NFL Playoff Power Rankings
BOSTON (CBS) -- After a grueling five-month season, with four fake games and 16 real ones, the NFL's regular season is finally over.
The playoff field is set, leaving some playoff hopefuls -- like Philadelphia, San Francisco, Kansas City and San Diego -- to sit at home for the next month, stewing over the reality that they didn't make it.
Meanwhile, the top 12 teams in the league will battle it out through January for the right to play for the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 1 in Glendale.
Which teams end up there is anyone's guess, but it's typically not the pairing that most people expect heading into January. Though two of the last five Super Bowls have involved meetings of each conference's No. 1 seed, the NFL went from 1993-2009 without that happening.
Yet as unlikely as it may be to see the top teams fight through their conference to get to the Super Bowl, it's still a worthwhile exercise to take stock of the teams that are still alive and rank who's the best of the best.
So without further ado ...
1. Seattle Seahawks
Record: 12-4 (Home 7-1; Road 5-3)
Point Differential: +140
The defending champs took their time in getting into this season, starting off 3-3 and looking mediocre through the first month and a half of the year. Yet they kicked it into a championship gear around Thanksgiving, finishing the season on a six-game winning streak in which they've outscored opponents 134-39.
The vaunted Legion of Boom looks every bit like the force it was en route to winning last year's title, and the fact that the Seawhawks have earned home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs makes the chances of a return to the Super Bowl all the more likely. In addition to having a stout defense and a home stadium that presents a near-impossible challenge for visitors to win, the Seahawks also boast a smart, agile quarterback, an unstoppable running back and a head coach that has seemingly learned to keep himself occupied and not interfere with his team's chances of winning games.
As stated earlier, it's rare that things work out as they should. But Seattle should be booking a trip to Glendale later this month.
2. Green Bay Packers
Record: 12-4 (Home 8-0; Road 4-4)
Point Differential: +138
Though Patriots fans may not be happy to hear it, the two best teams in this year's playoffs reside in the NFC.
It is admittedly a close call between the No. 2 and No. 3 rankings (and it should be flip-flopped if Aaron Rodgers' left calf doesn't heal in the next two weeks), but the Packers own a slightly more impressive resume. Like the Seahawks, the Packers got off to a slow start, going 1-2 and losing to Detroit. Yet things changed rather quickly, with the Packers suffering just two hiccups from the end of September through Week 17.
The Packers did benefit from a weak schedule, as the NFC North was paired up with the dreadful NFC South this season. As a result, Green Bay faced just four teams with winning records, going 2-3 in those contests (they played divisional opponent Detroit twice). That's not the greatest look, but having the best quarterback in football under center always helps, as does having 1,100-yard bowling bowl Eddie Lacy coming out of the backfield. Provided Rodgers can regain some level of mobility with that damaged leg, the Packers figure to be the most powerful offense in the playoff field.
One of those losses to a team above .500 came in Week 1 in Seattle. A rematch for the NFC Championship Game would be worth the price of admission.
3. New England Patriots
Record: 12-4 (Home 7-1; Road 5-3)
Point Differential: +155
The common theme of the top trio of teams this year is a slow start. The 2-2 Patriots caused fans and radio hosts to go into a mass hysteria through the first month of the season. Yet now, those calls for the end of the Bill Belichick era and the calls for Tom Brady to be benched seem like ancient history, thanks to the Patriots' buzz-sawing their way through the final three months.
They went through the middle part of their schedule going 7-0, winning each week by an average score of 40-20. They slipped in Green Bay and they lost a meaningless Week 17 matchup to the Bills, an afternoon where the priority was staying healthy rather than winning a game.
Similar to Seattle's late-season surge on defense, the Patriots have been dominant lately. They have not allowed a touchdown in the second half since Week 11, and even then, the one touchdown that was scored on them in Week 11 was a trick play or sorts -- a goal-line pass to an offensive tackle.
Tom Brady may not be at his physical best, but he's not far off. Among playoff quarterbacks, only Peyton Manning rivals his intellect. And if there's one reason to really believe in the Patriots, it's this: Rob Gronkowski enters January fully healthy. Gronkowski (82 receptions, 1,124 yards, 12 TDs) has not been healthy throughout a postseason run since his rookie season of 2010. He stands to do some serious damage this time around.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Record: 12-4 (Home 4-4; Road 8-0)
Point Differential: +115
The biggest hurdles facing the Cowboys as they head into the playoffs are simple.
1. They're hosting a wild-card round game, and they've been a very spotty home team this year.
2. They're the Cowboys, so everyone is waiting for something comically terrible to happen.
The second point is unfair, of course, but success is not exactly something that's been commonplace during the Tony Romo era. The Cowboys have won just one of the four postseason games that came with Romo under center. Whether it was a bad hold in Seattle, an end-zone interception against the Giants, or a three-fumble/one-interception day against the Vikings, the playoffs have not been kind to Romo and the Cowboys.
But against all odds, the Cowboys have been undeniably good this year. Granted, it's come in classic Dallas fashion of going very hot to very cold on any given week, but the resume is undeniable. They won in Seattle, and they won two cold-weather games in December to help close out the season on a 6-1 stretch.
Like the Packers, the knock on the Cowboys may be a lack of quality competition. They faced just four teams with records better than .500, going 3-1 in those contests.
But DeMarco Murray is operating on a special sort of level, and the Cowboys will be a very tough out.
5. Denver Broncos
Record: 12-4 (Home 8-0; Road 4-4)
Point Differential: +128
Who would have thought the Broncos would be entering the playoffs this far down the list? That seemed unlikely when the Broncos started the season 6-1, their only loss coming in overtime in Seattle. But bad losses in New England, St. Louis and Cincinnati exposed a number of Denver's weaknesses. Namely, their quarterback can't throw.
That's not necessarily a new development, as Peyton Manning's arm strength has been significantly diminished during the second life of his career in Denver. Yet the Hall of Famer has made it work, setting records and dominating defenses for the better part of three seasons. Even still, Manning's passes two weeks ago in Cincinnati were some of the worst of his career, and the prospect of Peyton throwing outdoors in January is not one that bodes well for the Broncos. In fact, throwing passes in January has never been much of Manning's thing, as evidenced by his 89.2 passer rating and 11-12 record in the playoffs. His 2.26 regular-season TD-to-INT ratio drops to 1.54 in the postseason.
For as much as C.J. Anderson has helped carry the load, there's still no mistaking it: This team will go as far as Manning takes them. And if the journey involves a cold evening in Denver (remember, Peyton lost to Baltimore there two Januarys ago) or a trip to New England (he loses there quite often), it's not promising.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 11-5 (Home 6-2; Road 5-3)
Point Differential: +68
The Steelers have rebounded nicely from a perfectly mediocre 2013 season as well as a perfectly mediocre 3-3 start to the 2014 season.
Against the playoff pack, the Steelers are an impressive 5-1 this year, their only loss coming to Baltimore in Week 2. But in those five wins, they beat Carolina, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Cincinnati (twice) with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. So against the league's best, they've been excellent.
In a somewhat confounding twist, against the league's worst, they've been almost impossibly bad. They lost to the Buccaneers, the worst team in the league. They lost by 21 points to the 7-9 Browns. They lost by a touchdown to the Jets, who were 1-8 at the time. And they lost at home to the Saints, a team that struggles outdoors in cold weather and finished the year under .500.
But Ben Roethlisberger and Co. won't have to worry about playing down to any competition in January, and the experience of the quarterback gives them an edge over most of the teams remaining on this list. The major snag could come in the form of Le'Veon Bell being unable to play due to his knee injury, but even without Bell, the Steelers should be able to handle the Ravens in the wild-card round.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 10-5-1 (Home 5-2-1; Road 5-3)
Point Differential: +21
It should be noted that the drop-off from the top half to the bottom half of this list is significant. Each team listed from this point forward has at least one flaw that is likely to prove fatal sooner rather than later.
The AFC North runners-up probably would not be listed quite this high on the list if not for that Week 16 win over the Broncos. It was that victory which seemed to exorcise the demons that have plagued the Bengals in prime-time, national TV games.
Granted, it didn't carry over into Week 17 in Pittsburgh, but the Bengals nevertheless enter the postseason as a perfectly average team. They rank 15th in both yards gained and points scored, and they rank 22nd in yards allowed and 12th in points allowed. With 26 giveaways and 26 takeaways, they have a turnover ratio of zero, putting them in a tie for 16th.
They're middle of the pack in nearly every way imaginable. They won't be favored in any games during these playoffs, but it wouldn't be shocking to see them come away with a win or two.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 11-5 (Home 7-1; Road 4-4)
Point Differential: +11
Through most of the season, the Cardinals figured to be the best the NFC had to offer. But Carson Palmer's injury in Week 10 sent an 8-1 team into a tailspin. After outscoring opponents by 53 points through those 10 weeks, the Cardinals finished the season 3-4, outscored by 42 points and lacking any offense whatsoever. They've averaged 12 points per game during that time.
Yet the defense can still cause some headaches, finishing the year ranked fifth in the NFL at 18.7 points per game. It's not inconceivable to picture the Cardinals being able to hold their own and keep any playoff game close through three and a half quarters. Whether they have enough to make a play or two in the final minutes to win the game is questionable, but stranger things have happened in the NFL.
9. Detroit Lions
Record: 11-5 (Home 7-1; Road 4-4)
Point Differential: +39
For the Lions, what kills them could be the fact that they'll be without Ndamukong Suh against the Cowboys. Suh led the Lions in sacks, accounting for 8.5 of the team's 42. The Lions still have some disruptive forces who can get to the quarterback in Ziggy Ansah, George Johnson and Jason Jones, yet Suh is such an integral part of the defensive line that his absence is sure to have a ripple effect on the defense. And it's all thanks to Suh's decision to step on Aaron Rodgers and put all the pressure from his 300-pound frame on the quarterback's leg.
UPDATE: Since these rankings were released, Ndamukong Suh won his appeal. he will be eligible to play. That certainly helps and would probably have made enough of a difference to move them up a spot.
Offensively, the Lions have no running game, which is a difficult element to be lacking in January. And in terms of a head coach inspiring confidence, Jim Caldwell does not qualify. When it comes to, say, making a quick decision to go for it on fourth down, or whether it's a good idea to throw the challenge flag, chances are Caldwell will make the wrong choice and take too long while making it.
10. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 10-6 (Home 6-2; Road 4-4)
Point Differential: +107
The Ravens employ the same head coach and quarterback that won a Super Bowl just two years ago, so a ranking at the 10 spot may seem a bit low.
But the 2014 edition of the Ravens are a distant cry from the team that's been a menace to opponents in recent years. Quite simply, they've proven capable of beating up on bad teams and not much else. Against teams with records better than .500, they finished the year with a 1-6 record. That lone win came against Pittsburgh all the way back in Week 2, so it hardly counts as anything for the Ravens to hang their hat on as they enter the postseason.
If the Ravens had the opportunity to play the Jaguars, Titans or Buccaneers this January, things would be looking up for them. Unfortunately, those days are over.
11. Carolina Panthers
Record: 7-8-1 (Home 4-4; Road 3-4-1)
Point Differential: -35
A playoff team only through the process of elimination, the Panthers emerged as the best team from the league's worst division. They finished the year on a four-game winning streak against teams with a combined record of 22-42 to make the playoffs. They beat Detroit in Week 2, but since then they've gone 0-4-1 against the teams that eventually made the playoffs.
They get a home game, and it's against the quarterback-less Cardinals, so it's not difficult to envision them advancing to the divisional round. It is hard to imagine them getting any further.
12. Indianapolis Colts
Record: 11-5 (Home 6-2; Road 5-3)
Point Differential: +89
The NFC South generated most of the attention for being the league's worst division this year, but the AFC South was not far behind.
The Colts benefited greatly from playing in a division with the 2-14 Jaguars and 3-13 Titans. They went 3-5 against teams better than .500, getting blown out at home by New England (22 points) as well as at Dallas (35 points in Week 16). They also gave up 51 points, 639 yards and six passing touchdowns in their trip to Pittsburgh.
Working in the Colts' favor is their 27-0 win over the Bengals, who happen to be their wild-card round opponent. But that win came long ago in the middle of October and won't mean all that much when the ball is kicked this weekend.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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