Here We Go...
Sorry guys this should have been posted an hour ago...
The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm Warning to a Blizzard Warning for all of Coastal Mass except Nantucket...the second Blizzard Warning in two weeks! Snowfall amounts should end up pretty similar to the December Blizzard in most spots, the wind should end up similar too probably not the multiple hurricane force wind gusts, but thankfully, the coastal flooding won't come close to the last time around due to low astronomical tides. The energy transfer has begun off the Mid-Atlantic as convective bands are showing up on radar already. The low track is still a bit in question and some of the latest model runs are tracking this thing over the Cape. This is a suspect track for all snow in Boston...especially with the lack of a strong high to our north or the presence of a colder airmass in place now. But, we are betting on the incredible dynamics keeping the significant mixing out of Boston. Regardless, the snow at the start will be intense and snowfall rates will likely be around 2 inches per hour, maybe even three around the morning commute...we get that for a few hours and we'll pick up a half a foot or more in a very short amount of time. Mixing will undoubtedly be a problem the deeper you go into SE Mass and a sloppy wet mess is expected on the Cape with potentially damaging winds that could exceed 60mph. The snow consistency should vary greatly from the coast to the interior...heavier wet snow to a lighter fluffier snow. The snow is cruising up over NYC right now and will push in after midnight with the heavier bands in here in the pre-dawn hours. Maximum lift begins sto wane during the afternoon hours and a gradual tapering will occur.
The 00z runs will be interesting to watch...will the NAM continue to spit out epic QPF? Will the westward trend to the track continue? Will the GFS hold ground with a track around Nantucket? Upper level dynamics suggest the NAM is on to the QPF...although it still looks a little high.
Lastly, as always, if you have the opportunity to post your obs during the storm it would be a huge help and much appreciated...thanks...and be safe!
