Keller @ Large: As election nears, economy and inflation become bigger issues than abortion
BOSTON -- There are just three weeks to go before the midterm elections, a time when candidates and parties begin to make their closing arguments. An event Tuesday in Washington featuring President Biden was a reminder of the political dilemma facing the party in power.
"I'm asking the American people to remember how you felt the day the extreme Dobbs decision came down and Roe was overturned after 50 years," he said at a rally of abortion-rights supporters.
Why was the president focusing on abortion rights as the campaign enters its final stretch?
Think back to the impact the overturning of Roe v. Wade was having on the CBS Battleground poll in late August. The GOP lead in the generic congressional polling was shrinking back then "largely because of the abortion issues, and that speaks to what is this campaign about," said CBS pollster Anthony Salvanto.
The backlash burned hot and lit a fire under Democratic campaigns. But fast forward eight weeks, and it's a different story.
Reviewing mid-October polling numbers, Salvanto was asked what happened to Democratic momentum that now appears stalled at best. "It ran into this: worsening views of the economy," he said.
And other polls are confirming CBS's findings. A new Siena College/New York Times survey finds the economy and inflation are now far outpacing abortion as the problem voters rank most important, even among women.
No wonder GOP attack ads across the country are laser-focused on economic woes. "Just look what Maggie Hassan and Joe Biden have done to us," says the narrator of a current Mitch McConnell PAC ad. "Higher heating costs as temperatures drop."
Border issues and taxes juice up the Republicans. Abortion rights and threats to democracy have animated the Democratic base. But with the cost of living looming as the dominant closing issue, maximizing base turnout becomes a necessity.
No wonder Biden was exhorting his audience today to "vote, vote, vote!"
And consider this: Democrats argue that soaring inflation has been caused by supply issues and global factors like the invasion of Ukraine. And according to the latest CBS poll voters agree, with solid majorities blaming this mess on those issues. But 47% also blame Democratic policies. Biden's economic moves are the second-most-cited reason for high gas prices. And only 32% believe the administration is doing all it can to fight inflation.
If swing voters cast their votes with those beliefs top of mind, the Democrats are in trouble.
