Manning To Miami Would Be Worst-Case Scenario For Patriots
BOSTON (CBS) -- After the expected-but-nonetheless surprising release of Peyton Manning on Wednesday, the football world was left with one burning question: Where will Peyton go?
The answer could take a while to come, but whether it's this week, this month or late April, the Patriots better hope it's not Miami.
Granted, it wouldn't exactly be doomsday for Bill Belichick if Manning becomes a Dolphin, but as it relates to the Patriots, South Florida would be the landing spot that has the most impact.
Would Manning singlehandedly take over the Dolphins and turn them from a 6-10 team to a Super Bowl contender? Well, no, but he'd definitely make them a lot more dangerous.
Consider that the best defense in the AFC East in terms of points allowed was not the chest-thumping Jets, and it was not the 13-3 Patriots. It was the Dolphins, whose 313 points allowed ranked fifth in the entire AFC. The defense may not be the league's best, but it's certainly good enough to win more than six games in a season.
The problem, obviously, was with the offense. The Dolphins scored just 20.6 per game, good enough for last in the AFC East and 20th in the NFL. It clearly wasn't an awful unit, but it was one that was missing that one key ingredient to winning games (my apologies to Matt Moore and his immediate family). That shortcoming was evident in their losing five games by three points or fewer, and another two games by 10 points. A more potent offense, and that 6-10 record can rather easily transform into a 10-6 record or better.
The problem, for sure, is not a lack of talent. Brandon Marshall may be behind only Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson in terms of pure talent at the receiver position. Davone Bess looks like the next Wes Welker in the making. Brian Hartline and Anthony Fassano both are steady targets, and Reggie Bush is a dangerous option out of the backfield. It's a receiving corps that can stack up with most across the league, and the addition of one more contributor -- Reggie Wayne, perhaps? -- and a prime-time quarterback (again, sorry, Matt Moore), it would be a force too powerful to ignore.
Of course, that's dependent on two rather significant factors. One, Manning has to want to play in Miami. We know he owns a home in Miami, and we're sure the nice weather wouldn't be the worst thing for a quarterback who's played all of his home games indoors, but does he want to risk joining a team that has made the playoffs just once since 2002?
The second factor is that we still don't know if Manning will be able to play professional football ever again. That's the part that's gotten somewhat lost in the commotion of Wednesday -- we don't know if he can throw a football, let alone absorb a hit from a blitzing 240-pound linebacker. He said Wednesday that he's progressing well and feels "closer and closer" to being himself, but he's not there yet. And really, he doesn't know if he ever will feel like himself again. How could he? He'll be 36 by the end of the month, and he's the recipient of multiple neck surgeries in a little more than a year.
That factor will definitely play a role in Manning's decision to choose a landing spot, making the offensive line of any prospective bidders a key point of consideration. You could make the case that offensive line -- more than the quality of receivers or coaches or weather -- will be the biggest factor. For the Dolphins, that may be a killer. The Dolphins allowed 52 sacks last year, third-most in the entire NFL. (It's noteworthy that the Cardinals, another supposed possibility for Manning, finished worse with 54 sacks allowed.) Some of that is most certainly on the quarterback as much as it is the line, and when you take into account Manning's ability to call hot routes at the line to beat blitzes and get rid of the ball quicker, that number is sure to improve simply with his presence. Still, joining a team that does such a poor job of protecting the quarterback is a risk Manning may not want to take.
From a Patriots perspective, the thought has to be that Manning can still play at a Manning level. The thought of him joining the division at all will affect their offseason, but if it were the Jets over the Dolphins, it likely wouldn't be as dangerous. For one, the new offensive coordinator is Tony Sparano, the mastermind behind that inept Miami offense. For two, it's a locker room already very much divided, with Santonio Holmes the complete opposite of receivers with whom Manning's worked well in the past (Wayne, Marvin Harrison, etc.).
Manning is perhaps the most coveted free agent in football history, and maybe even sports history. He can choose his destination, the Patriots have to believe it's hard to believe he'd pick somewhere as dysfunctional as the Jets.
If he does end up picking the Dolphins -- and, naturally, the Dolphins offer the necessary sum of cash to get it done -- it won't be the end of the world for Tom Brady and Co. They'll still be favorites to win the division, as they are every year, and they'll still probably do it. Manning in Miami, though, would make that a great deal more difficult.
Follow Michael Hurley on Twitter @michaelfhurley
