Another mild winter for Massachusetts? NOAA maps show long-range seasonal forecast.
BOSTON - It may be September, but it's time to talk about winter. And depending on how you feel about snow, there could be some good news for you in the long-range forecast for Massachusetts.
NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, released its winter seasonal outlook on Thursday. The federal agency's maps are probability based and cover the months of December, January and February.
The temperature forecast favors above-average temperatures across the southern tier of the United States and for the entire East Coast.
NOAA's precipitation forecast looks wetter than average across most of the northern states and drier than average across the south.
La Niña impact on winter forecast
The vast majority of this forecast was based on one factor, La Niña .
We are already seeing signs of a La Niña in the waters off of South America.
La Niña is a cooling of these waters compared to average, the opposite of El Niño.
NOAA is predicting a 71% chance of La Niña emerging and continuing in the coming months, likely lasting right through the upcoming winter.
Most models are forecasting a relatively weak La Niña.
Looking at a typical La Niña winter across the United States, you can see why NOAA made their prediction.
This is just a general idea for the winter, of course there will always be day-to-day and week-to-week variability.
Despite the ocean being cooler than average in the La Niña region, it is otherwise still very warm overall. The ocean temperatures across the Pacific and Atlantic also play a major role in shaping the winter pattern.
Odds favor mild winter for New England
The WBZ Weather Team will make our official winter prediction in November. However, at this point, there's no major reason or evidence to dispute the NOAA forecast.
We haven't had a truly cold winter here since 2014-2015 and the snowfall amounts in recent years have been laughably low. Given the current state of our oceans and atmosphere, it will be exceedingly difficult to get a below average (temperatures) winter season.
Sure, there will be some periods of cold and some snow, but the early odds favor yet another mild winter for 2024-2025.
