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Keller @ Large: How To Pick A Winner

BOSTON (CBS) - You know me, I don't like to brag.

But for someone who is just a fan like everyone else, I do have a pretty decent record of predicting the outcome of big Patriots games, including picking the Pats to win the 2001 Super Bowl by a field goal, which they did, and calling last week's playoff game for the Pats by seven, right on the nose.

I can sense what you're thinking – how does he do it?

Believe me, there is no magic involved, just common sense.

So before I make my dead-solid-lock pick for this Sunday's AFC championship game, here is my logic for it:

First, Denver may be a wonderful city, but it is not in Massachusetts. Call me parochial, but I prefer to pick winners that play in my beloved home state.

That helps narrow down the choice.

Second, let's face it, in spite of the massive media coverage of the team's every move, we have absolutely no idea what is going on behind closed doors in Belichick world.

Exhibit A: the story late last week that Rob Gronkowski was suffering from a flare-up of his knee injury and a sore back. Then he goes out and romps like a starving bear at a picnic.

Exhibit B: the uncertainty over how well a supposedly-rusty Julian Edelman would perform after weeks of recovery from an injury.

Just a wild guess, but I suspect Edelman has been tearing it up in practice for weeks, in total secrecy.

So, using this highly scientific combination of homerism, speculation and ignorance, I have come to the conclusion that the Pats will dine on horsemeat, 27-to-10.

No brag; just fact.

Listen to Jon's commentary:

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