 142 yards on the ground.
The Patriots need to run the ball to win on Sunday, and at some point they'll have to put the ball back in Stevenson's hands to get it done. The team is hoping that a stretch on the sideline will make it clear to Stevenson that the ball needs to stay in his hands.
Third-Down Defense
Mayo was hard on his defense last week too, upset over the number of third-down conversions the team surrendered. San Francisco was 7-for-13 on third down, and Mayo highlighted the defense's inability to keep Brock Purdy in the pocket as the main culprit. Davon Godchaux even called out some of his teammates for their "selfish" play on WEEI on Monday, saying the defense needs to play as a unit and not go after personal stats.
Purdy was able to escape pressure and buy time, setting up plays downfield. Aaron Rodgers did that in Week 3 as well, and he's a 40-year-old coming off a major injury. For the season, New England's opponents are converting 51.85 percent of their third-down tries. That has the Patriots' defense ranked 31st in the league on third down. (The Dolphins have the NFL's best third-down defense, holding opponents to a 23.81 percent conversion rate.)
The Miami offense is 25th in the NFL on third down, moving the chains just 32.73 percent of the time. They're a tick worse than the Patriots in that department, with New England checking in at 24th with a 32.76 percent success rate on third down.
Huntley is an extremely limited quarterback, passing for just 96 yards on 22 attempts against Tennessee. But he can beat teams with his legs, as he picked up three first downs on either designed runs or scrambles last week. New England's inability to contain quarterbacks the last few weeks will be something Miami looks to exploit on Sunday.
New England's secondary vs. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle
The Patriots shouldn't sleep on Huntley as a passer either, but only because he'll be throwing the football to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The QB will eventually find his game-changing receivers with a big pass, and even if he doesn't, both can do a lot of incredible things with the ball after a short catch.
Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones will have to be at the top of their games in the New England secondary. Losing Kyle Dugger -- who was carted off the field last week and hasn't practice this week -- won't help. The hard-hitting Jabrill Peppers was also hurt in San Fran, suffering a back injury on his interception, but he was at least limited at practice on Thursday after missing Wednesday's session.
We got to see Gonzo vs. Hill last year, and the then-rookie corner earned a ton of praise when he held the dynamic Hill to one catch for eight yards. Gonzalez also had his first career interception when shadowing Hill. (Hill finished his night with five receptions on nine targets for 40 yards and a two-yard touchdown.) Jonathan Jones has also had success while covering Hill, so the Patriots may end up playing sides with their corners rather than sticking one on a particular receiver.
The Patriots have given up some big plays, so Mike McDaniel will have his offense take a few shots down field. The New England defense has to make sure that Miami's short passes don't turn into long receptions too, so they'll have to get back to their pristine tackling from Week 1 against the Bengals to really contain Hill and Waddle this weekend.
We'll get you ready for Patriots-Dolphins showdown Sunday morning at 11:30 a.m. with Patriots GameDay on WBZ-TV and streaming on CBSBoston.com! After the game, switch over to Patriots 5th Quarter on TV38 for full reaction and analysis.
