Mild Stretch Of Weather...But Beware Of The Onshore Wind
Near record warmth is likely today with a big upper level ridge along the east coast providing sunshine with highs climbing into the 60's nearing 70. High pressure parked south of New England is wrapping in lighter SW winds today. Most records are in the upper 60's and many records will be in jeopardy of being broken or tied by this afternoon. An afternoon sea breeze will kick in with a light onshore SE wind by the later afternoon which will put a halt on any warming along the coast...in fact, temps may cool back down into the 50's by the end of the day at our beaches, while temps will hold very mild inland through sunset. Temps will run about 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year. The elevated risk for brush fires continues with these warm dry conditions, but with less wind today, the risk is not as bad. Monday will be the best day of the week...as there are a few weak weather systems to track which will bring clouds at times...as well as the cooling sea breezes which can be spoilers to any spring warm ups in New England with cool winds off the cool water.
A cut off low in th Northern plains is lifting into the Great Lakes. Warm air is surging into the northeast ahead of this front. High Clouds will be advancing ahead of this front this afternoon with filtered sunshine. Clouds will thicken tonight with lows holding in the 40's. A few showers may start to enter into SNE after midnight along with a warm front. This warm front will lift north of the Pike Tuesday, bring much of SNE into the warm sector, with NNE being a bit cooler. Still, Tuesday will have abundant cloud cover in the morning, with low clouds eroding and breaking to some partial sun by afternoon. SW winds and any sun will spike temps right back into the 60's. Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday, simply because of more clouds. A cold front will pass through Tuesday night which may trigger an isolated late day shower or thunderstorm.
By Wednesday, cooler air will be on the move with NW winds behind the front. Sunshine in the morning will fade with building cumulus in the afternoon. A cool pool of air aloft will push through with clouds and a chance of a late day shower into the evening. A low will be crossing through the region and off the coast by the later part of the day and begin to wrap in cooler onshore NE winds. Highs will be in the 50's to near 60.
This time of year any wind off the ocean with water temps in the lwr 40's can mean much cooler temps especially at the coast. That will be the case for the end of the week heading into the weekend. Ridging and Heights will be on the rise again Thursday to Friday with increasing sunshine. But NE winds Thursday will keep temps in the mid 50's with even some lingering clouds right at the coast.
Winds will be shifting to SW on Friday, so I expect temps to climb back into the lwr-mid 60's before another front pushes through Friday night. As this front pushes through, a few showers will be possible. Models are showing a wave riding on this front which could keep the showers and rain going into Saturday on St. Patrick's day. Cool NE winds will again bring temps back into the lwr to mid 50's with drizzle into the afternoon. Sunday will be improved with increasing sun and light variable winds...
A shift back to the warming SW winds and upper level ridge on the east coast will take hold into the the start of the week after. So in summary...temps are going to remain above normal for quite sometime...likely for the rest of the month. Average highs are in the mid 40's...while we will be spending many many days ahead in the 50's and 60's...and even a few 70's if we are lucky and can keep the onshore winds away long enough. It is not a perfect warm up....but it will be enough.
