How accurate are the Farmers' and Old Farmer's Almanac winter predictions for Massachusetts?
This month the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac released their extended winter forecasts. But how accurate are these predictions? WBZ-TV executive weather producer and meteorologist Terry Eliasen weighs in below.
BOSTON - Recently, the Farmers' Almanac came out with their winter prediction. And, not to be outdone, the Old Farmer's Almanac (a totally different publication based in Dublin, New Hampshire), just put out its own winter preview.
We'd all like to know what this winter is going to be like, so in a way this is like throwing a pile of candy out in front of a first grader. But here's your annual word of warning: Don't take the bait.
The trouble with winter weather predictions
Both almanacs are full of great information - just skip over the weather forecast portion. At this point in the year, there really is no way to accurately predict what the upcoming winter has in store. The WBZ weather team will attempt to do so later in November, but frankly, even then that is nothing more than an educated guess.
Not to throw shade, but check out the Farmers' Almanac winter forecast last year: Cold and snowy in the northeast.
That one didn't age well. In fact, Boston had one of its least snowy winters on record.
If there was ever going to be a winter that you could make an early forecast and be correct, the last one should have been it. We knew that a strong El Nino was coming on and that nearly always favors a mild winter here in the northeast. Our WBZ Weather team was on that one from the jump.
Odds favor milder winter in Boston
At this point, there are no strong signals pointing us in any one direction for the winter of 2024-2025. El Nino is gone, and we are in a "La-Nada" phase, essentially in neutral. We may edge toward a weak La Nina as we enter the winter but that remains to be seen.
Given that every winter in Boston has been near average or, in most cases, well above average temperature-wise in the last 10 years, odds favor a milder than average winter. This is not going out on a limb.
You have to go back to that ridiculous winter of 2014-2015 for the last truly cold winter around here. Is something like that possible again? Sure. But the odds are very much against it.
Our winters over the last several years seem to be following a rather familiar pattern. Overall, there are many more milder-than-average days than colder. Many more warm temperature records than cold.
Sure, we can still get a couple of Arctic outbreaks each winter, but they seem to be lasting for fewer and fewer days.
As for snow, it seems to all come in a few heavy bursts now rather than several smaller to moderate sized storms. It also doesn't tend to stick around as long as it used to thanks to the milder temperatures.
Anyhow, don't grab at the low-hanging fruit. It may be fun to speculate on winter in August, but Mother Nature has not made her winter plans yet.
