Win Or Lose, Showdown With Sharks Won't Teach Us Anything About The Bruins
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- After a two-game breather at home, the Boston Bruins embark on another grueling road trip starting Tuesday night, when they play the Sharks in San Jose. After that, they go to Anaheim, Los Angeles, and MSG to face the Rangers.
The totality of this road trip could tell you a lot about this Bruins team - but if it does, it will not come from their showdown with the Sharks.
If the Bruins can pull off road wins in Anaheim and Los Angeles, against two physically and stylistically similar teams with superior defenses, that would tell you something. But the Bruins won't tell us anything about them as a team regardless of what happens Tuesday night because their season and San Jose's have simply been too similar.
Just looking at the numbers, you could call the Sharks the "Bruins of the West." Both teams have curiously poor records at home - 16-16-5 for the Bruins and 13-15-3 for the Sharks, and have survived mainly on their road dominance. So if the Sharks end up turning in another stinker at home, there likely won't be much to glean about the Bruins' own performance.
The teams' home/road splits have been similar, but the teams' performance relative to their schedules has been virtually identical. The Bruins have a goal differential of +25, just below the Sharks' +27. They are also tied in overall strength of schedule at -0.03. Thus, the Bruins and Sharks are currently tied in "Simple Rating System," which weighs average goal differential against strength of schedule, at 0.32 (0 is the league average).
San Jose has a clear, if marginal, advantage in advanced possession metrics. They possess a better CorsiFor percentage (50.4 to the Bruins' 48.9), meaning the Sharks have a larger advantage in total shot attempts per game than the Bruins. San Jose also has an offensive zone start percentage of 50.3, compared to Boston's 49.1. However, the Bruins have a clear advantage in net with Tuukka Rask, who has made 81 more saves than Sharks starter Martin Jones, while facing 84 more shots on goal in 153 fewer minutes. In short, Rask has done more with less than Jones has.
The only major statistical discrepancies between the Bruins and Sharks are in hitting and penalty-killing, and it translates directly to their playing styles. The Bruins have allowed the same number of power play goals (41) as the Sharks but have also allowed 31 more power play opportunities. Their 82.2 penalty-kill percentage sits 10th in the NHL while the Sharks are 23rd at 79.4 percent. The Bruins are also a far more physical team than the Sharks, averaging a staggering 6 more hits per game (26.2 to 20.2).
The stats bear out the Sharks' emphasis on speed and skill and the Bruins' continued focus on physicality. The Bs play a similar style to the Sharks' division rivals in Los Angeles and Anaheim, who the Sharks are a combined 3-4-1 against this season.
Of course, these numbers don't tell the whole story. The stats are so close and the playing styles are so far apart, the winner of Tuesday night's game could ultimately come down to who has fresher legs, who works harder, who wants it more. Things that don't show up anywhere unless you watch the games. Point is, win or lose, this game won't tell you anything about the Bruins. You'll have to wait until they get back home next Thursday to know where they stand.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Have a news tip or comment for Matt? Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.