Patriots-Browns What To Watch For: Run run Rhamondre
BOSTON -- This is a pretty important game for the New England Patriots. They have a chance to get back to .500 with a win over the Browns on Sunday, and need to take full advantage of this soft spot on the schedule.
The Browns, meanwhile, are also looking to get back to .500 after a 2-3 start to the season. They've dropped two straight by a combined total of five points. Cleveland's three losses this season have been by a grand total of six points.
Still, if the Patriots want to jump back into postseason contention, this is not the kind of team they can be losing games to -- even on the road and even with a third-string quarterback. The Browns could also eventually sneak into the playoff picture when Deshaun Watson comes back, so this could be a big one in the tie breaker department. The Patriots need this game.
But the Browns need this one too, and they're going to be determined to give their home fans a win. The Browns have blown double digit leads TWICE this season, leading to losses against the Jets and the Chargers -- both of which happened on the FirstEnergy Stadium field.
Here's what we'll be watching for when the Patriots and the Browns do battle on Sunday afternoon in Cleveland.
Run Rhamondre a lot and then run him some more
Rhamondre Stevenson, this is your game. He gets to follow up last weekend's career-high of 161 rushing yards against the Lions by going against one of the worst rush defense in the NFL this weekend. The Browns defense is allowing 138.2 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL) and 5.3 yards per carry (30th). Stevenson is going to barrel over all of Cleveland with relative ease this weekend. And with Damien Harris on the shelf with a hamstring injury, Stevenson is going to feast out of the backfield.
Rookies Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris (promoted from the practice squad on Thursday) are in line for some carries as well, but this is Stevenson's game. He showed last week that he can carry the load and take a lot off the quarterback's shoulders, and Stevenson has another weak run defense that he can tear to shreds on Sunday.
Don't let the Browns run wild
Now we're gonna flip it. The Patriots are going to have their hands full stopping the run as well. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are a formidable rushing duo, and Cleveland is averaging 192.4 yards on the ground over the first five games.
Chubb is a monster. He's found the end zone seven times already and racked up 593 rushing yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He also leads the NFL with 415 yards after contact and 42 missed tackles. Chubb is one tough guy to bring down, and he's about to face a Patriots defense that has missed 29 tackles on the season -- tied for the seventh-most in the NFL.
Hunt isn't bad either. He's picked up 247 yards on his 57 carries, good for an average of 4.3 yards per attempt, with a pair of touchdowns. As a team, the Browns are averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
All of that sets up a successful play-action attack too, with Jacoby Brissett averaging 10.8 yards on his 33 play-action passes. He doesn't run much, but he is also averaging 5.3 yards on his 21 carries to boot.
The Patriots haven't been able to stop the run for a while now, and this season is no different. They rank 22nd in the NFL allowing 128.2 yards per game. They're allowing 4.8 yards per career, which is 23rd in the league. New England's run defense is going to have to be a lot better against the Browns, who possess a really solid offensive line. Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise, and Carl Davis are going to have to win their battles in the trenches to close up holes, and it would certainly help if Lawrence Guy returns from injury.
Edge protection
Protecting Bailey Zappe (or Mac Jones, maybe, but probably not) got a lot easier thanks to Friday's news that Jadeveon Clowney has been ruled out with a myriad of injuries. The Browns weren't getting to the QB all that much with both Clowney and Myles Garrett on the field, and now the Patriots can direct more attention Garrett's way on Sunday.
As a team, the Browns have only nine sacks on the season (three of which came from Garrett in his four games), and they've only generated pressure on the quarterback on 20 percent of the drop backs they've faced.
Trent Brown will still be plenty busy with Garrett, and will require the occasional helping hand/chip along the line from Hunter Henry. But keeping the quarterback clean for a second straight week -- in addition to opening some gigantic holes for Stevenson to run through -- is a very real possibility for the Patriots.
HOLD ON TO THE FOOTBALL
Here we are again, begging the Patriots to keep the ball away from the other team. New England has 10 turnovers so far this season, and is a minus-2 in turnover differential. Only the Saints (13 turnovers), Rams (12), and Colts (11) have more turnovers than the Patriots this season. (The Chicago Bears also have 10 turnovers, but have played six games.)
The Browns haven't been actively taking the ball away from opposing offenses, with just four turnovers (two picks, two fumble recoveries) on the season. And the Patriots have been much better at hanging onto the ball over the last two weeks, with just two interceptions over that span. One of those picks wasn't even Zappe's fault, since Nelson Agholor let a nice catch bounce off his mitts and into the hands of the Lions.
But a turnover is a turnover, and each one has a chance at coming back to haunt the Patriots. The Pats cannot be playing against themselves in the turnover department.
This figures to be a close game with a lot on the line for both teams, so every possession matters. The Patriots really need to stop giving free ones away to the opposition.
Tune in to Sunday's Patriots-Browns clash on WBZ-TV -- the television home of the New England Patriots. Sunday's coverage kicks off at 11:30 a.m. on WBZ-TV with Patriots GameDay, followed by Pats-Browns at 1 p.m. We wrap it all up on TV38 after the game with Patriots 5th Quarter!
