Holding Course...
Winter at its finest...I have to say that when you get days like this one Winter is actually very enjoyable! The sun angle this late in February is making all the difference...it is so much stronger now than just a few weeks ago and it's really throwing off the models (and me too, but I'm not biting anymore!). Yesterday, numerical model guidance was spitting out highs for today in the 20s...Logan hit 38 at 3:59PM...10 to 15 degrees warmer than the models were forecasting! This is not uncommon and happens during transitions from one season to another so in my opinion it's best to look at 850mb temps and project a high from that during this transition period because model boundary layer temps haven't been even close. All that said, we should soar deep into the 30s again tomorrow with ample sunshine and a slight downsloping wind...some towns may even touch 40!
This warm air will be in place late this week when our next storm approaches from the SW...just like last night, there are two camps...a warmer one and a colder one. Once again it's a battle between the EURO and the GFS, both continue to hold course with the EURO warmer and the GFS colder. With the lack of cold air around New England and a high departing to our east and the next cold high pressure source way back in the Dakotas, a lot would have to fall in place for significant snow to occur. Right now the GFS depicts just that...a lot falling into place...the perfect track and heavy precip...both would promote enough cold for several heavy, wet inches of snow. I just don't buy it right now...downstream blocking will be easing and a trough will be digging in the West...not the East...the odds are just not in favor of a snowmaker at this time.
And maybe not next week either...right now we are looking at a prolific rainmaker early next week capable of some flooding...we'll see.
