Hurley's Picks: Bengals should probably have neutral site for Bills game
BOSTON -- In the immediate wake of that shocking scene in Cincinnati a few weeks ago, there didn't appear to be an easy or obviously fair route for the NFL to take in figuring things out. And for as long as Damar Hamlin was in the hospital with an uncertain status, none of it really mattered.
Yet after Hamlin improved and it became clear he was making a rapid recovery, the NFL sought to sort things out. And that group -- the owners and Roger Goodell -- eventually settled on a potential Chiefs-Bills AFC title game being held at a neutral site. The Bills lost their spot as the No. 1 seed as a result of their canceled game, but the Chiefs would only be getting half of the benefits of the top seed by getting a first-round bye.
That's all well and good ... but what about the Bengals?
The Bengals also were part of that canceled game, which cost them their chance to leapfrog the Bills in the standings. A win over Buffalo would have placed this weekend's divisional round matchup in Cincinnati. A loss, and it'd be in Buffalo. (Assuming Week 18 played out the way that it did, of course.)
The Bengals led the game 7-3 when it was halted. It's impossible for anyone to know who would have won that game. But it could have been the Bengals just as easily as it could have been the Bills.
So why do the Bills get the advantage that comes with playing at home this week? Or, considering the NFL took steps to ensure that the Bills wouldn't have to play a true road game in the conference championship after losing their shot to secure the No. 1 seed, why didn't the league take similar steps for the Bengals in the divisional round?
The obvious answer would be that the NFL's contingencies and adjustments had to stop at some point, and finding a location for the AFC title game proved to be challenging in its own right. Finding a home for a divisional round game, with less time to secure a stadium and prepare to sell tickets and everything that would come with it, would have been yet another challenge for the league to conquer in a time crunch. (Canton, Ohio, is coincidentally smack dab in the middle of Cincinnati and Buffalo. A little Hall of Fame game action in January would be cool. Probably not enough seats. Just spitballing here.)
Logistically, it would have been difficult.
But if the end game was to be fair to all teams affected by the cancellation, the league fell well short of that goal, with Cincinnati getting the short end of the stick. Buffalo potentially gained a major advantage for this particular matchup, a game which seemed to have been an inevitability dating back to December. For that, the NFL doesn't really have a proper answer.
Nevertheless, they play on.
Maybe it'll help the Bengals in the long run, if it gives them a rallying cry as they head into Buffalo.
(Home team in CAPS; Friday lines)
KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Jacksonville
This is a great line. Just a superb line. Kudos to you, line makers. You've really outdone yourself this time.
It's great because the Jaguars lost eight games this year. One was an anomaly, a 26-point blowout loss to the Lions. The other seven? They came by an average of 6.9 points. And only one of them was by more than 8.5 points.
The twist there is that the one loss in question came ... in Kansas City, where the Chiefs beat the Jags by 10.
Brilliant line.
Clearly, the Jaguars tend to keep things close no matter what. So I have plenty of pause with the pick. But ultimately, the Jaguars will find when they're not going against arguably the greatest choking organization in the NFL, life in the postseason is very difficult.
Credit to the 2022 Jags for producing this all-time highlight, though:
For that, we remain grateful.
New York Giants (+7.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Oh, brother. They've really done it to me now.
In keeping with the theme of those in charge of these lines, this one feels personal. Clearly, someone who frequently reads this column made sure that this line was excruciating.
Because on a pure talent level, 7.5 points just isn't enough. The Eagles were viciously potent this season, with the No. 3 offense in the league. They scored 29 or more points eight times this season, and they topped 40 twice. And their highest output of the season ... came against the Giants, when Philly dropped 48 points with 437 yards of offense.
Philly's probably going to do that again, if we're being frank.
But -- fair or foul, wise or unwise -- I've rolled with the Giants for so many consecutive months now that I can't quit. I cannot. This team is now 14-4 against the spread. FOURTEEN-AND-FLIPPING-FOUR against the spread! And, what? I'm supposed to throw them in the trash? (The Giants are also 3-1 against the spread when they're given a touchdown or more. The issue, again, is that the one loss came against the Eagles.)
No. Now's the time for loyalty. And just like they did in the Backup Bowl in Week 18, I'll be counting on the Giants to slide right into the back door and finish this year with one of the best and certainly the least likely ATS record I've ever seen.
Cincinnati (+5.5) over BUFFALO
It gets talked about a lot. But still -- are we underplaying the whirlwind that the Bills have been living in for the past two months? From the snowstorm that moved their game to Detroit, to heading back to Detroit on a short week days later, to three prime-time games in five weeks, to the terrifying night in Cincinnati and all of the uncertainty that came with it, to the fight to stay atop the AFC, to the Super Bowl expectations that have hung over their heads since last February ... it's a lot!
And I'm not here to say that it's finally going to catch up to them and end their season prematurely. I'm not ready to go that far. But it all could explain why they had so much trouble against a Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins team last week. And it provides good reason to think this will be a tooth-and-nail affair in Orchard Park.
Throw in the aforementioned added edge that the Bengals might gain from feeling slighted by the NFL, and it's a recipe for trouble. As a New England-based human being, I can attest that there is nothing more dangerous than a locker room full of players who genuinely believe "nobody believes in us" and/or "nobody wants us to win." The Bengals might have both. And a reigning AFC champion doesn't usually have that kind of luxury.
The Bills have, by and large, been doing just enough to put teams away and live on for another week. Eventually they'll try to fire up those afterburners after a long layoff. But the Bengals will make that very difficult for them on Sunday.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Dallas
Ah. Easiest pick of the week. Don't mind if I do.
Last week: 4-2
Regular season: Who's asking? Don't worry about it. (125-138-8)
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
