Can Patriots find franchise quarterback despite not getting first choice? Let's look at the history

BOSTON -- As of this writing, a mere 71 days separate us from the start of the NFL Draft. That's a casual wait of just 1,700 hours before names finally start coming off the board and the top college players are given their NFL homes. Blink your eyes, and it'll be here before you know it.

Calm your pulses, folks. The draft is pretty much here already.

Agitated sarcasm aside, it is technically NFL Draft season, even if the actual event remains quite a distance away. Eventually, it'll come, and in the meantime, everybody's going to be grinding film and churning out mock drafts and firing off as much. Speculation. As. Humanly. Possible.

In the not-so-long-ago days in New England, we didn't have to pay too much attention to the cottage industry that focuses on the top-of-the-draft hullabaloo. Now, not so much, as that No. 3 overall pick hovers high above Patriots' fans heads as the beacon of hope that the guy can be found right now.

Could they do it? Could they simply identify the franchise-changing quarterback -- whether it's Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels -- and use that No. 3 pick to take him, thus sharply pivoting the direction of the Patriots and guiding them back toward the life of perennial contention? Sure! The change may not be overnight, but the right QB can make that much of a difference.

At the same time -- and this is not to play the role of a Debbie Downer -- could taking the second or third quarterback high in the draft ultimately result in a net loss for the franchise? History shows that the answer is a painful yes.

And now with several minutes shaved off those 1,700 hours of waiting for Roger Goodell to take the stage in Detroit, let's take a stroll down memory lane to see what life has been like for teams picking quarterbacks at the top of the NFL Draft -- and especially for those that don't have first dibs.

1993

Let's take it back to the last time the Patriots picked this high. The year was 1993, and Bill Parcells had to choose between Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer. He was apparently leaning toward Mirer early, but ended up taking Bledsoe with the first overall pick. Good choice.

That left Mirer available for the Seahawks to select at No. 2 overall. He'd play just four seasons in Seattle, throwing 56 interceptions and just 41 touchdowns, before bouncing around to several teams for the rest of his career. Mirer's approximate value (calculated by Pro Football Reference) across his career was 33, compared to Bledsoe's 105.

1994

This year was a case of both of the top two quarterbacks not working out too well, though the second quarterback taken was notably better the first.

Heath Shuler went third overall to Washington, and he ... was bad. Fifteen touchdowns, 33 interceptions, 8-14 record, out of the league after four years.

The second quarterback taken was Trent Dilfer. He was never quite an above-average NFL quarterback, but he stuck around for a long time and won a Super Bowl (in a postseason where he completed 35 total passes).

1995

Steve McNair was drafted third overall by the Oilers, while Kerry Collins went fifth overall to the Panthers. McNair had the better career (a shared MVP with Peyton Manning in 2003, three Pro Bowls), but Collins made a couple of Pro Bowls and threw more touchdowns. Collins, though, never really ended up being a franchise quarterback for any of the six teams he played for. (He held the Giants' starting job the longest, going 35-33 over five years.)

1998

After two years without quarterbacks going high in the draft, the big kahuna came. Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf?

It may seem preposterous in retrospect that there was any debate, but the nation had plenty of voices who believed vociferously that Leaf was worth the No. 1 overall pick. (The recent "30 For 30" on the '97 Heisman race captured the temperature of the football world pretty well.)

As we know, the Colts made the right choice and picked Manning. He went on to throw 539 touchdowns, make 14 Pro Bowls and seven All-pro teams, win five MVPs, deliver a Super Bowl to Indy, and end up in the Hall of Fame.

The Chargers took Ryan Leaf second. He didn't do any of those things. He started 18 games and went 4-14 with 33 interceptions to just 13 touchdowns for San Diego. He was released three years later. (The Chargers, like every team before the Vikings at No. 21, should have taken Randy Moss. Or at least taken Charles Woodson, who went fourth overall.)

Interstingly, another quarterback wasn't taken that year until the 60th overall pick, and the best non-Manning QB was Matt Hasselbeck, who went 187th overall to Green Bay.

1999

Teams went a bit quarterback-crazy in '99, with the top three picks all being quarterbacks and with five of the top 12 picks being quarterbacks.

None ended up being Hall of Famers. Two ended up making Pro Bowls. None ever made a First Team All-Pro. And none won a Super Bowl. They were:

1-1: Tim Couch, Browns
1-2: Donovan McNabb, Eagles
1-3: Akili Smith, Bengals
1-11: Daunte Culpepper, Vikings
1-12: Cade McNown, Bears

The second quarterback taken (McNabb) was the best of the bunch, followed by the fourth quarterback taken (Culpepper). The other three weren't worth the draft picks, to say the least. The Browns and Bengals missed out on Hall of Famers Edgerrin James and Champ Bailey, as well as Torry Holt and Ricky Williams.

The lesson? Just because everyone else is taking quarterbacks doesn't mean you have to. But if you're going to take a quarterback high in the draft, you better hope it's the right one.

2000

This year only makes the list because a guy named Tom Brady went 199th overall. He was the seventh quarterback selected. He was better than the other guys.

What's even crazier is Brady said this week on his podcast that he went to the 49ers' facility for a regional workout that was allowed before the draft. That means Bill Walsh, Steve Mariucci, Marty Mornhinweg and the rest of the Niners' staff got an up-close look at Brady before the draft and said, "... nah! We'll take Giovanni Carmazzi!"

It remains the craziest story in NFL Draft history. Tom Brady was really good, you guys.

2001

This one's interesting because Michael Vick was the obvious pick for the Falcons at No. 1 overall. 

But Drew Brees -- the next quarterback taken, at No. 32 overall to start the second round -- ended up being a Hall of Fame quarterback.

2002

The lesson learned in 2002 is to not take a quarterback just because you need a quarterback.

The Carolina Panthers had the No. 2 pick and needed a quarterback. Instead, they took Julius Peppers. He -- along with Ed Reed at No. 24 -- has a case for being the best player drafted that year. The Texans and Lions also needed quarterbacks. They went with David Carr at No. 1 (Houston) and Joey Harrington at No. 3 (Detroit). Neither pick worked.

Another interesting anecdote about this season: Sixteen quarterbacks were drafted. The best of the bunch was ... David Garrard?

2003

The first quarterback picked was Carson Palmer. First overall. Good pick.

The Jaguars wanted a quarterback too, so at No. 7 they took Byron Leftwich. He did not take the Jags to the promised land.

2004

If you're a Patriots fan praying that everything works out for the quarterback situation, then 2004 is the year you need to lean on. You need to bust out your frosted tips, fire up the series finale of "Friends," blast "Yeah!" by Usher (hey!), and channel the spirit of the spring of 2004. Because that year, all three teams that took a quarterback in the top 10ish ended up happy.

Well, not initially. Eli Manning and Papa Archibald did the whole foot-stompin' thing after the Chargers took him first overall. But they sorted that out, with the Giants taking Philip Rivers fourth overall and then swapping the two QBs. Both franchises ended up being pleased with their picks in the end.

But at No. 11, the Steelers still wanted a quarterback, so they went with Ben Roethlisberger out of Miami of Ohio. A third franchise quarterback taken at the top of the draft. You just don't often see it, people.

This was the rare year when the teams that picked the first, second and third quarterbacks high in the draft all ended up happy.

2005

It wasn't quite as weird as the 2000 draft, but when you look at it in retrospect, it's wild.

Alex Smith went first overall to the 49ers. He was just OK. He lasted a long time in the league, and he started 75 games for the team that drafted him. So he wasn't a bust. But he certainly was never great, and all of his best years came as a member of the Chiefs late in his career.

But after Smith, a quarterback wasn't taken until Aaron Rodgers went 24th to Green Bay. Teams like the Browns, Dolphins, Redskins, Panthers, Raiders, whoever: They all could've drafted Aaron Rodgers. They didn't.

There's no lesson there, per se, other than the fact that sometimes you have to get lucky to land your quarterback.

2006

This was another year that can provide some positivity for Patriots fans, as the best quarterback taken high was the third quarterback off the board. That's the good news.

The bad news? It was Jay Cutler. Not exactly a franchise guy. And as the No. 11 overall pick, he was actually gone from Denver after just three years.

The top QB pick was Vince Young at No. 3 overall by the Titans. And Matt Leinart was taken 10th by the Cardinals. Franchise quarterbacks, they were not.

2007

You surely remember the Raiders taking JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick, giving him 11 bazillion dollars, and getting seven total wins out of it. That the next two picks were Calvin Johnson (Hall of Famer) and Joe Thomas (Hall of Famer) makes that pick all the more painful, even all these years later.

That was a bad, bad year for quarterbacks. Of the 12 drafted, the best was probably Trent Edwards. None of the 12 even made a single Pro Bowl.

2008

With the third overall pick, the Falcons took Matt Ryan. He was a franchise guy, for sure.

With the 18th  overall pick, the Ravens were the next team to take a quarterback, selecting Joe Flacco. And he, despite some flaws, was a franchise guy who delivered a Super Bowl.

That could provide some optimism for Patriots fans, though Joe Flacco at No. 18 overall doesn't relate much to New England's current scenario.

2009

This year provides more of a nightmare scenario for Patriots fans. The Lions took Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick. Success. But the Jets also wanted a quarterback, so they traded up to get to No. 5 to take ... Mark Sanchez. Not quite what they were looking for.

Another quarterback didn't come off the board again until Josh Freeman went to the Bucs at No. 17.

The draft overall was kind of weak; five players made First Team All-Pro in their careers, but one was a punter (Pat McAfee) and two were interior linemen (Max Unger, Louis Vasquez).

Still, the Jets whiffed on their top-five quarterback, and they went so long without finding their guy that they had to go out and trade for Aaron Rodgers last year.

2010

This year was unique because it featured a couple of yikes quarterback picks, 24 selections apart. The Rams took Sam Bradford with the first overall pick. They should not have done that.

But worse, the Broncos traded up to take Tim Tebow with the 25th overall pick. Yiiiiiikes.

2011

Another absolute nightmare scenario for QB-needy teams who aren't picking first.

This year, Cam Newton went No. 1 overall to Carolina. He was their guy for a long time.

But then -- whoa, boy -- it got ugly.

No. 8 overall: Jake Locker to Tennessee.

No. 10 overall: Blaine Gabbert to Jacksonville.

No. 12 overall: Christian Ponder to Minnesota.

Those picks were bad enough on their own for the lost-opportunity factor (Tyron Smith was taken between Locker and Gabbert, and J.J. Watt was taken between Gabbert and Ponder), but they were made to look even worse because later picks like Andy Dalton (35th overall) and Colin Kaepernick (36th overall) ended up being much better NFL quarterbacks. Even Tyrod Taylor (180th overall) was much better than that first-round trio.

All this time later, 2011 serves as the ultimate reminder that picking a quarterback high in the draft guarantees absolutely nothing.

2012

A comparable situation to the current day in some respects, as there was a clear-cut No. 1 quarterback (Andrew Luck, who went first overall to Indy) and a QB-needy team right behind them.

Washington ended up taking Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick, and for a year, it looked like they hit the jackpot. But a knee injury at the end of the year kind of wrecked him, and he was never the same as he was during his rookie of the year performance.

Ryan Tannehill went eighth overall to Miami. He started 88 games for Miami, but he didn't quite become the guy for them, and his best seasons have come as a member of the Titans.

Yet despite all of that draft capital spent on QBs high in the draft, the best ones selected were Russell Wilson (75th overall) and Kirk Cousins (102nd overall).

The lesson wasn't as severe as the year prior, but it was a bit of an echo: A top-10 QB is no guarantee.

2014

This one will be short.

The Jaguars selected Blake Bortles with the No. 3 overall pick.

Self-explanatory.

2015

Jameis Winston went No. 1. Marcus Mariota went No. 2.

Neither was the guy.

And in an illustration of how much both teams reached, another quarterback wasn't selected until the 75th overall pick (Garrett Grayson).

2016

For the second straight year, the top two picks were used on quarterbacks. 

No. 1: Jared Goff, to the Rams.

No. 2: Carson Wentz, to the Eagles.

Goff was probably technically a franchise quarterback for the Rams. He started 69 games over five years and led them to a Super Bowl appearance while making two Pro Bowls. He was never great for the Rams, but he did justify the pick.

Wentz would have been the NFL MVP in 2017 if not for a late-season injury, so maybe he was worth it? He did throw 81 touchdowns and 21 interceptions for three years from 2017-19, and he won 35 of his 68 starts in Philly. So he was far from a bust. But he certainly didn't become the franchise mainstay that the organization hoped he'd become when using that No. 2 overall pick on him. He's become a bit of a punchline these days, but it would be hard to fault the Eagles for that pick.

Nevetheless, the best quarterback drafted that year was Dak Prescott, all the way down at No. 135 overall.

2017

Another dream scenario for Patriots fans came in 2017, when the teams picking quarterbacks second and third did a lot better than the team first picking a quarterback.

The Bears traded up a spot to take Mitch Trubisky at No. 2 overall. This was a bad, bad pick.

But then Patrick Mahomes was the next QB off the board at No. 10. Followed by Deshaun Watson at No. 12.

Lesson-wise, this year served as a reminder that the whole process is an inexact science. But sometimes being the second or third team in need of a quarterback is the better spot to be. (In this exercise, we'll just consider Watson as a player before the massage controversies.)

2018

Four quarterbacks were selected in the top 10. The best QB drafted went 32nd overall.

As for the top-10 guys, they were Baker Mayfield (first), Sam Darnold (third), Josh Allen (seventh) and Josh Rosen (10th). One was a risk but a home run (Allen), one was mediocre (Mayfield), one was bad (Darnold) and one was a nightmare (Rosen). Meanwhile, two-time league MVP Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall.

An interesting lesson can be found here, and it's a big one: Coaching matters. It matters a lot.

Baker Mayfield had different head coaches and offensive coordinators in the first three years of his career; no wonder he never panned out in Cleveland. He appears to be a decent NFL quarterback, but he likely would have had a much better start to his career if he had some sort of coaching stability.

At the same time, Allen was very bad as a rookie. But Brian Daboll -- clearly an excellent offensive coach -- stuck with the QB and worked with his unique skillset. And by the middle of this second year, Allen began to blossom. Now he's one of the league's best. So the draft is only one part of the equation.

The draft evaluation remains critical, though, because opting for Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen over Lamar Jackson is something that can't be properly understood in retrospect. (Though to be fair, it didn't look great in the moment.)

2019

This was another one of those years that doesn't look great for QB-needy teams. The Cardinals took Kyler Murray at No. 1 overall. The Giants went with Daniel Jones at No. 6.

They both get paid like franchise guys. Neither is really a franchise guy.

2020

Again, this is a year that can provide some hope in New England. All three teams that picked a quarterback in the top six spots are happy with who they have.

Joe Burrow, the first overall pick, is the best of the bunch. But Tua Tagovailoa (fifth overall) and Justin Herbert (sixth) seem to have the full confidence of their organizations moving forward.

(Unrelated to the task at hand, but Jordan Love at No. 26 is looking like a good pick, too.)

2021

There are years when you learn that top draft picks at QB don't work out, and there are years when you really learn about it. Enter the 2021 draft.

We think Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 overall) is a franchise guy in Jacksonville. We think so. We don't know so. But he might be.

We know Zach Wilson (No. 2 overall) is cooked. Not the guy. Not a guy. We don't know what Trey Lance (No. 3 overall) even looks like on a football field. But we know he's no longer with the team that drafted him.

And we think that both Justin Fields (No. 11 overall) and Mac Jones (No. 15 overall) will be on new teams next year.

That's five QBs in the top 15, and three in the top three, with potentially no franchise-altering guys among them. (We can hold out hope for Lawrence, but still.)

2023

With just one first-round quarterback taken in 2022 (Kenny Pickett at No. 20), we now look at our last year of history, when Bryce Young went No. 1 overall to Carolina, C.J. Stroud went second overall to Houston, and Anthony Richardson went fourth overall to the Colts. It appears the Panthers got that one wrong (second-rounder Will Levis looked better than Young as a rookie, too), though it's far too early to make definitive statements on any of the QBs after their rookie seasons.

2024

OK, so what's the point? Great question. Was just wondering that myself.

Obviously, teams are going to take swings at quarterbacks high in the first round. It's a necessary part of the team-building process. Teams have to get lucky with those picks, but it's a lot easier to get lucky in the top of the first round than it it is to get lucky in the middle of the fourth round.

And while teams would ideally like to have first dibs on all available quarterbacks, it doesn't always work out best for the team picking first. Sure, there are your Manning over Leaf or Bledsoe over Mirer or Palmer over Leftwich or Stafford over Sanchez or Newton over Locker situations, and those can serve as doomsday scenarios for the current state of the Patriots. With Caleb Williams just about unanimously expected to go the Bears at No. 1 overall, and with the Commanders potentially looking to spend that second pick on a quarterback as well, the Patriots could end up with whoever's remaining between Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. And having no say in that decision can be an unsettling scenario.

Yet at the same time, that situation's worked out wonderfully for some teams. The Steelers getting Roethlisberger as the third quarterback in the draft may be the biggest success story examined here, though Mahomes-Watson being the second and third QBs off the board in 2017 stands out as well. Josh Allen was the third QB taken (in a year when Lamar Jackson was the fourth), and the Chargers are not upset that they ended up with Justin Herbert instead of Tua Tagovailoa in 2020. 

None of that, of course, helps to clear up the uncertainty associated with the draft. Nothing could. But it's a note that history shows that not having the first choice and possibly not even having the second choice does not mean that the Patriots cannot get their guy with the third overall pick. Just like with any pick, they'll need good scouting, good coaching, and a whole lot of luck.