Hurley's Picks: Peyton Manning Will End Jets' Season, Loser Jim Schwartz Due For Karmic Payback
BOSTON (CBS) -- The sports world, more than any other realm of life, is littered with bad cliches. Guys are always giving 110 percent -- only after taking things one game at a time. Players focus only on what they can control, especially when they have their backs up against the wall, facing a must-win. They know that defense wins championships, and whether that requires a baseball player to put an inside-out swing on a fastball or a football player to overcome adversity, everybody knows that they're playing a game of inches.
At the end of the day ... there are a lot of cliches.
The thing with all of them, though, is that at one point they were borne from some sort of truth or reality. And with that in mind, there's a new cliche that's taking the football world by storm: "With all of the new rules limiting contact in practices and training camps, teams are now basically treating September like the preseason."
I don't like it one bit. Nope. No I do not.
Part of what makes the NFL so exceptional is that there is no time for nonsense in the season. It starts in September, it ends in late December/early January, and every single moment is crucial. There's no time to mess around. It's why most of us hated the idea of the 18-game season, and it's why we tune in to every game all season long like psychopaths.
And now you've got every professional football analyst under the sun repeating the same line: "Teams treat September like the preseason." Egads!
I'm not saying they're wrong. They've very obviously been correct. The Patriots have used five different offensive line combinations through five weeks and used the first four weeks to let Darrelle Revis get in game shape before actually utilizing him the right way. After hurtling through last year's regular season at 100 mph, Peyton Manning's Broncos seem content to just roll along with the cruise control on at 55. The Saints seem unaware that their games count toward the standings. The Bills are in first place. I think Tampa Bay sent a practice squad to Atlanta for that one Thursday night game.
It stinks -- stinks, I tell you!
But if that's the bad news, then the good news is that we're progressing into October, so Preseason, Part Deux is officially over, and it's time to see what teams are really made of.
(That was a cliche. Did you get it? Do I have to spell everything out for you??)
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
Indianapolis (-3) over HOUSTON
Everybody keeps complaining about the Thursday night games and how they haven't been competitive, how it's a blowout every week and it's over by halftime.
Well, duh.
I mean, for one, it's the NFL, and blowouts happen. You're just not often stuck watching them because there are typically other games going on. But to be sure, there are plenty of blowouts on Sunday nights and Monday nights. The difference with Thursday nights is that at least one team typically looks like garbage, because three days is not enough to recover from the last game or prepare for the next game. It's brutal.
Yet as previously mentioned, we're all psychopaths, so we will watch.
In this one, I just can't trust Houston's offense. They've been outgained in all five of their games this year, and if it weren't for J.J. Watt (and Smash Mouth's inspiration in Week 1), they'd probably be 0-5. The offense is that bad. Given a short week to prepare, I don't anticipate Ryan Fitzpatrick (61-for-96, 711 yards, 2 TDs, 6 INTs, 1 Stupid Speech in his last three games) to unveil any fancy new wrinkles that make me think otherwise.
TENNESSEE (-6) over Jacksonville
Holy smokes! The team coming off a week in which they allowed 26 unanswered points while losing to Cleveland matched up against the team coming off another week of being the pathetic Jacksonville Jaguars. My goodness. The viewing of this game is NSFW and is not recommended for children under the age of 13. I feel dirty just thinking about this game.
Baltimore (-3) over TAMPA BAY
Dear Buccaneers,
Please stop covering spreads. You're screwing everything up for me.
Thank you.
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "The stench remains [from Tampa's blowout loss in Atlanta], even with that win over Pittsburgh."
Note: The Bucs damn near won the game in New Orleans. Who can really figure out the Bucs? Even the Bucs can't figure out the Bucs. The Bucs are killing me right now.
Denver (-8) over NEW YORK JETS
Last week in Boston, we got the Jets-Chargers game at 4:25 p.m. on Sunday. It was the single worst display of football of the entire NFL season. The Chargers didn't even do anything particularly great, but they still were able to roll to a 31-0 win. The KC-San Francisco game was taking place at the same time, and it would have made good sense to switch out of the beatdown in Southern California, but the powers that be kept it on the Jets-Chargers game, likely under the belief that we all wanted to see Mike Vick play quarterback.
No! No! God, no!
I have seen enough of Michael Vick playing quarterback in my lifetime. I do not ever need to see Michael Vick play quarterback again.
As captivating as Mike Vick was in going 8-for-19 for 47 electrifying yards, the Jets could track down Tupac Shakur and take him out of hiding to start him at quarterback, and I still would not be intrigued to watch a Jets game. (OK, that's a lie. I'd watch a couple of series.)
This line could be 25 and I'd still roll with Denver. This will be the final nail in the coffin of the 2014 Jets. Let's move on.
RQFLWP: "The Jets are the team that just hangs around enough without actually winning, so provided they can avoid the urge to put in Michael Vick (that would be an unmitigated disaster), I think they can pull off losing by six points in San Diego. 'The 2014 New York Jets: Good enough to lose by six points!' Hey, that's got a nice ring to it.
Note: Shame on me for believing the Jets were good enough to only lose by a little bit. Seriously, shame on me.
New England (-3) over BUFFALO
Oh, Jim Schwartz. You. Freaking. Loser. My God. Jim Schwartz, the man who inherited an 0-16 team and had the lowest expectations of all time placed upon him yet still managed to underwhelm by going 29-51 -- twenty-nine and fifty-one -- while leading the least disciplined, dumbest team in the entire NFL, asking his players to carry him off the field for beating his former team. As if he was wrongly dismissed by a Lions franchise that gave him half a decade to figure it out. As if he really showed them that they were wrong to fire his ass after 4-12 and 7-9 seasons. As if Alex Henery didn't perform like the town drunk at 2 a.m., thereby handing the win to Buffalo. As if he is some sort of champion.
Oh, Jim Schwartz. You are a loser.
So I'm picking New England, and I can say it's because I liked the way they turned it around last week and looked like a real, live capable NFL team. But really this pick is based entirely on the fact that Jim Schwartz is a loser.
RQFLWP: "Imagine being a decision-maker in Buffalo and being in the room when a colleague uttered the words, 'Inserting Kyle Orton at quarterback is what we need to save our season.' How do you not hand in your resignation right there on the spot?"
Note: Granted, Orton didn't exactly light it up (30-for-43, 308 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks), and yeah, the Bills only won because Alex Henery kicks like the town drunk at 3 a.m., but the fact remains: That Dave Grohl-looking dude won the game and I was wrong.
MINNESOTA (+2) over Detroit
All I know is this: The Vikings have played well just twice this season. Once was against the lowly Rams with Adrian Peterson in the lineup, and the other time was Teddy Bridgewater's only game. All aboard the Bridgewater Express!
Carolina (+7) over CINCINNATI
Is this line a typo? I checked five different places just to make sure. Whatever you say, oddsmakers. Whatever you guys say.
RQFLWP: "The fact that the [Cincinnati-New England] line is only one point might be the steal of the entire weekend.
Note: I knew as soon as the camera focused in on Marvin Lewis' face before the opening kickoff that I had made a terrible, terrible mistake. Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton on national TV? I should know better.
CLEVELAND (-2) over Pittsburgh
Consider me all in on the Browns. (This week.)
In Week 3, I wrote, "The Steelers are terrible." Then they went on the road and crushed the Panthers. So I thought to myself, "Hm, self, perhaps you were wrong." Since, the Steelers have lost at home to the Bucs (the Bucs!) and barely scraped by in Jacksonville. So now I say to myself, "Self, you were right, don't ever doubt yourself again."
MIAMI (+3.5) over Green Bay
We're really pushing the limits of "How many road favorites can you take in one week?" And though I initially went with Green Bay here, I had to change my mind.
The Dolphins can win this one with simple ball control. Hand the ball to Knowshon Moreno (hopefully), attack that 32nd-ranked rush defense, don't be afraid to settle for field goals, and you can do it.
(Yes, I realize when I start giving pep talks that I'm talking myself into a pick. But I'm not convinced either of these teams has it figured out. Home dog it is.)
San Diego (-7) over OAKLAND
Oh, what do you know -- another big road favorite. For as much as I struggle to believe I live in a world where the Chargers can rightfully claim to be one of the best three or four teams in the NFL, and for as much as I believe a major flop is in their future ... I just ... can't ... pick the Raiders.
Not only have the Raiders been outscored by 103 points, but they've been outgained by 381 yards. That includes a game in which the Jets gained 244 yards more than them. That's the New York Jets, to be clear. So no, Oakland is officially in "Not Unless They're Getting 45 Points ... And Even Then, You'd Have To Think About It" territory.
Chicago (+3) over ATLANTA
Chicago Bears: Not very good at football.
Atlanta Falcons: Not very good at football.
So ... Bears. Because why not? I defy you to present a stronger argument for either team here. Go ahead. I dare you.
Dallas (+8) over SEATTLE
Gah! Did I really just do that?
OK, so despite my feeling that I'll be regretting this one by the end of the first quarter, the only difference between these two teams this year are reputation. The in-your-face defense of the defending Super Bowl-champion Seahawks surely will roll over the Tony Romo-led laughingstock that is the Dallas Cowboys, right?
Well ... they average almost identical points for and points against (Dallas scores 27 and allows 20.6; Seattle scores 27.5 and allows 20.8), Dallas averages 37 more yards through the air, Seattle averages just seven more yards on the ground, and the Cowboys actually allow fewer passing yards (248) than the vaunted Seattle D (256). Yeah, that's largely due to Dallas' atrocious run defense, which should afford Russell Wilson plenty of room to scramble and break free for 15-yard chunks at a time, but it shouldn't lead to a blowout.
It shouldn't. Right?
ARIZONA (-3.5) over Washington
Nothing takes the shine off an up-and-coming team like Arizona quite like a whooping at the hands of Peyton Manning and Co.
But the Redskins, if you'll pardon my language, stink.
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) over New York Giants
The New York Giants are incredibly stressful to pick. They make you sweat like a wildebeest.
The Philadelphia Eagles are also incredibly stressful to pick. They take 40 minutes to wake up and then make you sweat. And sometimes they fail to cover against the stinking Rams. The stinking Rams!
But Philly only has to cover a field goal, and they have Boyz II Men performing at halftime, so I mean, this one's kind of already over before it starts.
Sorry, Elisha Manning, but your winning streak has come ... to the eeeennnnnddd of the roooo-oooad.
San Francisco (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS
Yes, that would be the sixth road favorite I've picked this week. Six. That's outrageous. But come on ... Rams football.
I believe I can make out OK with all of those road favorites, because last week there were 10 games with spreads of six or more points, and I managed to survive.
Plus, the post-preseason is now over, so theoretically we have some real, actual knowledge about these teams now. Right?
Right. Now let's go out there and give it 110 percent!
Last week: 9-6
Season: 46-30
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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