Irene Gets Closer...
The first rain bands out ahead of Irene have arrived and they mean business. Torrential downpours have caused flooded streets, parking lots and even some basements and the storm is still 500 miles away from us! One of our most trusted weather watchers just called from Natick, Dick Whalen, and he tallied 1.53" of rain in 30 minutes and 2.1" of rain in an hour and a half. This much rain is going to compound the power outage problem anticipated tomorrow...saturated ground is loosening tree root systems and many will likely get uprooted tomorrow leading power outages...big concern!
Watch Todd's forecast
Overall, however, our forecast hasn't changed much. We are still expecting a weak hurricane making landfall in Western Long Island tomorrow morning and then traveling up through Western and Central New England...decaying into a Tropical Storm.
Even though Irene will be a tropical storm as she's lumbering through New England, she will still be capable of Hurricane force wind gusts...most susceptible locals will be in SE Mass and also mountain and hilltops in Central MA. Elsewhere we are expecting 40-60mph gusts perhaps slightly higher. Interestingly, while the rain will taper off tomorrow afternoon (and maybe pretty early) the wind will stay strong through midnight. In fact, some of the stronger gusts can be expected after the storm goes by tomorrow evening when the winds swing around and have a westerly component to them...downsloping and drier, more dense air to mix down some of the stronger winds aloft. So this will be a long, drawn out wind event...from mid-morning to about midnight...again further weakening trees.
Fresh water flooding is a concern but not that high on my list in Eastern MA...it's more likely that we see street and parking lots flood out than rivers and streams...all guidance points to 5+" of rain before we have to worry about them. However, in Western NE, moderate if not some major flooding will occur on Rivers thanks to 5+ inches expected from the left side of Irene.
Storm surge will be a big player on the South Coast too...we still expect a 4-8 ft surge tomorrow afternoon and evening...flooding of shore roads, marinas and coastal neighborhoods is practically a certainty.
