Good Times, Bad Times
Starting off this morning much of southern New England is enjoying quite the beautiful sunrise as skies are clear and temperatures are relatively warm in the middle to upper 50's. Expect sunshine to win out for the first half of the day before clouds quickly increase from west to east around noontime associated with an approaching cold front. Despite the increase in clouds, however, temperatures will reach a splendid 75-80 degrees areawide, with lower 70's likely along the Cape and Islands. Winds will be gusty at 15-25mph from the southwest.
As we head into the evening, the cold front will weaken as it pushes east, and although cloud cover will be abundant, showers will be rather isolated in nature as they pass through the area during the 5-8pm timeframe.
Tonight, weak high pressure will try to build in behind the departing cold front. However, this cold front will stall offshore as the strong Mid-Atlantic ridge slows the progress of the front to a slow crawl. As a result, a potent 500mb shortwave trough will approach the region and spawn a surface low pressure center along the front. This will have the effect of quickly fading any morning sunshine to cloudy skies with showers approaching the area from southwest to northeast. Arrival time of the rain looks to be just after noontime for the greater Boston area, with a brief period of steadier, heavier rain likely in the 4-6pm timeframe, mainly south and east of the city. Because of this rain and thick cloud cover, high temperatures will be 20-25 degrees cooler tomorrow than what we'll see today with middle 50's across most of the area. If your going to the Patriots game Sunday or have any outdoor activities planned, be sure to dress warm! About .50-.75" of rain is likely, most happening in SNE.
Watchout Sunday night in the NW mountains...especially above 2500 ft...showers will be ending as snowflakes! The best chance of this will be in the Green Mountains of Vt and White mountains of NH. For the rest of us, Sunday night any leftover showers exit the coastline, setting us up for a chilly but pleasant Columbus Day with high temperatures struggling to get out of the 50's. Skies should be partly sunny to partly cloudy with light and variable winds. If you are lucky enough to have the day off, it would certainly be a good opportunity to go leaf peeping and enjoy the fantastic fall color that is erupting across the Berkshires and Monadnocks, with peak color to be found in the Green and White Mountains.
Heading into Tuesday, it looks to be another fantastic day with more sunshine as a high pressure center strengthens over the area. It will be quite chilly to start however as temperatures will bottom out in the middle to upper 30's in the north and west suburbs with patchy frost possible. By afternoon, skies should be mostly sunny and seasonably warm with temperatures quickly rebounding into the lower 60's.
Wednesday looks to be slightly more unsettled as a cold front approaches the area during the afternoon. Despite this, much of the day should be dry with southwest winds boosting temperatures into the middle 60's. Towards day's end an isolated shower will be possible, although most areas should stay dry.
Looking long-term, we should be in for a great stretch of weather Thursday into Friday with plenty of sun and comfortable temperatures in the upper 50's to lower 60's. A cold front will pass through the area sometime during the day Friday, and if it gets as cold behind the front as some computer models are advertising, by the weekend much of the area may be in for the first widespread frost of the season! Have a great Saturday and enjoy the warm temperatures!
