What to watch for in the NBA Finals with the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks
BOSTON -- After a grueling wait that has felt like months, the NBA Finals will finally tip off in Boston on Thursday night. The Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks should treat us to quite the battle, with a lot of star power ready to leave it all out there for a championship.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have led the Celtics to the biggest stage for the second time in the last three years, and are determined to bring a banner (the organization's 18th) back to Boston. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are standing in their way, as the Mavs look to finish off their mid-season turnaround with Dallas' second title.
The top-seeded Celtics were the best team in basketball throughout the season and are well-rested heading into the NBA Finals after a lengthy break following their Eastern Conference Finals sweep of the Indiana Pacers. The Mavericks enjoyed a long break too after finishing off the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals in five games. They are just the second fifth seed to make it to the NBA Finals.
Dallas will be the best team the Celtics face this postseason, with a two-headed monster in Doncic and Irving leading a talented and deadly offensive attack. The Mavs are battle-tested too, beating a trio of 50-plus win teams to get to the Finals.
While the Celtics have pretty much rolled to their 76 wins this season (64 in the regular season before 12 more in the playoffs), the Mavericks morphed into a new team in the weeks following the trade deadline. Acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford gave Dallas backbone on defense, and the Mavs have made incredible strides toward becoming a complete team.
But the Celtics are the better team from top to bottom, and their defense will likely be the difference in this matchup. Here's what we'll be watching for throughout the NBA Finals.
Celtics stars vs. Mavericks stars
We'll start with the main attraction with this showdown, which is the star power on both sides. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown vs. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving is a pretty sweet Finals matchup.
Luka and Kyrie are both insanely talented scorers who can put the ball in the hoop in a number of ways from just about anywhere on the floor. Tatum and Brown may not have the scoring prowess of those two but they are also pretty good at racking up points and setting up others. And the Jays are two-way stars who bring a big impact on the defensive end as well.
Doncic is the best player in this series. He can sink shots from anywhere with just about anyone on him, and he does so in an incredibly crafty and unpredictable way. He is in no way the most athletic player on the floor, but he can pick apart just about any defense. It's in his DNA to want to rip out the hearts of his opposition. He logged a triple-double in both regular-season meetings with the Celtics.
With Irving and his three-level attack in the same backcourt as Doncic and his creativity, the Boston defense is in for a massive challenge this series. But the Celtics have the bodies to make life difficult on both of the Mavs stars, and Tatum and Brown will be part of that equation along with Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis.
Offensively, Tatum and Brown will have to have an efficient series for Boston to be at its best. And they were both excellent against the Mavs during the regular season, with Tatum averaging 35.5 points off 52.5 percent shooting and 41.2 percent from three. This matchup could be what he needs to get out of his shooting slump, and we could finally get one of the Tatum takeover games we've been clamoring for.
Brown averaged just under 30 points over his two games against Dallas, hitting 57 percent from the floor. He's been incredible this postseason on both ends of the floor, and will have to keep that going against the Mavs. Brown will likely be spending a lot of time on Doncic on the defensive end, so his offense may dip a bit with that tough assignment.
But if Tatum and Brown have the likes of P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., or Josh Green guarding them, they should put up some Luka-Kyrie-like stat lines for the Celtics.
If you like star power, this NBA Finals matchup will provide plenty.
Making Luka and Kyrie work on defense
Tatum and Brown should be hunting out Luka or Kyrie every time they have the ball in their hands, at least as much as they can without throwing off the flow and rhythm of the Boston offense. It will be a balancing act, but one the Celtics should try to work to their advantage.
Doncic and Irving put in the work to become better defensive players down the stretch, but they are still liabilities on that end of the floor. The Celtics should test them 1-on-1 or make them run through a sea of screens, anything to make them work on defense. Make Luka run around on defense as much as possible, and take it to Kyrie in the post.
The more energy that duo expends on the defensive end, the less juice they'll have on the offensive end. Make them work on defense and they won't be energizer bunnies on offense. (In theory, at least. Even making Luka work on defense doesn't guarantee that he won't drop a triple-double on Boston.)
One of Doncic and Irving will go off on a given night. The goal for the Celtics is making sure it's not both of them, as the Mavs are 5-0 this postseason when both Doncic and Irving score 30 points. The Celtics can let one of them cook but have to make sure the other isn't eating. And making sure both have to work on defense will go a long way toward accomplishing that goal.
The Porzingis effect
Kristaps Porzingis is set to return and make the Celtics whole again in Game 1. The Celtics didn't miss him too much against the Heat, the Cavaliers, or the Pacers, but they'll need his floor-stretching and rim-protecting services against the Mavericks. He'll be a matchup nightmare for Dallas in the paint too, with the ability to post up or shoot over Mavs centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.
But he's coming off a calf injury that forced him to miss 10 games and weeks of practice. The most work Porzingis has done over the last 37 days was taking part in scrimmages at practice. That is nowhere near the intensity he'll see in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
We'll see how much rust Porzingis has to shake off and if he's on a minutes restriction his first few games back. It's almost a certainty that the Mavericks are going to test him early and often, so we'll see if he's ready for all that attention.
Which other stars shine the brightest in the NBA Finals?
Remember all that star power we talked about? Don't forget about that next tier of stars, which could be the difference in this series.
And that benefits Boston, with Holiday and White forming a backcourt that is almost unfair. Both are defensive wizards and will go a long way in helping the Celtics "contain" Doncic and Irving. And with Luka and Kyrie likely combining for at least 70 points per game (that's what "containing" those two means, and that number could easily flirt with the 80s on some nights), both will have to drop some points of their own.
Quality is more important than quantity for Holiday and White. Neither has to score 20 every night for Boston to win, but they have to be ready to make big shots when the time comes. Tatum and Brown are going to command a ton of defensive attention, which will leave Holiday and White with good looks.
Holiday was the late-game hero in Game 3 against the Pacers with a clutch three-point play and steal on the defensive end. White wore the cape for Boston in Game 4 with the game-winning/series-sealing corner three in the final seconds. So in addition to being a game-changing defensive duo, they can also pack an offensive punch out of the backcourt.
Washington was a solid deadline pickup for Dallas, giving the Mavs a versatile defender and scorer. He can defend multiple positions and will likely find himself spending a lot of time on Tatum during the Finals. He's also a talent scorer that can knock down threes and has a real solid floater.
Derrick Jones Jr. can fly and send down some wild dunks, and rookie center Derek Lively II brings some size and defense off the bench. They could cause some issues for Boston, with most of the focus centered on Doncic and Irving.
The Celtics and the Mavs are going to let the 3-balls fly
Both teams are going to let it fly from downtown this series. Boston led the NBA in three-point attempts and makes during the regular season, and that has carried over to the playoffs, with the C's averaging 39.8 attempts and 14.6 makes from three-point land. Nearly half of Boston's shots this postseason have come from downtown, with 47.4 percent of their shot attempts coming from three.
The Mavs ranked second and third, respectively, in three-point attempts and makes in the regular season. They have taken the fifth-most three-point shots (33.9) and own the third-most makes (12.6) in the playoffs.
The corner three is a weapon for both teams, as the C's led the league by connecting on 43.6 percent of their shots from the corners. They did a great job taking that away from opponents, holding teams to a league-worst 35.2 percent on corner threes in the regular season and an NBA-low 23.5 percent in the playoffs, via ESPN.
The Celtics should be able to take away a big part of Dallas' drive-and-kick offense if they continue to defend those corners.
Will the Celtics protect their home court?
Seriously, Celtics. You're in the NBA Finals. Now is not the time to lose any home games.
Both of Boston's losses this postseason were at TD Garden. The Celtics would have lost Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals if it weren't for Brown's heroics in the final seconds. Back in the 2022 NBA Finals, the Celtics lost two of their three home games to the Warriors, and were 6-6 at home that postseason.
The Celtics fought hard for the top seed to land home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Don't let all that hard work go to waste by dropping one of the first two games of the NBA Finals.
