What to watch for when the Patriots host Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

FOXBORO -- A late-season Patriots-Chiefs clash used to be one of the games that you'd circle on the calendar and clear out a four-hour window for. Now the NFL is opting to bury the matchup on a Sunday afternoon.

The mighty have certainly fallen in Foxboro, with this weekend's game becoming the first game to ever be flexed out of Monday Night Football. With New England sitting at the bottom of the standings, not even the allure of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the possibility of a pop superstar in the stands could save Pats-Chiefs from the flex of the NFL. 

But that doesn't mean that Sunday afternoon has no chance at being a good, enjoyable football game. Make no mistake, the Patriots are bad. Real bad. And the Chiefs are good. Very good.

But these are not the same Chiefs that lit up the NFL over the last five years. And at the moment, they're scuffling a bit, dropping two straight. Meanwhile, New England is coming off a win last Thursday night, and another one Sunday afternoon would give the Pats their first winning streak of the season. With players seemingly rallying around Bill Belichick, a win over a perennial Super Bowl favorite would really give a big boost to the New England locker room.

Could the Patriots pull off an upset? Crazier things have happened in the NFL this season. Here's what we'll be watching for on Sunday -- besides Taylor Swift, of course.

Protecting Zappe

Kansas City has never really been known for having a strong/very good defense. But that is their calling card in 2023.

Mahomes is still the man and Kelce is as big of a game-changer as they get, but the Chiefs can thank their defense for their eight wins this season. They've allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game and opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of just 86.0 against Kansas City this season.

Bailey Zappe looked much better last week against Pittsburgh, though he and the offense took a massive dip in the second half as they were shut out by the Steelers. He should be better in his third start of the season, but Zappe has a difficult matchup against a defense that can really get to the quarterback.

He'll have to keep his head on a swivel all day Sunday, as Kansas City has the third-most sacks this season with 42. George Karlaftis is leading the charge with nine, while talented defensive tackle Chris Jones has 7.5 sacks and 20 QB hits on the year. 

After a rough day against the Chargers in Week 13, the New England offensive line bounced back well last week and allowed just two sacks in Pittsburgh. We'll see if Trent Brown, David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, and company can keep it going against a talented Kansas City defensive front.

How about a few turnovers?

Very few things can change a game like a turnover. Last week, the Patriots turned a Jabrill Peppers interception of Mitch Trubisky into a touchdown, giving them a 14-3 edge early in the second quarter. The Pats have seven interceptions this season, and that was just the third that the offense turned into a touchdown. Of the five fumbles the team has recovered, only one resulted in a touchdown and one resulted in a field goal. (One ended with a missed field goal, another with a punt, and the other ended New England's win over the Bills.)

The first step, of course, is to force a turnover. That isn't easy against Mahomes, but he had thrown three picks in his last four games and is up to 11 on the season, nearly matching the dozen he threw last year over 17 games. The Chiefs have also lost seven fumbles, three of which have been ripped from the hands of KC receivers.

So if the Patriots can snag a Mahomes pass out of the air or jostle one loose from someone in the open field, it would give them a much better chance at an upset. They will, however, need to take care of the ball themselves for that to mean anything. New England hasn't had a turnover-free game since Week 3's win against the Jets. 

The Chiefs have generated only 15 turnovers this season though, and none of their seven picks have come away from Arrowhead Stadium. So maybe the Patriots' offense can have a clean game Sunday for the first time in months.

Mad Mahomes

Did you see Patrick Mahomes after last week's loss to the Bills? The man was mad. Furious. Absolutely raging that the NFL would have the audacity to correctly call a penalty.

He has cooled down a bit since his sideline tizzy, but he's going to be one angry man again once Sunday's game kicks off. The Chiefs have now lost two straight for the first time since 2021, and they have never lost three straight with Mahomes at quarterback.

So no one would be surprised if Mahomes comes in and drops a 40 burger on New England. But it would also be somewhat surprising, since the Chiefs are averaging only 22.5 points per game and have 31 or more points just three times this season.

A lot of that has to do with Mahomes' supporting cast. After Kelce, there isn't much. Rookie Rashee Rice is the team's second-leading receiver, Kadarius Toney is better known for committing game-costing penalties than making catches, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is just kinda there. 

Mahomes is still an MVP candidate, because the man is just that good. And if he's locked in and determined to destroy the New England defense on Sunday, chances are he'll get it done.

The key will be to keep Kelce in check (and we wish Peppers and Kyle Dugger the best of luck at that) and force KC's other skill players to beat them. If Mahomes comes out still fuming with the NFL and a little over-anxious, the New England defense may be able to take advantage. 

A lot of Elliott everywhere

It will be The Zeke Show once again out of the New England backfield, with Ezekiel Elliott coming off his most productive game in a Patriots uniform. He racked up 140 total yards in Pittsburgh and scored the game's first touchdown when he turned a short pass from Zappe into an 11-yard score.

While he had 68 rushing yards, Elliott averaged just 3.1 yards on his 22 carries. But he's going to be a huge part of New England's game plan on Sunday, unless Kansas City jumps out to a three-touchdown lead early. And his yards per carry should go up from Week 14.

The Chiefs rank 20th this season against the run, allowing 114.9 yards per game. They've allowed 100 or more rushing yards in all but two games this season. 

Elliott is an old school bell cow out of the backfield, and the Patriots will be ringing that bell a lot the rest of the way. Zeke is going to eat well again against the Chiefs.