Memorial Day Weekend Forecast: One Bump In The Road?
BOSTON (CBS) - In the weather office we call it "Murphy's Law." Inevitably, for each and every long holiday weekend, something in the atmosphere complicates the forecast. This Memorial Day Weekend unfortunately will be no different.
The setup goes like this: We have a large area of high pressure hanging around off the East Coast (it is already there now actually). This is responsible for the warmer than normal and somewhat humid air mass we are currently experiencing. This feature is going to stick around right through the weekend. Sounds like an easy forecast right? Not exactly.
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A cold front is going to approach New England late Friday and slow to a crawl as it passes through on Saturday. There likely won't be much weather associated with it at first. You may notice the air getting a bit less humid during the day on Saturday, but that is about it. Problem is that front doesn't keep moving. It is going to stall somewhere near or just south of Southern New England and stay there for several days. This will turn into a weather boundary or sorts, separating a warm and very humid air mass to the south and a somewhat cooler and drier air mass to the north. And where there are weather boundaries, unsettled weather typically exists.
The difficulty will be timing the ripples along this boundary and also tracking the subtle movements of the weather front as it wavers north and south. Here is our best attempt at timing the ripples and movements for this holiday weekend:
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Friday: Hazy sunshine, warm and humid, well into the 70s inland, bit cooler along the coast…cold front approaches form the west, a few late day showers or storms possible, mainly well inland.
Saturday: The cold front passes through, weakens and settles to our south late in the day…the air becomes less humid but stays very warm. Right now Saturday looks to be the warmest and driest day of the weekend, temps well into the 80s, with a very low shower risk.
Sunday: With the weather boundary to our south, the air will be somewhat cooler and drier, although temperatures will stay above normal inland (70s)…temps will be cooler at the coast due to a light onshore wind. The boundary will likely become active during Sunday, meaning there will be an increased threat of showers or thunderstorms, especially in far Southern New England. Best chance of completely dry weather would be in Central and Northern New England on Sunday.
Monday (Memorial Day): Our weather boundary is going to make a northward move at some point on Monday of Tuesday of next week. This would bring the warmer and more humid air back into our area as well as an increased risk of showers and storms. Hard to predict the timing on this northward shift but for now we have to put some scattered showers/storms in the forecast for Monday just in case. Again, the farther north you are in New England the best chance of keeping dry. Temperatures on Monday should remain at least in the 70s with the potential of being warmer depending upon the position of our friendly front.
Confused? Don't be…it is a challenging forecast but the bottom line is this…no day is expected to be a washout, temperatures will be warmer than normal and warmest away from the coast each day and finally, like a classic summer weekend, there will be daily threats (especially Sunday and Monday) of some scattered storms.
Enjoy your weekend!
