Cool Quiet Week Ahead...Warming By Weekend
A nice, but cool start to the week with sunny to partly sunny skies today. Temperatures have started off near 32 and will be climbing into the lwr to mid 40's this afternoon with a lighter westerly wind. The lack of wind will make for more comfortable day. Still there will be a slight breeze at 10-20 mph from the west.
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Not much has changed from the previous thinking on the snowfall for Tuesday. A weak trough will be sliding into the midwest and shifting east. A weak low from the southern Gulf states will track off the mid-Atlantic coast and track well off the coast of New England late Tuesday and Wednesday. The northern fringe of moisture from this low should be able to reach into SNE and mix with air just cold enough to support snow...especially inland. There are some boundary layer issues right at ground level where it will be warmer...especially at the coast where snow will mix with rain. The warmer boundary layer and ground temps will help to prevent much in the way of any accumulations...except of colder surfaces south of the Pike.
The snow will begin in CT during the mid-late morning and spread east during the midday and afternoon. Light snow will be falling for the Tuesday evening rush hour mainly south of the Pike. Along the Pike there may be a period of light snow...Tuesday PM...but it will be light, mixing with flurries. Steadiest snow will fall in CT, and RI and maybe SE MA where grassy surfaces of colder surfaces could see and coating to an inch. The Cape will see a wet mix of snow and rain.
This will be winding later Tuesday night. A few of our models are showing a bit of a NorLun trough over the Cape into Wednesday morning keeping the wet mix going, but there is not much support for this. Still, something to watch for. Lingering clouds Wednesday will try to break, and temps will remain cool near 40. A few snow showers will be triggered in the NW hills by a cold front later in the day. This cold front will push through Thursday and bring a renewed push of cold air from Canada heading into Friday and Saturday with building high pressure.
The Jetstream will flatten out by the weekend with cold air lifting out and milder Pacific air taking over the nation. Cold air will hold tough on Saturday 30's near 40 across the region with warm air advection overriding the cooler air making for increasing clouds. Temps should finally be able to climb back up to near 50 by Sunday.
An upper level ridge along the east coast Monday will push temps up into the 50's for at least a mild start for the first few days of December. We will see how long it lasts. We will likely be transitioning back to colder times after December 9th.
