Patriots-Dolphins Week 1 What To Watch For: Can Pats protect Mac from Miami's pass rush?

BOSTON -- Week 1 of the NFL season is here and soon enough, all of those questions and concerns people have voiced about the 2022 New England Patriots will be answered and/or allayed. Or we'll just have even more questions and more concerns pop up during their Week 1 clash against the Dolphins in Miami. 

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Patriots, even after they ended a one-year postseason absence with a 10-7 season in 2021. Mac Jones has a better crop of receivers, but he no longer has Josh McDaniels to turn to on the sideline. Instead, Bill Belichick opted for a tag-team effort from Matt Patricia and Joe Judge (neither of whom hold the official title of Offensive Coordinator), all while installing some new wrinkles on offense. It was not pretty throughout the preseason.

The defense has gone through some changes as well, from the secondary to the linebacking corps. There is a lot more youth and speed on the roster, but they're fairly short at experience with several players playing new positions. 

It's going to be a process to start the season, and unfortunately the Patriots kick 2022 off in a place that hasn't been very kind to them over the years. A trip to Miami has always given New England issues, even when it was the Belichick-Brady combo. The Patriots have won just two of their last nine visits to South Beach, and overall, they've lost three straight to the Dolphins and six of their last nine meetings. 

Not the best way to kick off that process, but here's what we'll be watching for when the Patriots and the Dolphins square off on Sunday afternoon.

Protecting Mac against the Miami pass rush

Brian Flores is gone, but the defense that he installed in Miami remains. That could spell trouble for Mac Jones and the Patriots' highly questionable offensive line when the Dolphins send some serious pressure the quarterback's way.

The Dolphins were fifth in the NFL with 48 sacks last season, though only three of those sacks were against the Patriots. Jones was only sacked once in his NFL debut in Week 1, which came on his first NFL drive when he looked like a kid on his first NFL drive. Jones "fumbled" -- if you can really call it that -- but the Patriots recovered, though they had to punt the ball away a few plays later.

The rookie would have liked to forget about that one, but he somehow still remembered it after being hit nine times by the Dolphins in the 17-16 loss. Jones was sacked twice in Week 17, but at least Miami's QB hits were down to just three. The results, however, were the same (or worse) as the Patriots lost 33-24.

The majority of Miami's pass rushers are back, including the team's sack leader the last two seasons, Emmanuel Ogbah -- who had nine sacks in each 2020 and 2021, and second-year linebacker Jaelan Phillips (8.5 sacks last season). Safety Brandon Jones isn't afraid to charge at the quarterback (five sacks last season), and there are two newcomers who know a thing or two about getting to the quarterback in Melvin Ingram and old friend Trey Flowers. 

Jones' targets need to get open in a hurry on Sunday, and running backs need to hold their blocks. We don't need to see the franchise QB in constant peril and fearing for his life in Week 1.

The Dolphins don't have that one guy that teams need to focus on in the pass rush. They have a whole team of guys that need attention, which will be a massive challenge for the New England offensive line. Mac's protectors did not look great in the preseason, and he looked frazzled in the pocket during his brief time on the field. Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn are reportedly miffed at their position switch, and both seem like an injury waiting to happen. Losing either -- Wynn has been limited all week leading up to Sunday's game -- would further test the depth of the line, which is also relying on a rookie in Cole Strange at left guard. 

It's all a bit worrisome. If the offensive line crumbles, the whole operation usually falls apart. That unit is one of the biggest question marks heading into the 2022 season, and they're going to be tested right out of the gate.

Can the Patriots establish the run?

Another concern with the offensive line: The New England rush attack went nowhere when starters were on the field in the preseason. They went mostly backwards when they tried going outside in the new zone-block scheme. Now they're out of practice games and have to do it in a real game that counts for the standings.

Miami was a middle of the pack run defense last season, and the Patriots did have some success against them on the ground. New England rushers picked up 125 rushing yards in Week 1, and 134 yards while averaging 5.0 yards per carry in Week 18. But they were never really in that Week 18 matchup last season, and Damien Harris fumbled away their shot at a comeback win in Week 1. 

Harris is still the lead back on the depth chart, but Rhamondre Stevenson is primed to take over out of the backfield this season, both on the ground and in the air. We'll see if both backs can get it going on Sunday. 

Can the Patriots stop the run?

And then there is the flip side of the equation. The Patriots defense has had some massive bodies along the line, but they haven't been able to stop the run for years. Now they'll face a team led by Mike McDaniel, who coached some of the league's best running teams while in San Francisco. The 49ers were second in the NFL in rushing yards in 2019 when McDaniel served as the team's run game coordinator. 

The Patriots will look to slow, or at least stop, Miami's three-headed monster of running backs in Chase Edmonds, Myles Gaskin, and Raheem Mostert. Edmonds and Gaskin are both dual-threat backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield, while Mostert (who missed all but one game for the 49ers last season) had his best season in 2019 in McDaniel's system in San Fran.

That is what the Patriots' D-line and new crop of younger, speedier linebackers have to worry about Sunday in Miami. But it's not the most concerning part about the Miami offense. Not by a longshot.

Patriots secondary vs. Miami's dynamic receiving duo

The Dolphins already had a pretty talented pass-catcher in Jaylen Waddle, who had nine receptions and a pair of touchdowns as a rookie in his two games against the Patriots last season. Now dynamic speedster Tyreek Hill is part of Tua Tagovailoa's arsenal, and that will present some big issues for the New England secondary.

Hill is no stranger to burning Patriots defensive backs. He's scored five touchdowns in his four regular-season meetings with New England, averaging six receptions and just over 100 yards per game. And that was when the New England secondary included guys like Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson.

Now the secondary has Jalen Mills atop the depth chart with Jonathan Jones moving from the slot to the outside. Myles Bryant got some run in the slot during the preseason, with Shaun Wade and rookies Jack and Marcus Jones rounding out the depth chart.

Jones was the guy to cover Hill in the past, so he'll likely have those honors again on Sunday. Jones is as solid as they get, but this is not an easy task for a guy playing his first game since last October.

Can this group contain one of the most dynamic receivers in the game, while also containing one of the best young receivers in the game? It's not going to be easy, and if either of those burners can get behind the defense, it's going to lead to a big play. Or several big plays.

The best way to combat this will be getting to Tua and making him get out of his comfort zone. And lot of safety help. Lots and lots of safety help.

BONUS: Conditioning

A big deal has been made about Belichick taking his team to Florida on Tuesday for a week of practice at the, shall we say, somewhat interesting setup at Palm Beach Atlantic University in West Palm Beach -- a school that does not have a football team. 

The biggest factor, however, is practicing in and acclimating to the humid conditions in Florida. While their trip to Vegas in the preseason was hot, the Patriots will be dealing with an absolute blanket of humidity on Sunday. It makes sense to give your team as much time as possible to adapt to those conditions ahead of their first full football game in eight months. (Matthew Judon will still be in his long sleeves, of course.)

Some are calling it a desperate move, but given the history of the Patriots in Miami (no need to revisit that nightmare), is it really a bad thing to change it up a bit? Going down on the Friday or Saturday ahead of the game hasn't worked, with the team looking gassed a number of times late in games in recent history. Maybe three days of practice in the mugginess will do the trick.

We'll find out Sunday afternoon.

Tune in to Patriots-Dolphins on WBZ-TV -- the television home of the New England Patriots! Coverage continues Friday night on WBZ-TV at 7 p.m. with Patriots All Access. Sunday's coverage kicks off at 11:30 a.m. with Patriots GameDay, the Patriots and the Dolphins get underway at 1 p.m., and after the game switch over to Patriots 5th Quarter on TV38 for full reaction and analysis!