Hurley's Picks: Patriots did what they had to do with Bill Belichick
BOSTON -- I was pretty surprised on Thursday morning. Not by the news of Bill Belichick's time being up with the Patriots, no. That one had been brewing for some time.
I was surprised, though, by how surprised people were by the move.
Perhaps many folks were living in denial, I suppose, but the reaction by some made it seem as though the Patriots were coming off a Super Bowl appearance and just had one down year. Some of the vitriol I've seen aimed at Robert Kraft was certainly unexpected from my vantage point, as the owner has very clearly laid out his demands over the past several offseasons: win playoff games. The Patriots haven't done that for five years, and so -- as happens just about every single time in the NFL -- the head coach is gone. (Belichick went 29-36 over the past four seasons. Outside of Ron Rivera and his 26-40-1 record in Washington, fellow fired coaches had better records. Mike Vrabel was 36-31 in Tennessee and Pete Carroll was 37-30 in Seattle. Brandon Staley was 24-24 in three seasons with the Chargers, and Arthur Smith was 21-30 since 2021.)
Obviously, this head coach was different. To say the least. And if ownership were to have judged Belichick on coaching alone, he'd probably have made the case to remain in place while a new GM with a better understanding of building an offense was hired to revamp the roster. Alas, the Patriots were Belichick, and Belichick was the Patriots, so there was no reasonable path forward.
Some of this had been covered up in recent years, when the Patriots were passably good enough to keep people off the scent. The 2021 team made the playoffs with a rookie quarterback ... and a .394 strength of victory. But the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge coaching decision in 2022 broke too many parts of what was a functioning offense under Josh McDaniels, and despite the addition of Bill O'Brien (reportedly against Belichick's will) wasn't enough for the Patriots' offense to overcome a lack of high-impact players on offense.
Rewind it all back to Belichick deciding not to commit to Tom Brady for the long term, and it's not at all difficult to understand why this happened. Since 2020, the Patriots have ranked 27th, 15th, 26th and 30th in offensive yards gained. They've ranked 27th, 6th, 17th and 31st in points scored. That came after the team on average ranked third in points scored for the previous 11 seasons with Brady. Work in some other factors -- believing Jarrett Stidham and then Cam Newton could replace Tom Brady, having Matt LaCosse and a retired Ben Watson replace Rob Gronkowski, picking N'Keal Harry in the first round over Deebo Samuel/A.J. Brown/D.K. Metcalf/Diontae Johnson, drafting Sony Michel and Isaiah Wynn over Lamar Jackson, JuJu Smith-Schuster over Jakobi Meyers, $31.25 million for Jonnu Smith and $22 million for Nelson Agholor, a second-round pick for Mohamed Sanu, overlooking the offensive tackle position in 2023, etc. -- and it's beyond clear that this particular offensive philosophy can't work in the NFL.
And so, when the 25-25-ness of the 2020-22 Patriots gave way to the 2-and-10-ness of the 2023 Patriots, I figured that at least everyone would see the situation clearly enough to understand and expect a change of this magnitude. Alas, someone as legendary as Belichick clearly had a lot of people believing that his run in New England would never, could never, and should never end.
All of that being said, Belichick may well go on to have success at his next stop, especially if it's somewhere with a juiced-up roster that just needs some coaching help. Maybe Dallas, Philadelphia or Buffalo swing big after potential early postseason exits, or maybe the Chargers or Falcons bulk up for Belichick. Either way, even if Belichick isn't at his mid-2000s best, the man is still the best coach the modern game has ever seen, and he can be better than 90 percent of his peers when working with a full deck. (The New England defense did rank in the top eight in each of the past three seasons.)
If that does happen, though, and Belichick looks great at his next stop, that shouldn't reflect poorly on the Patriots and Robert and Jonathan Kraft for making this decision. With Belichick running literally every facet of the organization for so long, the train had come too far off the tracks for it to be realigned by the same person who derailed it to begin with. That's just a cold and harsh reality, and it's one that the Krafts didn't necessarily want to face. A 4-13 record forced it upon them, though, and as "custodians of the franchise," they did what had to be done. And so, a new era begins in New England.
(Make no mistake: If it's Jerod Mayo, it will be a new era, despite the fact that Mayo played for Belichick and coached under Belichick. Spend 15 seconds talking to Jerod Mayo, and you will have no trouble understanding that he is the polar opposite of his previous boss in every observable way.)
(Home team in CAPS; Thursday lines)
HOUSTON (+2) over Cleveland
Man. First, the Texans get slotted into the Texans Memorial Playoff Window on Saturday afternoon, then they're made home dogs? Against the Browns? The disrespect!
Yeah, the Browns are dangerous, and we're all afraid of Joe Flacco these days. And the Browns beat the Texans in Houston in Week 16 ... but C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins didn't play. STRIKE IT FROM THE RECORD.
Either way, you can't feel tremendously great about picking either the Cleveland Browns or the Houston Texans to win a playoff game. But the Texans aren't bad, they're at home, and as a franchise, they're used to playing postseason games in the middle of the day on a Saturday. Advantage: Houston.
KANSAS CITY (-4.5) over Miami
The Dolphins already weren't a great road team, and the Dolphins already had trouble beating good teams. And now they're going on the road, playing a good team ... on a sub-zero night in Kansas City? I almost don't want to even analyze further.
So I won't!
(Dolphins went 4-4 on the road. Dolphins went 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs. Dolphins are going to be playing in negative-4-degree weather.)
Pittsburgh (+10) over BUFFALO
This is such a great spread! Bravo, oddsmakers. You've made a wonderful spread!
Obviously, the Pittsburgh Steelers are not going to win. They're meh enough at full strength, but without T.J. Watt, what is even the point? And yes, it's extremely possible -- perhaps even likely -- that the Bills will win going away. I feel that will be the case.
But I've also felt like the Bills would play like a team eager to make the playoffs down the stretch. And while they did win enough games to make the postseason and shockingly win the division ... they freaking barely did it. Coming off a rousing road win in Kansas City and a blowout home win over the Cowboys, the Bills ... beat the Chargers by two points ... then beat the Patriots by six. They outlasted the Dolphins in Week 18 to win by a touchdown but this was not some inspirational march to 11 wins. This was beating a couple of bad teams in must-win games by very narrow margins.
So do you go with the fact that you feel the Bills should ragdoll the Steelers, who are not a serious team, or do you go with the games you've seen play out in recent weeks involving a Bills team that is just barely seizing the moment? I'll choose B. But again. What a spread!!
Green Bay vs. Dallas ...
This one? Man oh man, this one has some imagery! Some atmosphere! The Dallas GD Cowboys are playing a postseason game against the Green Bay GD Packers?! That's the stuff that NFL ratings dreams are made of. The jersey matchup alone is enough to leave the dumbest among us drooling by kickoff. (That's me, in case that wasn't clear.)
I'll be honest here, too: I want the Cowboys to lose, if only because the spectacle of Bill Belichick coaching Dallas next season is too much for me to deny. It's the best possible outcome from a viewing/entertainment standpoint. I understand that a loss in Super Duper Neato Wild Card Round doesn't guarantee this outcome, but the outcome also can't happen without it. So ... that's where the heart is.
The head, though, leans Dallas. While the Cowboys are the one playoff team that managed to lose to the Dolphins, they're still damn good. And while their playoff history under Mike McCarthy is sketchy, they're still damn good. And while ... OK, you can tell I'm trying to talk myself into this.
Screw it. A Dallas home collapse. It would be funny.
The Pick: Green Bay (+7) over DALLAS
I don't know if I believe that, but it makes me happy.
DETROIT (-3) over Los Angeles Rams
The Rams made the playoffs? Good for them.
I guess going from 4-6 to 10-7 is impressive. Very cool.
Nice feather in the ol' cap for Sean McVay and the fellas.
Sweet.
Anyways.
Philadelphia (-3) over TAMPA BAY
I don't know. The Eagles have given you every reason to believe they'll blow this. From the outset of the season, last year's Super Bowl losers seemed content to do just enough to beat bad teams before completely forgetting how to win at all in December and January. After Nick Sirianni embarrassed himself walking off the field in Kansas City, the Eagles beat the Bills (in OT) before going 1-5 down the stretch. A blowout loss at home to San Francisco, a blowout loss in Dallas, a narrow loss in Seattle, an INEXPLICABLE loss at home to the Cardinals, and another loss at the Giants to boot. It was a sight to behold.
So if you want to hop off the Philly Express, feel free. You may be right. There's just something to be said about the Bucs barely sneaking into the playoffs from the worst division in football while carrying an injured quarterback that makes me think even the Eagles can win this one. If that late-season slide did anything, it made this spread a whole lot less difficult to ponder than it might have been otherwise.
Last week: 10-6
Regular season: 126-136-8
(I saved all my good picks for the playoffs.)
