What's Next For Boston Celtics?
By Matthew Geagan, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- The wounds from that frustrating Game 7 loss are starting to scab over, so it's time to shift focus to the Celtics' offseason.
Chances are it won't be as dramatic as last summer, when the Celtics underwent a complete roster makeover and brought in 11 new players. Given the team was just one win away from a trip to the NBA Finals without two All-Star players, and still owns a young core to surround those two returning stars, the Celtics really don't need to go through any major changes this summer. It's a notion Danny Ainge agreed with on Monday as the team packed up for the offseason.
"I like this group of guys," Ainge said. "We're not looking to make changes, other than a handful of tweaks."
But of course, being Danny Ainge, he also said don't count out something big potentially crossing the transaction wire.
"You never know what opportunities will present themselves," he said with that Ainge smirk. "We're not going to do something unless it makes us better. And there's no guarantee that those deals are there. At this time last year, I didn't think we would have 11 new players."
Oh Danny, why do you have to tease us like that? There's always the chance that Ainge has something up his sleeve or a team will look to ditch the face of their franchise and he'll pounce at such an opportunity. But we're likely in for a relatively quiet summer, at least by Celtics/Ainge standards. They have the pieces to compete now, and they need to navigate this offseason with a future Kyrie Irving extension in the back of their mind.
So as we try to forget the choke job from Sunday night, let's take a gander at what the summer will hold for the Boston Celtics.
Re-Signing Marcus Smart
Or at least attempt to. Smart is one of the most unique players to ever grace an NBA floor. He is the heartbeat of the team on defense and collects Tommy Points like they're free candy, willing to sacrifice his body for any loose ball. But he's also probably the worst shooter in the league, which is no understatement. That doesn't stop him from acting like Reggie Miller and putting up 10 threes a game, which he usually hits one or two of (and always come in the moment you doubt him the most). Despite that, he still finds a way to be a plus-player and is a key cog to Boston's success. Smart is one of the greatest conundrums in all of sports.
The pesky guard wants to stay in Boston, and Boston wants him back. But he also sounds like a guy who wants to get paid. He's a restricted free agent this offseason, so the Celtics can offer him a $6.1 million qualifying offer and match any deal he gets from other teams. But the Celtics are also on a tight budget and there will be a threshold for how much they're willing to pay Smart, no matter how valuable he is to the team.
The best-case scenario for the Celtics is Smart taking a team-friendly, two-year deal, but that doesn't sound like it's in the cards. If Smart takes that qualifying offer, he'd become an unrestricted free agent next summer, which could set him up for a bigger payday in the long run while giving the Celtics a chance to compete for a title next year with this past season's core intact. But that qualifying offer has its own set of risks, especially for Smart if he had a down year. So that scenario is also unlikely, unless his market fails to manifest.
Though the ridiculous contracts of two years ago are off the table (we won't see a repeat of the four-year, $70-million deal Evan Turner received), Smart will probably get a big offer or two on the restricted market. The Celtics will have two days to match that offer or move on. Ainge knows what Smart means to the team, but he also needs to find a price tag that won't handcuff him from giving out extensions to more important players when they are due the next few seasons.
Smart's impact on the floor is undeniable, but he carries a lot of baggage with his limited offensive game and occasional buffoonery off the court. He is a unique player that means a lot to the Celtics, and one they should try to bring back, but they will not break the bank and risk the future for him. It's a unique and challenging quandary for Ainge this offseason.
The Other Free Agents
Smart headlines the list, but the Celtics also have Aron Baynes hitting the market. The big man is an unrestricted free agent, and while the two sides would like to stick together, Baynes will probably have several suitors after putting together a fantastic defensive season for Boston. As much as the Celtics would love to keep him, he could easily end up out of their price range.
Also hitting the open market are Shane Larkin and Greg Monroe. Larkin was sorely missed as a depth guy this postseason, so expect him to be back on another short deal. Monroe on the other hand... Danny Ainge should block his number.
Trade Talk -- There's Always Trade Talk
With Ainge in charge, the Celtics will always find themselves in trade rumors, whether they're true or not. Even if they're happy with the current collection, that doesn't mean Boston won't be front-and-center whenever rumors start to circulate about Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns and every other player that has a .0001 percent chance of getting traded.
While Leonard may actually get dealt this offseason, Davis and Towns are pipe dreams. Even with rumblings of some discourse between Towns and the Wolves, would Minnesota really deal away the young face of their franchise just as they appear ready to compete? And the Pelicans would be crazy to deal Davis, a move that would certainly drive away what little passionate fan base they have months after their run to the Western Conference semis.
Most of the Celtics trade talk will likely center around Terry Rozier, whose stock is at an all-time high despite his Game 7 struggles. Rozier carried the C's for stretches in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and though he has a lot to work on this offseason, he's an appealing young star to other teams. He'll also be a restricted free agent next season, so the Celtics may try to cash in on their asset a year early for another first-rounder this year, in hopes of snagging another Rozier-type player that fans can crush him for on draft night.
If Rozier remains, he's going to want some more minutes next season. He certainly earned that extra PT with his strong play during Irving's absence, but finding minutes for everyone once Irving and Gordon Hayward is going to be a difficult task for Brad Stevens next season. Cashing in on Rozier now would alleviate that duty a bit.
Also, don't be surprised to hear Marcus Morris' named in trade rumors this summer.
Housekeeping
The Celtics will not have any cap space or breathing room under the tax line this offseason, unless they part ways with Smart or make other moves. If Smart goes elsewhere, the C's will be able to use their full mid-level exception (some of it would likely go to Baynes) and potentially their bi-annual exception.
The C's have three contracts on the books that aren't fully guaranteed -- yet. Daniel Theis' salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10, and the German big man will certainly be back after being one of the NBA's best bargains last season. Semi Ojeleye's salary becomes guaranteed after July 15, and he too is all-but assured a spot. That is not the case for Abdel Nader, who struggled mightily throughout the season. His contract becomes guaranteed on August 1, but there's no guarantee that gets picked up.
Draft Night
The NBA Draft doesn't mean a whole lot this year -- at least until Ainge finds a way to grab another lottery pick.
The Celtics currently own the No. 27 pick on June 21, and that is it. They do not own any second-round selections, which makes you wonder how Ainge will get the next Semi Ojeleye/Jordan Mickey/Ryan Gomes-type player for us all to overhype (except in Gomes' case because he was awesome).
But if Ainge does want to get another first-round pick -- or even jump into this year's lottery -- he has the luxury of dangling four potential 2019 first-rounders:
- Celtics Own First-Round Pick
- Sacramento Kings' Pick (No. 1 overall-protected)
- Memphis Grizzlies' Pick (Top 8-protected)
- Los Angeles Clippers' Pick (Lottery-protected)
So just because the Celtics are heading into draft night with just one pick doesn't mean we'll only have one new player to fawn over come June 22.
Get Healthy
The return of Irving and Hayward should propel Boston to the top of the Eastern Conference, with the lone asterisks potentially being where LeBron James ends up this offseason.
Adding two bonafide All-Stars to the progressing young stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is one heck of an offseason for the Celtics.
