Beating Up Bad Teams, Do Red Sox Need Reality Check?
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- There's no team in baseball hotter right now than the Boston Red Sox. They're not just winning; they're winning by touchdowns.
After starting the season with an 8-9 record and smelling a whole lot like last year's team, they've since rattled off wins in 14 of their last 18 games. They've vaulted to the top of the AL East, and they've built up a plus-58 run differential that is best in the American League and second in baseball only to the Chicago Cubs.
They've been dominant, and they've reinvigorated a city and a fan base that's spent the last two years watching a lackadaisical baseball team go through the motions and fail to excite.
Of course, any such excitement must be tempered with a "buuuuutttt." And in this case, the "but" is that much of that success has come against bad baseball teams.
Of their last 15 wins, only two have come against a quality opponent (the Chicago White Sox). The other 13 wins have come against the Astros, A's, Yankees and Braves -- four teams that are a combined 37 games under .500.
It begs the question: Should all of what the Red Sox have done over the past few weeks be taken with a grain of salt? Should the wins be discounted, knowing they didn't come against top-notch opponents?
In a word -- no.
In a bigger word:
NO!!
Obviously, a hot stretch in late April and early May does not mean much in the grand scheme of things. Yes, if the playoffs started today, the Red Sox would likely roll right through, because they're scoring 10 runs every night. Alas, the playoffs remain four-and-a-half months away.
But the mere fact that the playoffs are something that can be discussed in the city of Boston is something that should not be taken lightly. Last year at this time, the Red Sox were 15-18. People were saying things like, "Yeah, they're in fourth place, but they're only 5.5 games out." The problem with that theory, as was evident at the time but manifested itself throughout the year, is that the Red Sox were not a very good baseball team, and thus their ranking at the bottom of the division was fitting. Making up that ground was never going to happen.
In 2014 at this time of year, the Red Sox were 19-18. They'd lose 11 of their next 12 games and never sniff .500 again, eventually owning last place from July 23 until the end of the season.
This year, they're 22-13. Their offense is explosive. Their defense is exceptional. Their pitching remains a concern in terms of winning a playoff series or even being good enough to carry the team throughout the year. But the staff is still firmly mediocre, which is to say, good enough to win.
Of course, yes, many of the wins have come against bad teams, but you have to understand that in the lean years of 2012, 2014 and 2015, the Red Sox could not beat the bad teams. That's how they ended up in the basement. That's how they became a laughingstock.
The Red Sox beating up on bad teams this year is a good thing. It's not a caveat, or an asterisk, or a stipulation that says a 22-13 record isn't actually good. To say otherwise is to miss the point.
Last year, when facing teams in the bottom half of the MLB standings, the Red Sox managed to only go 42-37. That left them going 36-47 against the teams in the top half of the league.
This year against the bottom half of the MLB standings, the Red Sox are currently 17-7. Extrapolate that over the same number of games against the bottom half last year (79 games), and they would theoretically go 56-23. Even if they flopped against the good teams to the tune of last year's 36-47 record, that adds up to an overall record of 92-70.
You're seeing how this works now, right?
Assuming they level off a bit and lose a few more games against the bottom feeders, and assuming they put up a win percentage better than .434 against the better teams, the Red Sox could find themselves in that 90-win range. In the past two seasons, 90 wins would have been enough to earn a wild-card berth.
So no, it's not a great idea to clear your October schedule in advance of guaranteed postseason baseball. The only people who should be planning on a long October are Cubs fans, but they're restricted by the fact that they're Cubs fans. So nobody has anything guaranteed at this point of the year.
And yes, the Red Sox will likely need to add a pitcher or two to really inspire confidence on a level that goes higher than "maybe they can snag a wild-card berth."
But the point here is that for the first time in a long time, the Red Sox are playing legitimate baseball, and they're providing plenty of reason to believe baseball this summer will not be meaningless.
For many of us who have wasted too many hours on too much bad baseball, that's very much a good thing.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
