Hurley: ESPN's data-driven comparisons for Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels are concerning
BOSTON -- It's April. Finally. At long last, the month of the NFL Draft has arrived.
In New England, pretty much everybody is going gaga over the possibility of the Patriots selecting a quarterback when they're on the clock with the No. 3 overall pick. And though that night is still three and a half weeks away, this whole offseason figures to be well worth the wait if the Patriots end up drafting their franchise quarterback for the next decade-plus.
But of course, a sure thing doesn't exist in the draft of any sport, but especially in football and especially with quarterbacks. For every gem, there are at least two duds when it comes to QBs selected high in the first round.
Everybody knows that, yes, but it can be a bit jarring to be reminded of the decisions made on players like JaMarcus Russell (No. 1 overall), Vince Young (No. 3), Mark Sanchez (No. 5), Sam Bradford (No. 1), Jake Locker (No. 8), Blaine Gabbert (No. 10), Christian Ponder (No. 12), Blake Bortles (No. 3), Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2), Sam Darnold (No. 3), Zach Wilson (No. 2) and Trey Lance (No. 3), to name a few.
And the latest data-driven prospect comparisons from ESPN throw a little bit of cold water on the top QB prospects of this year's draft.
In a story written by Bill Connelly, ESPN looked at data to find unique traits in Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. Using that data, prospect comparisons were made between this year's prospects and prospects from past years.
For anyone in New England hoping The Guy will be available at No. 3, the comparisons are a little concerning.
The story says that Daniels compares most closely with Hendon Hooker and Justin Fields. Hooker was taken in the third round by Detroit last year and missed his rookie season while recovering from an ACL injury suffered his senior year at Tennessee. He did have excellent numbers in two years at Tennessee and Virginia Tech (80 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) while rushing for over 2,000 yards with 25 touchdowns, but he's 26 years old, he's yet to play a down in the NFL, and he's not expected to be a starting quarterback at the NFL level. And Fields, as we know, was drafted 11th overall by the Bears and was just traded to Pittsburgh in exchange for a conditional sixth-round pick.
The story then compares Maye to Jake Browning and Jordan Ta'amu. We saw Browning make his NFL debut last year for Cincinnati, in his fifth season after going undrafted. He handled himself pretty well, as he went 4-3 with a 70.4 percent completion rate, along with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. But, again, it took him five years to get onto the field after his collegiate career at Washington. Ta'amu entered professional football the same year as Browning (2019) but has not played in an NFL game. He's spent time with the Texans, Chiefs (twice), Lions (twice), Commanders, Panthers and Vikings along with the St. Louis Battlehawks (XFL), Tampa Bay Bandits (USFL), and D.C. Defenders (XFL).
"These are the guys who most closely match Maye's combination of efficiency, pressure avoidance and zone over man preferences," Connelly wrote. "This is discouraging in one way -- if you're drafting a guy with a top-five pick, you'd like a higher ceiling than this."
Certainly.
The story then compares McCarthy to Stetson Bennett and Tua Tagovailoa.
"McCarthy was basically a lower-risk version of these two, averaging fewer yards per completion but with lower interception rates and better rushing averages," Connelly wrote. "His physical traits (6-foot-2, 219 pounds) are much closer to Tagovailoa's than Bennett's, and he'll be a first-round pick because of it, though the lower-risk stats perhaps suggest a higher floor and lower ceiling than what Tagovailoa brought to the table."
After that, Bo Nix compares to Bailey Zappe and ... Trevor Lawrence?
"Heh, I would say that describes Nix's range pretty appropriately," Connelly wrote, while noting that Nix's "upside" is significantly lower than Lawrence's.
And lastly, Penix's prospect comps were Drew Lock and Ryan Finley.
Even the prospect comps for Williams, the presumed No. 1 overall pick, were uninspiring, with Williams comparing to the aforementioned Zach Wilson as well as Sam Ehlinger.
Yet Williams' pro comps are Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes, so there's that. No other quarterback had such enticing pro comps except for Penix, who drew Matt Barkley and ... also Patrick Mahomes.
Obviously, there's no such thing as a known fact when it comes to draft projections. Even Connelly wrote that the draft remains "an epic crapshoot" with quarterbacks. Yet most of those names that popped up as comparables for this year's draft class were not the types of names that eager fans want to hear as the draft approaches.
