Bill Belichick Can't Go With Jarrett Stidham ... Can He?
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Moving on from Tom Brady is not something that most head coaches could even fathom.
Most head coaches are not Bill Belichick.
Whether it was unseating Bernie Kosar for Vinny Testaverde way back when in Cleveland, or if it was the decision to not give the starting job back to Drew Bledsoe in 2001, Belichick has not been afraid to make a bold decision or two during his Hall of Fame career.
In fact, it seems like he might even embrace them.
He brought in Antonio Brown (and the circus that accompanied him) last year. He welcomed Tim Tebow several years back. Ochocinco, too. And Albert Haynesworth. Corey Dillon might fit into that category, as would bringing in Rodney Harrison to shake things up before sending Lawyer Milloy on his way. The brothers Bennett were not considered by most folks to fit within Belichick's world, but both got a chance to play in Foxboro -- Martellus even got two.
I've also heard some rumors about a fella named Randy, a supposed malcontent who might have set a record with the Patriots back in 2007. Difficult to recall.
Suffice it to say, where other teams seem to desperately try to avoid the dreaded distraccccction, Belichick tends to seek them out. Just to keep things spicy.
You've got to respect it.
All of that brings us to the current day, which has Tom Brady saying "peace out" to the Patriots, leaving New England with a $13.5 million cap hit and no clear succession plan.
Which raises the question: He can't really go with Jarrett Stidham as the starting quarterback ... can he?
(Hey, that happened to be the headline. That's why you're here. You probably want an answer! Here goes nothing.)
The answer is ... he most certainly can.
(Great answer!)
He might not. (Wait, what?)
He might. (What are we doing here, bud?)
But he could. (OK.)
And though the circumstances are different in most every way, it's worth remembering that Bill kind of sort of did this before.
He did it when he started Tom Brady back in 2001.
It's easy to forget now, after the nine Super Bowl appearances and the six parades through Boston, but Brady in 2001? He was a virtual nobody.
The word "virtual" applies because, sure, he played at Michigan and beat Alabama in the Orange Bowl. He wasn't a total nobody. But in a mostly pre-internet era, he was an unknown to 99 percent of Patriots fans, half of whom expected to see Damon Huard trot out from the sidelines after Bledsoe got Mo Lewis'd.
Instead, it was Brady. By all accounts, Belichick loved what he saw from the second-year quarterback. He elevated Brady over Huard on the depth chart at the end of the preseason, and some reporters indicate Belichick was looking for a reason to give Brady the starting job. That opportunity obviously arose, and Belichick took advantage. The rest is history.
Now in the year 2020, it's actually impossible (and downright stupid) to try to say that Stidham is a good enough quarterback to have even one-sixth of the success that Brady had in New England. Obviously.
Yet, if you were to assume that Belichick wants to start Stidham in 2020, and if you were then to compare the bodies of work of Brady and Stidham prior to getting the call, you might find that such a move would not be unprecedented.
Consider that, when Belichick tapped Brady on the shoulder and told him to try to lead a comeback against the Jets on Sept. 30, 2001, here's what the entirety of Brady's NFL resume was at that point:
Tom Brady, prior to replacing an injured Bledsoe in 2001:
1-for-3 for 6 yards, 0 TD, 0 INTs
That is it.
If Belichick were to tab Stidham as the starter for Week 1 in 2020, here's what his NFL resume looks like:
Jarrett Stidham, 2019 season:
2-for-4 for 14 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
(For the sake of a full picture, you could also note that Damon Huard owned a 5-1 record and was 170-for-288 for 1,691 yards, 9 TDs and 8 INTs in his three years of NFL experience.)
Brady completed five of 10 passes for 46 yards that day against the Jets, and the comeback fell short. Nevertheless, Belichick sent him out there the following week to lead the Patriots to a home win against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.
By the time Bledsoe was cleared to play again, Belichick wanted to stick with Brady. To that point, Brady's total NFL career experience looked like this:
Tom Brady's career stats, prior to Week 10 vs. Rams:
5-2 record, 141-for-224, 1,432 yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs
Compare that to what Bledsoe's NFL resume looked like:
Drew Bledsoe's career stats, prior to Week 10 vs. Rams:
63-60 record, 2,544-for-4,518, 166 TDs, 138 INTs
Once again, Belichick didn't go with the easy, safe choice. Had he put Bledsoe back in as the starter, nobody would have batted an eye. It was the "right" thing to do. In a sport where coaches are loathe to even try to go for it on fourth down, most every coach in the world would have gone with Bledsoe.
And, well, we've been over this. Belichick isn't most coaches.
(After Belichick put his trust in Brady, the QB went out and threw for 185 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Rams. He'd actually only throw seven touchdowns and seven interceptions for the rest of the season. But then the Snow Bowl and the Super Bowl happened, and a legend was born.)
Now, again, will Stidham lead the Patriots to a Super Bowl next year? And then again in 2022? And again in 2023? And then again in 2032? And 2034? And 2036? No! He won't. You can mark that one down.
But, in terms of having in-game experience, he's actually more prepared than Brady was back in 2001, thanks to Brian Griese, Lloyd Carr, and Drew Henson.
Consider...
Tom Brady, Michigan, 1996-99
395-for-638 (61.9%)
4,773 yards
30 TDs, 17 INTSJarrett Stidham, Baylor/Auburn, 2015-18
545-for-848 (64.3%)
7,217 yards
48 TDs, 13 INTs
None of this is to even attempt to serve as an evaluative opinion of Stidham's ability to not only start in the NFL but to flourish. That requires a level of intense scrutiny of preseason film as well as a certain level of projecting. That level of projection really only matters if it comes from the coaches who watch him on the practice field every day. Even then, it only matters if those coaches are right.
This is merely to note that at the time Belichick sent Brady onto the field to take over for Bledsoe, he had thrown three passes at the NFL level, after throwing 638 passes in college.
If Belichick were to give "Stid" the nod for 2020, he's got four NFL passes under his belt, after throwing 848 passes in college.
Perhaps a veteran quarterback like Cam Newton or ... Jameis Winston ... or ... (gulp) ... Andy Dalton would be the "safer" choice. But Belichick doesn't seem to ever enjoy going the safe route. He seems to prefer following his instinct.
And so, if the days without a veteran quarterback turn into weeks and then turn into months, you shouldn't be shocked to see Belichick try one last time to capture some magic at the QB position.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
