Ball Security, Weather Won't Be Issues For Chiefs In Foxboro Vs. Patriots
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- The Divisional round of the AFC Playoffs has mostly been kind to the Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but there have been some tight, tough battles along the way. That's how Saturday's showdown with the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs appears to be headed.
The Patriots historically prey on inferior, less disciplined opponents who turn the ball over or otherwise play generally sloppy football. If you turn the ball over to Brady's offense, there's a good chance they will capitalize on your mistakes. Andy Reid's Chiefs are not one of those teams.
The Chiefs finished the 2015 regular season second in the NFL in fewest total giveaways with 15, behind only - guess who - the Patriots, who finished first with 14. The Pats and Chiefs finished tied for first in the league in fewest interceptions thrown with 7 each. So expect a refreshingly clean game on Saturday.
The Alex Smith-led Kansas City offense has lost only six fumbles all season, and the last time it happened was in Week 13 at the Oakland Raiders when Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce both coughed the ball up. The Patriots defense hasn't had to rely on turnovers this season like it has in the past - they finished 10th in the league with 19.7 points allowed per game while finishing only 22nd in total takeaways with 21 - but it certainly won't get many against the Chiefs, if any at all.
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Another factor that often affects unprepared Patriots opponents is bad weather. Not every team plays in the cold and rain or snow as much as the Patriots. But the Chiefs are 5-2 in their past seven games played in 36-degree weather or colder, and 3-0 in 2015.
The Saturday weather forecast as of Wednesday is only 41 degrees, but there is a 100% chance of rain. So the Chiefs are getting a rain game - but they won their last wet one when they beat the Chargers 10-3 in Kansas City. The Chiefs ran 25 running plays in that game without putting the ball on the ground, and their only fumble lost was on a punt return by Frankie Hammond. Smith did fumble the ball once, but recovered it himself.
However, the recent example that looks favorable for the Patriots is the Chiefs' last road game played in 36 degrees or lower. They lost 20-12 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16 of the 2014 season. Kansas City never found the end zone and Jamaal Charles lost a fumble in that game.
As previously mentioned, the Chiefs scored only 10 points in that rain-drenched affair in Week 14. Even the Chiefs' formidable defense will have a tough time holding the Patriots to under 10 points. The Chiefs' only touchdown of the game came on a 15-yard pass that receiver Albert Wilson turned into a 44-yard score. Are the Patriots going to blow that coverage down the field?
Of course, this all means very little once the teams take the field on Saturday. Knowing how things often go in the NFL, this game could be filled with fumbles, errant throws, and generally ugly football. But as they say, that's why they play the games.
SEE ALSO: Brady: Patriots Will Need 'Great Effort' To Beat Chiefs
The Chiefs defense will probably make life difficult for Brady moving the ball, but their offense will still need to be at their best to keep up. Even in a gritty, rain-soaked rock fight, the Patriots should be able to scratch at least 10 points across the scoreboard. The Kansas City offense ultimately may not score enough to survive at Gillette Stadium on Saturday, but what they will likely not do is turn the ball back to Brady or play sloppily in rough weather.
The Chiefs may not prevail in Foxboro, but if they don't, it will not be because they beat themselves.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
