More Snow Talk...
Light showers will be passing through overnight and through the majority of tomorrow but the main course of heavy rain will hold off until tomorrow evening when the front with a wave of low pressure powered by a potent negatively tilted shortwave pivot through. The shortwave will provide intense lift which will lead to a period of heavy rain and downpours about 4 hours long. Even though the window for heavy rain will be short most towns will pick up around 1". Along with the rain, a 60+kt low level jet will attempt to mix down to the surface. A low level inversion is apparent on NAM FOUS and BUFKIT soundings so most of the area should avoid damaging wind gusts but the coast and higher elevation will be most susceptible for a gust to 50mph tomorrow evening when the heavy rain is coming down. Following the frontal passage, just after midnight, the flood gates will open up for cold air to pour in...it will take over 24 hours to really feel the full brunt of the trailing cold airmass but Friday through the weekend will feature below average temps. We are also eyeing POTENTIAL storminess for early next week. Right now the atmosphere shows the best baroclinic zone or area for surface low pressure development to remain offshore. But this will have to be monitored closely. Regardless, an upper level trough will be sitting right over creating an unstable atmosphere...conducive for snow shower / flurry development during that timeframe.
If you haven't already, I urge you to scroll down on the weather blog homepage and read Barry's Winter Outlook...a tremendous read! Consensus on the upcoming Winter seems to be bouts of cold and bouts of warm...mixing storms...and snowfall near average...some a little less, some a little more. Like Barry, I am in the camp of a little more...52". My thoughts are that we will see a more active pattern and northern stream...more "Clippers" or "Hookers" that redevelop in our coastal waters. Clearly a La Nina pattern isn't conducive to open up the Gulf or for blockbuster bombs to come up the East Coast but this more active scenario should make up for that. These past few weeks may be a hint of what the majority of the Winter will look like with parent lows rolling up to our west but there has been that key ingredient of redevelopment/cyclogenesis in and around New England...so far it has been occurring directly over us which allows for an influx of warmth...not conducive for snow but all we need is for this to shift a little farther south and NAO blocking may be the wildcard that provides it...at least that's what I'm betting on. Lastly, a few of you have observed and noted the warmer than normal ocean water temps and that would prohibit a snowier than average Winter but what if it actually promotes a snowier scenario? That warmer water may create an even greater temperature range, enhancing the baroclinic zone thus, perhaps, blowing up a typical 1-3" "Clipper" low into a 2-4" or 3-6 incher...say we get 8 of those...that's about 1 every other week (seems reasonable) that gets us close to 30" then all we need is 2-3 bigger ones (6-12"+)...huh, the math works.
Anyhow, happy Winter every one...personally not my favorite time of the year but even I am looking forward to some snow! Let it fly!
Lastly, I think I remember some of you talking about the Southern New England Storm Conference this weekend...I'll be there with the rest of the BZ team...come over and say hi, I'd love to meet you!
