Celtics now facing the biggest game of their lives in Game 4 of NBA Finals

BOSTON -- Wednesday night was a fun one for the home team. The Celtics shook off a shaky third quarter and reasserted themselves in the fourth, outscoring the Warriors 23-11 in the final quarter en route to a 16-point win. The crowd was electric, and the Celtics' play on the floor matched that intensity.

It was a night for the ages in Boston, and it was a long time coming. But it officially doesn't matter anymore.

For as much as Wednesday's victory was massive for the Celtics, the reality is that it won't mean a whole lot if they can't repeat that level of intensity, effort and execution on Friday night in Game 4. The massively significant difference between the comfort of a 3-1 series lead and the prospect of facing a three-game series without home-court advantage cannot be overstated.

That much is obvious on the surface. A 2-2 series tie, with Game 5 and a potential Game 7 scheduled in San Francisco, is not an ideal place for any team to be. The Celtics have seemed to relish the opportunity to thrive in adverse circumstances this postseason, but that kind of challenge against this kind of team would certainly be the tallest mountain on this championship trek. Refusing to give back home-court and seizing a 3-1 series lead in the process would obviously allow for a lot more wiggle room for the Celtics to complete that journey.

It's also obvious from the perspective of historical results. The reality is, by winning Game 3, the Celtics still don't have the best odds of winning the series. While it's true that the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 series has ended up winning the series 227 out of  296 times (76.7 percent), most of those victories came from teams that split at home before winning Game 3 on the road. (That history is only for series with the 2-2-1-1 format, which will apply to all of the following historical numbers.)

When a team has split on the road before winning Game 3 at home, they've only won the series 46 out of 81 times -- just 56.8 percent of the time. That shows that there's clearly a lot of work to be done.

When that team goes ahead and nabs a 3-1 series lead with a second home victory? They've won the series 37 out of 43 times -- or 86 percent of the time.

But when that team loses Game 4, after splitting on the road to start the series and then splitting Games 3 and 4 at home, they're just 20-63 in the series -- a winning percentage of just 24.1.

That's how significant home-court advantage has been in the final three games of a seven-game series. And that's what's at stake on Friday night.

Based on history, a 3-1 series lead gives Boston an 86 percent chance of a championship. A Game 4 loss, and it drops to 24.1 percent.

Of course -- of course, of course, of course -- results of series from past years won't be playing defense at the TD Garden. They won't be putting up threes and they won't be influencing the actual game in any way. Still, when the numbers are so overwhelming, they're hard to ignore.

At the same time, the Warriors themselves have proven that a 3-1 lead is no guarantee of anything. The Warriors took a 3-1 series lead over the Cavs in 2016 before dropping three straight games (aided in part by a Draymond Green suspension) to lose the Finals. The Warriors were on the winning end of such a comeback in the conference finals that same year, utilizing home-court to rally from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the Thunder (and convince Kevin Durant that it was time to head west). Comebacks from 3-1 deficits do happen, but not often. 

Putting aside the nine such instances in the 2020 bubble (where no home-court existed), teams are just 7-163 after falling behind 3-1 in a series. In the Finals, with the 2-2-1-1-1 format, they're 1-4 in that scenario. (Going back to the old 2-3-2 Finals format, teams went 0-14 after falling behind 3-1.)

Again, the significance of Game 4 cannot be overstated. The Celtics likely know that, but if they let this one slip away like they did with Game 6 against Miami and with Game 5 against Milwaukee, they just might find that they've played with fire one too many times to hang that desperately desired banner. This team has come a long way and beaten a number of odds to get to this point, but it's not hyperbole in the least to say that Friday night will be the biggest game in the lives of every member of the Boston Celtics.