Heat Wave Ahead!
This will not be the hottest of heat waves ever...but it is one heck of a way to kick start the season! What a weekend out there! I wish I could be joining you. Plenty of sunshine in SNE today with highs climbing to 85-90 degrees this afternoon with breezy SW winds. The Cape will stay in the 70's all day with abundant sunshine. A great beach day all around. Dewpoints will begin to climb into the mid 60s during the afternoon making for a more humid and uncomfortable feel to the air. Across the north a stalled front remains in place. It has been creating a few more clouds today across VT, NH, and ME, but the clouds are trying to break. This stalled front will be a trigger for a few more scattered showers or storms to fire up during the afternoon. I expect SNE to remain dry for the day.
A big upper level ridge is in place through the midweek which will keep hazy, hot and humid weather in place through Wednesday. Highs should get warmer through this period climbing to 87 to 93 degrees away from any sort of onshore wind from the South. Dewpoints will rise into the Upper 60's and Lwr 70's making for very warm-hot tropical few to the air as the heat builds in our homes. This make be a good time to think about the AC's and fans...you are going to need them very soon! This flat flow to the jetstream has allowed the warmth and humidity to push all the way into New England. I see not much change for much of this week. Earlier it looked like by Wednesday, a deeper trough would deliver a cooler shot of air with a front and push through cooler air in the 70's to end the week. Now, it looks like a more flat flow will keep the warmth and humidity around for much of the week..just not as hot. The cold front which will begin to break down the heat will approach as a backdoor front Wednesday. The flat flow for the heat ridge across New England will help this front to stall over the region where it will become a stalled boundary from which periodic showers and thunderstorms will ride into next weekend. With the moisture laden air in place any type of thunderstorm will come with heavy downpours. While Monday-Wed will see isolated pulse type storms and showers...By the end of the week I expect more pronounced showers with embedded thunderstorms and downpours in the Thursday-Sunday time frame.
An upper low will dive in from the Great Lakes with a shot of cooler air. This will form a trough which will keep a moist SW flow up the eastern seaboard through early July. The coolest air should remain west of us, but this trough will definitely help to suppress the summer warmth and make for a more seasonal feel for the end of June and the early part of July. By the end of next weekend there is a possibility that some areas could pick up another 1-2" of rain which should help to make June one of the wettest on record for some. Temperatures are tricky heading to the weekend, with warmer air aloft up the east coast, pockets of rain, with breakdown to the more intense heat. The Euro is showing much cooler air with the rain, while the GFS keeps the warmer flatter look. Today I took a compromise of the two in the 70's and Lwr 80's and let the chips fall in the extended range. This trough will not be leaving very fast. I am afraid we could be looking at some unsettled weather for the 4th. If the trough shifts just enough east, moisture could be directed just off the coast....with drier weather to follow. We will need to watch in the coming days. Warm pattern should return by the 7th.
