Felger: Celtics Fans Are Overvaluing Brooklyn Pick
BOSTON (CBS) -- The NBA trade deadline is Thursday, and as ideas get floated around the sports world, it seems as though Celtics fans really don't want to give up the pick they own from Brooklyn in this year's draft.
The thought is, with the Nets currently owning the third-worst record in the NBA, the Ping-Pong balls could bounce favorably for the Celtics and net them a top-three pick. So, giving up that pick for a player that's not necessarily a franchise-altering player is not something many fans want to do.
But they might be wrong, according to Michael Felger.
His developing opinion on Wednesday noted that the Brooklyn pick may be wildly overvalued by fans. To wit, here are the top three picks from all of the NBA drafts since 2000. NBA All-Stars are noted with asterisks.
2015
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. Jahlil Okafor
2014
1. Andrew Wiggins
2. Jabari Parker
3. Joel Embiid
2013
1. Anthony Bennett
2. Victor Oladipo
3. Otto Porter
2012
1. Anthony Davis*
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
3. Bradley Beal
2011
1. Kyrie Irving*
2. Derrick Williams
3. Enes Kanter
2010
1. John Wall*
2. Evan Turner
3. Derrick Favors
2009
1. Blake Griffin*
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. James Harden*
2008
1. Derrick Rose*
2. Michael Beasley
3. O.J. Mayo
2007
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant*
3. Al Horford*
2006
1. Andrea Bargnani
2. LaMarcus Aldridge*
3. Adam Morrison
2005
1. Andrew Bogut
2. Marvin Williams
3. Deron Williams*
2004
1. Dwight Howard*
2. Emeka Okafor
3. Ben Gordon
2003
1. LeBron James*
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony*
2002
1. Yao Ming*
2. Jay Williams
3. Mike Dunleavy Jr.
2001
1. Kwame Brown
2. Tyson Chandler*
3. Pau Gasol*
2000
1. Kenyon Martin*
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
Add it all up, and if you leave out 2013-15 for fairness, and that's 39 top-three picks from 2000-12, and 15 of them made All-Star teams. That's 38 percent of the crop -- not exactly a bad percentage, but far from a sure thing in terms of getting a superstar type of player with a top-three pick. It averaged out to one All-Star player per year in the top three of the draft.
The impetus for Felger's thought was the debate over whether it would be worth it to give up the Brooklyn pick for Blake Griffin in a theoretical trade proposal. Jim Murray said he wouldn't give it up for Griffin.
"I'd like to roll the dice and hope for Ben Simmons," Murray said of the player who will likely go No. 1 overall in this year's draft. "I just covet that pick too much and the chance of getting a young, 18-year-old that could be the face of this franchise going forward."
Marshall Hook and Felger disagreed, saying they'd happily hand over the pick for Blake Griffin. Felger floated the idea that maybe the Celtics offered the Brooklyn pick but the Clippers said no, because it wasn't valuable enough.
"Maybe you folks have not only overrated and overvalued your current players, but maybe you continue to overrate and overvalue those picks," Felger said. "If I'm the Clippers and I've got Blake Griffin -- who's I don't know, a top 20 player in the league. Right now Brooklyn is tied with the Phoenix in the third lottery position, they have a 13.8 percent chance of getting the first pick, they have a 42.6 percent chance of landing in the top three. In other words, there's a 57 percent chance they're not even in the top three! I'm the Clippers and I've got Blake Griffin who's a top-20 player in the league, and I'm going to trade that for a pick that odds are is going to be out of the top three? And, oh by the way, I don't even know if the players in the top three are going to be top-20 players in the league.
"I think there's a chance the Celtics offered it and the Clippers said 'No! It's not worth it,'" Felger said.
Listen to the full discussion below:
