Keller @ Large: Could New Hampshire lose its first-in-the-nation primary status?
CONCORD, N.H. – Just three weeks after the election, a new political fight is brewing. And it could put an end to New Hampshire's long tradition of hosting the nation's first presidential primary.
New Hampshire state law requires it to be first. But some are calling for a more diverse state to take the primary leadoff spot.
It's been more than 40 years since a contested Democratic primary winner in New Hampshire went on to win the White House. And if there was anything left of New Hampshire's image as a predictor of Democratic success, it was shattered last time around when Joe Biden finished a dismal fifth and fled for South Carolina before the votes were even counted.
"There's a lot of scrutiny on Iowa and New Hampshire," Boston attorney Jim Roosevelt, co-chair of the party committee reviewing the primary schedule. "The fact that the winner of the Democratic caucuses in Iowa almost never goes on to become president makes a difference, the fact that President Biden did not win New Hampshire makes a difference."
And New Hampshire's lack of racial diversity is a tough sell these days to a party that relies on minority support.
"The question of diversity seems to become more and more pressing to Democratic Party elites as that diverse base becomes more important to winning," UNH political science Prof. Dante Scala said.
Big, diverse states like Michigan and Minnesota hope to take over New Hampshire's place in line. But state Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley said "New Hampshire has a very strong argument" in part because there's no retail politics like New Hampshire retail politics.
"In New Hampshire the people of color actually get to be in the living room and have a one-on-one conversation with the candidate. That's not gonna happen in these gigantic states," he said.
And for the president, Buckley has some oh-so-friendly advice: "Knowing that he will need New Hampshire in November of 2024, he'll side with us."
So will New Hampshire keep its status?
I think it's likely they will. Displacing the inept Iowa caucuses should satisfy critics of the status quo for now. And unlike reliably-red Iowa, New Hampshire is a swing state that Democrats will need to win in two years.
But even if the party does displace New Hampshire, there will still be a primary held, even if it elects no delegates to the convention. And it'll be fascinating to see if the pols and the media still take it as seriously.
