Big Year Ahead For Big Papi
BOSTON (CBS) -- For all of the much-deserved criticism of the Red Sox' mishandling of the Theo Epstein compensation, there is at least one situation the team handled absolutely perfectly this winter.
They're going to maximize their production out of David Ortiz.
Sure, Ortiz's $14.575 price tag for 2012 is a bit high, especially considering the team appears to be in full-on penny-pinching mode, but you have to believe that the one-year term on the deal is the only one the Red Sox care about.
That's because, despite the swagger, the smile and the personality, David Ortiz is at least a little fragile mentally. He's already secured his place in Red Sox history, and he's still got that shiny plaque that John Henry gave him, but he still shows glimpses of an insecurity. He welcomed everybody inside when talking on Wednesday.
"I want to have a multi-year contract because this is where I want to be," Ortiz said upon his arrival in Fort Myers. "I've been in a multi-year [contract] before. It's not like I shut it down or anything. My best year was when I had long-term [contract] because I didn't have to worry about a contract. The only thing I had to worry about was playing baseball. People sometimes get the wrong idea about things I say. I don't care."
His final three words may have been "I don't care," but the previous few sentences strongly suggest otherwise.
Maybe the Red Sox took Ortiz's mind-set into consideration when approaching the offseason, or maybe they really only believe he's got one year left as a viable designated hitter. Perhaps they knew that a two-year deal worth "just" $18 million would insult him just enough to prove them wrong.
Either way, it's safe to expect big things from Ortiz. What that means, exactly, could vary a bit.
Realistically, Ortiz, at 36 years old, is going to dip in a few offensive categories. He almost certainly won't hit lefties at a .329 clip, like he did last year. His career average against lefties is .264, and even back in 2006, when he was cranking 54 homers, he only hit .278 against left-handers. So don't expect Ortiz to hit .309 overall, which he did last year.
Still, from a power perspective, you have to think it's safe to pencil him in for 30 and 100 again. (Well, maybe 30 and 99, depending on the mood of the official scorer in an early August contest at Fenway.) He's produced at that level consistently for nearly a decade, and he's been able to reach those numbers the past three years despite anemic production in April (he has three combined homers in the past three Aprils). If he can at least contribute in some way in April (admittedly, a big "if"), there's no reason to think he won't hit his standard power numbers.
And hey, if he's sitting on zero homers by mid-April and the questions about the slow start creep into the locker room? He'll be back on track in no time.
It's never easy to jump inside another person's head and pretend to know what's going on. We can never know for sure. We can only base our opinions on what we've observed, and what we've seen out of Ortiz has been an attitude that thrives on doubters. Terry Francona slides him to seventh or eighth in the lineup? He gets upset, and he goes on a tear. Reporters give him a hard time for a slow start? Again, another tear. He thinks he deserves an RBI on a play that was ruled to be an error? He's barging into a press conference, with the cameras and recorders rolling, because he can't contain his rage.
Even Bobby Valentine got into the fun of doubting the big man on Wednesday.
"I hope," Valentine said, "he can swing the bat the way he did last year. I don't know if he can hit left-handers equally well."
Intentional or not, he might as well have added, "Are you listening, David?"
To Ortiz's credit, it's not as if he slacks off when he's given security. After he signed a five-year megadeal following his '06 campaign, he posted a career-high 1.066 OPS in 2007. He's also averaged 29 homers and 101 RBIs per season since then. Contract or no contract, Ortiz produces, but with one more contract to play for, he has one more reason to believe he's being doubted.
