Late Week Storm Could Bring Snow!
All-aboard...that's what most major models did over the last 24 hours indicating a major Nor'easter for Friday! This doesn't mean we will take a direct hit but the chances are growing. Keep in mind that to get a sizable snowstorm this late in the season sooooo much has to pan out and while a lot is pointing to that occurring, there has and will continue to be some wiggling among the various models so pin-pointing and pinning down the variables is simply too early.
A cold pool of air in the middle atmosphere and favorable a jet location will give rise to a large and intensifying coastal storm Thursday night through Friday...that we know. What we don't know is the final track and precip type. I still like a colder solution due to the downstream blocking. But I'm not so keen on the location of high pressure to our north...I'd like to see it a little farther to the west...in fact, the 18Z run of the GFS actually shifts the high even father east creating more of an easterly or even southeasterly surface wind...way too warm! But like I said, I like a colder solution...how much colder is the question. If the current track holds, elevated areas would get walloped with heavy wet snow and power outages could be a big problem. Interior New England would also see a lot of snow with similar problems likely to occur. Closer to the coast and in the Boston Metro area it is a much tougher call. Boundary layer temps are going to have a tough time getting below 32...it's not like there is going to be an arctic airmass to tap from the north, this thing will have to manufacture its own cold...possible, but hard this time of year. In fact, even with a NNE or NE ageostrophic wind it's not like we'd be advecting arctic air...it would be marginally cold enough, maybe even too mild if it truly is NE with water temps around 40.
While I'd like to say that in the next 24 hours we'll have the answers, the reality is that models will be flipping around still and even though I prefer the colder track pinpointing snow and amounts is still too early.
