Making sense of all the Baker Mayfield-Patriots reporting

BOSTON -- There's been a lot of reporting in recent days linking the New England Patriots to quarterback Baker Mayfield. A whole lot of it. Let's take a look at it all and see if we can determine what it all means.

For starters, there's this: Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, is coming off what may have been the best year of his career. He set personal highs in passing yards (4,044), touchdowns (28) and completions (364), leading the Bucs to a respectable 9-8 record in his first year in Tampa. After an absolutely tumultous start to his career (four head coaches and four offensive coordinators in first three seasons in Cleveland, seven starts in Carolina and a midseason trade to Rams in 2022), Mayfield established himself quickly in Tampa. He easily beat out Kyle Trask for the starting job, and he took 99.73 percent of the Bucs' offensive snaps on the year.

Given the chaos that marked the first five years of his career, it would be reasonable to expect Mayfield to choose the stability that could come from re-signing with Tampa Bay. The team's signing of star receiver Mike Evans on Monday could also help sway the quarterback's desires and emotions as well.

At the same time ... professional football players like to get paid. And if there's more money to be made outside of Tampa, Mayfield will have to seriously consider the offer.

With that:

Baker Mayfield "has supporters from within the Patriots' organization"

That's according to the Boston Herald's Doug Kyed, who reported on that matter on Friday. Kyed listed current Patriots personnel Eliot Wolf, Alex Van Pelt, T.C. McCartney, Pat Stewart and Ben McAdoo as people who have personally worked with Mayfield in the past.

"There is internal support for Mayfield on several different levels in the Patriots organization."

That similar bit of reporting came from Mark Daniels of MassLive on Sunday, Despite some people in Foxboro being fans of Mayfield, Daniels noted that "it would be a shock to some in the organization if the Patriots aggressively pursued Mayfield" due to what will likely be a large price tag.

Patriots signing Baker Mayfield considered a "long shot"

The Athletic's Jeff Howe likewise said that some within the Patriots organization are "very high" on Mayfield. However, Howe said that the Patriots' draft position at No. 3 overall, the cost of Mayfield in free agency, and the competition around the NFL to sign Mayfield are major factors in preventing the union from taking place.

"Never say never," Howe tweeted. "Just not likely."

"Don't sleep on the New England Patriots"

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah threw this one out during the combine over the weekend, suggesting that the Patriots could trade away their No. 3 pick if they sign Mayfield. Here's what he said:

"We've all assumed that Baker just goes right back to Tampa. I had someone say, 'You know, don't sleep on the New England Patriots.' And if the New England Patriots are in the Baker business, then the No. 3 pick is up for sale. And now the dominos start going and we can really have some fun. If all those teams we were just talking about at, you know, 11, 12, 13, now all of a sudden, 'Hey, let's call New England and see if we can't get up there and maybe get one of the guys that are really at the top of this list. They could just sit at 3 and take the quarterback. But when you think about the cupboard being bare and needing guys, now all of a sudden I get a veteran, now I can auction off [the third pick]. And all these holes I've got to fill, now I've got a boatload of picks to go fill 'em with." 

Reading into Mike Evans' agent's comments

Agents are, well, agents. Their job is to get their clients paid the most money possible. So their comments can't be taken as gospel.

Still, we must examine the comments made by Deryk Gilmore, who told Jordan Schultz, "[Evans] doesn't want to play with a rookie QB. Winning a Super Bowl is a key priority."

If that is one-trillion-percent true, then it means that Evans knows who will be playing quarterback for the Bucs next year. 

There's reason to believe it. Evans' career began with Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterbacks before Tom Brady entered his life. He managed to produce at All-Pro levels during those years, but the Bucs also went 34-62 in his first six seasons.

Now with one Super Bowl under his belt and a chance to cement his case as a Hall of Famer in the coming years, the 30-year-old Evans very likely took seriously the matter of which quarterback will be passing him the football before he put pen to paper.

At the same time, a two-year, $52 million deal speaks for itself. So it remains possible that Evans signed it with the hope that the Bucs' front office would sign either Mayfield or a similar-caliber quarterback.

What to expect

While there's certainly reason to believe the Patriots like Mayfield, it does still feel like his performance last year classed him out of the type of quarterback the Patriots would look to be getting in the free-agent market.

The Draft Network estimates a Mayfield contract to look like three years and $82.5 million ($27.5 million annually), with $45 million guaranteed. The Patriots certainly have the cap space to make such a deal work, but they also have so many other needs on the roster.

So, if the Patriots do want to tab a veteran quarterback to be the starter in 2024 while the No. 3 overall pick sits for a season, it'll most likely look more like Jacoby Brissett or Joe Flacco. Those two are much cheaper -- and, yes, worse -- options for the Patriots, but it may better fit their roster-building goals if they do pick a quarterback at No. 3.

Mayfield really only comes into play if the Patriots don't want a quarterback at No. 3. Drafting, say, Marvin Harrison Jr. and signing Mayfield could instantly add a threat to a Patriots offense that's been lacking in that department for years. And though Mayfield will be expensive, he'd be sticking around for multiple years in this scenario.

The hiccup in that plan? Well, the Patriots can't actually plan on it. Mayfield could re-sign with the Bucs at any point, while the Patriots will have to wait until March 13 to formally and officially talk to him. This plan could get blown up by the Bucs at any moment.

And that, more than anything, is what makes the Mayfield-Patriots connection most unlikely. It's most reasonable to expect the Bucs to get a deal done to keep Mayfield in Tampa, thus putting the whole Patriots angle to bed.

But of course, business is business, so nobody can actually know until or if Mayfield signs a deal with the Bucs. Until that happens, the Patriots are sure to remain on the radar as lurkers for Mayfield as they await the opening of free agency.