How much snow will Massachusetts get in February? See the forecast
BOSTON - If it feels like it's been a different kind of winter across Massachusetts, you're absolutely right!
Cold days and ice on ponds have given this winter in Boston and beyond a much different look than the past few, allowing us to enjoy some snow and avoid muddy ground most of January.
Boston winter colder than average... so far
Just having colder than average conditions in the conversation at times has been a significant shift. Boston just eked out a colder than average December and January is finishing 1 degree colder than average, making it the first time we've had consecutive cooler than average months in the city since spring of 2020 (and the first time during winter since 2017-18).
Worcester and Hartford were not colder than average either month and the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton was only colder in January. That's a long way of saying our recency bias has made this one feel arctic in comparison!
Snow totals in Massachusetts
Even with more cold, snow has been tough to come by in Massachusetts this winter. We've had nearly the same amount as last year to this point in Boston. But there has been much less snow than last year in Worcester.
Recent winters have largely been at or near record-warm (six of the ten warmest on record have occurred since 2010, the # 1 place occupied by 2015-16). In reality we've just been having a pretty standard Massachusetts winter, which has been tough to come by.
The last time we had a good stretch of cold here was the winter of 2017-18, when it got downright frigid for the end of December through early January. That stretch was also capped off by a blizzard that set the all-time high water mark in Boston Harbor! Less fanfare this winter, as we've had the cold but not the snow. At least we did manage our first White Christmas in the city since 2009.
How much snow in February?
We know what's already happened, so what comes next?
February is here, which is my favorite winter month as it usually has the most notable snowstorms but also a lot more daylight. Boston averages 14.4 inches of snow in February, that's the snowiest month of the year. We have a shot at reaching that mark for the first time in three years, but we think there will be more rain and mixed events.
The pattern is shifting as we head into the month, to one that features more volatile ups and downs for temperature instead of the steady chill we've had for the past several weeks. This is the sort of pattern that will favor more active times with more storm chances than we had in January.
That said, we're setting up a storm track that favors a lot of them approaching from the west, or "overrunning" type storms instead of nor'easters tracking up the coast. The dominant pattern should shift the arctic cold more westward and allow more mild Gulf air to move up in the east.
So I would expect a lot of the storms ahead will be of the mixed precipitation variety, not just snow (though it could produce quite a bit of snow for ski areas across northern New England).
In that 2017-18 winter, we had the warmest February on record that even featured some towns hitting 80 degrees one day. I don't think this pattern is a repeat of that as there is too much cold still spilling down to the west that will be available to tap from time to time.
There are still going to be cold shots for us. But I do think February in Boston will end up being milder than average as a whole. How much so will decide whether this winter goes down as our first colder than average one in a decade...or not! (The last time it happened was the BIG one in 2014-15). February would have to finish more than two degrees Fahrenheit above average to stop that from happening.
