Dolloff: Patriots Face Third And Longshots
Kevin Faulk has been money in the bank on third down for the Patriots for over a decade. But with Faulk now out for the season with a torn ACL, how will the Patriots replace one of the most reliable third-down backs in the league? The answer is, they won't.
The bad news for the Patriots is, none of their options are nearly as attractive as letting Faulk do what he does. It's a classic example of not knowing what you have until it's gone.
There are a few things the Patriots could feasibly do to reconfigure their third down situation, among them trading either disgruntled guard Logan Mankins or their intriguing first-round draft pick from the Oakland Raiders for a reliable back.
Let's leave that out of the equation for now, since they don't seem to be in a hurry to make that type of move before facing Buffalo at Foxboro on Sunday.
- Put Tom Brady in the shotgun with an empty backfield
Not a terrible idea, but is that going to be as reliable as Faulk was? Probably not. With Jets castaway Danny Woodhead now occupying a spot on the runningback depth chart, their offense already appears one-dimensional.
If Brady drops back and slings every third down for a deep throw, he likely would have trouble consistently finding an open guy with the opposition already knowing what he's going to attempt.
Bombing it almost aimlessly to Randy Moss against the Jets in Week 2 contributed a lot to Brady's 16.9 passer rating in the second half, so there's no reason to believe this strategy would bring consistent success.
- Screen passes to Julian Edelman and/or Wes Welker
This is something Faulk excelled at, so it's likely it will remain part of their gameplan. And Edelman and Welker are the two most logical candidates to take over this role, with both guys' speed and elusiveness after the catch lending itself well.
The problem is, teams have started catching on to this play when the Patriots call it, and the blocking from the Patriots on this play hasn't exactly been stellar. Tight end Aaron Hernandez let a Jets linebacker breeze past him to wrap Welker up at the line on an attempted screen back on Sunday.
And let's not forget Mankins' absence which has clearly affected the left-side blocking in this particular situation. So while it may be a good play to run sometimes, it doesn't seem like a consistently reliable option.
- Run a three-tight end formation
This would most likely set up Hernandez as the top passing option in this scheme. Especially if Welker clogs up the slot and Moss draws double-coverage, Hernandez could get the kind of open space he's gotten in such situations in his first two games in his NFL career.
The problem with this one is, if Hernandez is well-covered, who does Brady go to? Maybe he could find Moss or Welker, but it's highly likely Patriots opponents will take them out as best as they can on every single third down.
Brady might have to use one of the other tight ends, Rob Gronkowski or Alge Crumpler, as a security blanket after throwing up a block. But with pass-rushers in his face, it would be a tough play for even someone like Brady to pull off consistently.
Not that none of these plays would ever work for the Patriots. They could mix all of them in and find some success. But they'll need to figure that out pronto.
Faulk was their go-to guy on third down for years, and he's suddenly a non-factor. Let's hope Bill Belichick always had a Plan B stashed away.
